Exit polls

[bsnyder]

I haven't seen or read anything about exit polls for this election.

If you'll recall, in the 2000 election, the exit polls caused many of the problems with the networks calling Florida too early (when it was really tied).

They overhauled the system, but in the 2002 mid-term election it had problems again and the news agencies never relied on the exit polling numbers.

So, anyone know what the deal is for this year? Will the news organizations be using exit polling?

 

[caitycaity]

i don't know.

i do know that there is a lot of research out there about how exit polls affect voter trends during the election. this kind of thing really bothers me, but not enough for me to think that exit polling should be outlawed.

 

[bsnyder]

I did a google search and came up empty. Noone seems to be talking about it, which is strange because it was such an issue in the 2000 election and beyond....remember the congressional hearings?

 

[BuckNaked]

Originally posted by caitycaity
i don't know.

i do know that there is a lot of research out there about how exit polls affect voter trends during the election. this kind of thing really bothers me, but not enough for me to think that exit polling should be outlawed.

Same here. On the one hand, I can see where someone standing in line to vote in Nevada might see that FL, PA and OH have gone one way or the other, and leave to go home, figuring it won't matter how he votes. On the other hand, I think that people should care enough about their vote to say "Who cares, I'm still going to exercise my right to vote".

As painful as the 2000 election was, I think it really drove home the idea of "every vote can make a difference".

 

[Pugdog007]

I'm hoping the media learned their lesson last time. I will be furious if they start calling states before the polls even close again.

 

[TXTink]

I was listening to Imus this morning and Tim Russert was on and said he would "know" by 3pm (EST, I think) from the exit polls. All I could think of was ...really??... That sure leaves out a lot of voters!! Did we not learn our lesson??

To be fair, he did say that "he would know, but he wouldn't tell". Good Grief!

 

[caitycaity]

hey bet (and others who are interested) -

for the past several months my company has been sponsoring lunchtime debates about different issues in this campaign. some have been more informative than others, but i just found out that we are having one of these lunches today and it's all about exit polls!

the guy who's presenting is working with the NBC news decision desk.

i'm planning on going. i'll let you know if anything interesting comes up.

 

[bsnyder]

Great, Caity! I'm really interested to hear how the networks are going to handle making the projections this year.

I'll look for an update from you on this thread tomorrow - I won't be online tonight.

Just out of curiosity, what other topics have been discussed (I think it's really neat your company is doing that!)? And which ones have been the most informative?

 

[Galahad]

I heard Russert on the radio yesterday also and heard him say that all of the networks had agreed to:

1) Not call a state before they were sure that polls had closed there (like Florida with two time zones) and
2) Not watch the coverage of the other networks while deciding when to call a state for a candidate.

He also said that NBC would be waiting until actual votes were being reported before calling a state, even if they "knew" the answer by exit polls before that.

Also, I think I remember him saying 3 A.M. as to when we would have a winner (didn't hear him on Imus though....).

 

[bsnyder]

Thanks for the info, Galahad.

I kind of doubt they'll stick to #2. Of course they'll be watching each other's coverage.

Caity, did you learn anything new yesterday at the debate?

 

[caitycaity]

yes - there are a lot of rules that the networks have agreed to to try to prevent what happened (on their end) in 2000. the guy (who worked for nbc) said that he thought in the heat of the moment the "talent" might "forget" some of the rules though.

the major one, as galahad said is that they won't be calling races til polls have closed. they may be saying who is ahead and stuff like that, but they won't say "so and so has won missouri" or anything like that.

he said that he couldn't tell us what was asked on the exit polls, which i found very interesting. after the election though, they will be in the public domain.

he said that he thought fox would be the most aggresive in calling races, with cnn slightly behind them. both have apparently invested in their own statistical modeling and data.

interestingly, i was talking about this with someone in my class last night and she said her advisor was currently writing a book about exit polls and effect. he has found that there is no impact on turnout. i don't know what he found about sway of those turning out anyways.

 

[poohandwendy]

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I would love it if just once they would announce all of the results, alphabetically by state, after ALL polls had closed on the west coast. I think it would be much more exciting. I certainly wouldn't want exit polls outlawed or anything, I just think it would be nice if the results came in like a powerhouse rather than a trickle...

never will happen, but I can dream....

 

[DVC-Don]

I have only been exit polled once when we lived in Manchester, New Hampshire and I lied to the pollster who I voted for. I can't stand them.