Easier to book at a newly opened resort?

[skier_pete]

Here's something I was curious about. Probably need DVC veterans to answer it.

So, when a "new" resort first comes on-line - such as the Poly coming soon - they start selling points well in advance of the location actually opening. However, I would say it is more than typical that even doing this, the resort will not be fully "sold out" once it opens or even close to it, and in fact looking at past history, it seems it typically takes a few years for a resort to "sell out".

So, my question from this is - wouldn't that make it easier in the first year or two a new resort opens for the people at other resorts to book nights within the 7-month window? Even more-so than it would be after 2 or 3 years? Since all the rooms would be available for points, but all the points would be sold. Or does Disney do something else (stage the rooms to DVC instead of all at once) to prevent this from happening. Does anyone have any history with this, say at BLT or VGF?

Just curious.

 

[com_op_2000]

What you are calling "staged" is actually what DVC calls "declared" meaning it is no longer owned by DVC but is available for points reservations. Until a unit is "declared", it is still owned by DVC and available to them for reservations to be made by cash or held for use in case of a unit going in maintenance.

 

[DebbieB]

Here's something I was curious about. Probably need DVC veterans to answer it.

So, when a "new" resort first comes on-line - such as the Poly coming soon - they start selling points well in advance of the location actually opening. However, I would say it is more than typical that even doing this, the resort will not be fully "sold out" once it opens or even close to it, and in fact looking at past history, it seems it typically takes a few years for a resort to "sell out".

So, my question from this is - wouldn't that make it easier in the first year or two a new resort opens for the people at other resorts to book nights within the 7-month window? Even more-so than it would be after 2 or 3 years? Since all the rooms would be available for points, but all the points would be sold. Or does Disney do something else (stage the rooms to DVC instead of all at once) to prevent this from happening. Does anyone have any history with this, say at BLT or VGF?

Just curious.

I was able to book BLT for March last year and VGF for next week this year at 7 months. Both lake view studios.

 

[crisi]

MAYBE....there is more declared inventory than owners - but that is pretty balanced out by the excitement existing members have to try the new resort. So its often the case that its actually harder the first few years because a lot of members have "give it a try" on their list.

Some of those resorts will become favorites of a lot of members and be popular seven month choices forever - and some will become easier to book once the newness wears off. (I get the feeling that BLT is like this with the exception of the cheaper standard view rooms - its gotten easier to book over the past few years).

 

[LisaS]

Or does Disney do something else (stage the rooms to DVC instead of all at once) to prevent this from happening. Does anyone have any history with this, say at BLT or VGF?

I didn't follow BLT or VGF closely but for AKV they "declared" inventory into the condominium association in stages, based on the pace of sales. So for several years there was a large percentage of inventory that was still owned by Disney and not available to be booked on points. Within the declared inventory there would be more room nights available than there were AKV points sold to consume that inventory up until the currently-declared Units within the resort were sold out, at which time they would declare more Units into the association.

Units at AKV usually encompassed several rooms, for example four studios or two 2BR lockoffs but there are also Units in Jambo House that consist of a single GV. All of the contracts/points within a Unit are the same UY so I assume but don't know for sure that they had points available for all 8 UYs while AKV sales were active, meaning that there would be at least 8 Units being actively sold at any given time with some percentage of each Unit being declared but not yet sold out.

While inventory exceeds points sold to fully book that inventory during this time, what's not clear is how much of that inventory is still available 7 months out. Owners at that resort can use borrowed points for their first reservations, taking up some of that excess inventory in the first years. I bought AKV when sales started and booked a Club Level room as my first reservation, figuring that my best shot at getting it was when there were fewer owners. I can't remember for sure but probably had to borrow points for that reservation.

 

[disneynutz]

Disney usually only declares into the association what they think they will sell within a certain period. DVC members can only book what's declared.

It's all about the money, once declared, Disney has to pay the dues on any unsold units, that's another reason to have low dues at new resorts.

Units not declared can be put into the cash reservation inventory with other Disney resorts.

Bill

 

[Pumbas]

Is there a report that shows the ratio of Declared units to number of units Disney assumes?

 

[disneynutz]

Is there a report that shows the ratio of Declared units to number of units Disney assumes?

Wil Lovato does a great job of tracking sales that are public record on the County Recorders website. His latest sales numbers can be found here:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program-51703/financial-75803/news-19220/2587-monthly-sales-update-for-april-2014

Bill

 

[Millionaire2K]

MAYBE....there is more declared inventory than owners - but that is pretty balanced out by the excitement existing members have to try the new resort. So its often the case that its actually harder the first few years because a lot of members have "give it a try" on their list.

Some of those resorts will become favorites of a lot of members and be popular seven month choices forever - and some will become easier to book once the newness wears off. (I get the feeling that BLT is like this with the exception of the cheaper standard view rooms - its gotten easier to book over the past few years).

/\
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What he said.

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks for the comments! That all makes a lot of sense. They really want demand to stay high I would assume. The Poly I am sure will be PRIME location since it has a lot of fans. While I would like to stay there someday, I was at first thinking it would be hard to get in, then thinking maybe not, now back to probably not unless right at the 7 month window!

Thanks again everyone!

 

[Snookies]

If memory serves, VGF was an exception to past practice since DVC declared a substantial amount (most?) Into member inventory when sales started. As someone already posted, that may have reflected an expectation of high existing member demand for booking at 7 months. We'll see whether it's more or less difficult to book at 7 months as time goes by. Long timers will attest that there is usually a "it will be impossible to book at 7 months" sentiment about every new property. The reality has usually been it depends on what your looking for and when.

 

[Msmithmd]

I think the real question as to Poly difficulty to book at the non-home points window comes down to just how high DVC sets the point chart for the resort. Agree with Crisi's analysis as to the first few years.

After that, it may become significantly easier to reserve with non-home points if DVC sets the astronomical point chart for the property that one might assume, based on what they did with VGF.

Right now, one can book a two bedroom at OKW for less points than a one bedroom at VGF, in every season. Not to imply those resorts are equal; they are not. But if DVC carries further the concept of progressive point inflation, that will decrease the motivation of members at other properties to burn through a lot of points on a stay at the Poly.

My suspicion is that new members buying direct are less sensitive to point chart inflations than they are price-per-point inflations. With VGF, Disney inflated the direct prices on the other resorts before it went on sale, so they could market the points at the "bargain" price of $150 for the new buyers. And simultaneously inflated the point charts above anything else in Florida. It will be interesting indeed to see what they do at the Poly. To me, the point chart really will be the marker of difficulty to book the Polynesian without owning there in the mid to long term.

 

[Dean]

Here's something I was curious about. Probably need DVC veterans to answer it.

So, when a "new" resort first comes on-line - such as the Poly coming soon - they start selling points well in advance of the location actually opening. However, I would say it is more than typical that even doing this, the resort will not be fully "sold out" once it opens or even close to it, and in fact looking at past history, it seems it typically takes a few years for a resort to "sell out".

So, my question from this is - wouldn't that make it easier in the first year or two a new resort opens for the people at other resorts to book nights within the 7-month window? Even more-so than it would be after 2 or 3 years? Since all the rooms would be available for points, but all the points would be sold. Or does Disney do something else (stage the rooms to DVC instead of all at once) to prevent this from happening. Does anyone have any history with this, say at BLT or VGF?

Just curious.

My info and experience suggests that the extra points often received with a direct purchase and the excitement to stay at a newly owned resort (both new owners and other owners at the 7 mo window) far overshadows any surplus between declared and sold. This is likely to be especially true with GF & Poly. We saw the same for SSR but in a somewhat reverse way.