Early February Crowds?

[JohnathanS]

Hi everyone,

We are planning a long weekend at Kidani village the first week in February and noticed that touringplans.com has estimated crowd levels that weekend to be a 9. I didn't see anything special happening that weekend (Feb. 5-7), other than Superbowl Sunday. I was wondering if anyone knew why the crowds might be so high that weekend (any special events, etc.)? Thanks so much!

 

[Muskegon78]

It won't be. Check easywdw.com

 

[Stubbzilla]

I've gone at that time and it's not crowded...for wdw. I'd use easywdw for daily park choice, then touringplans to plan your day.

I think the TP "9" is on a relative scale, saying it's a "9" for that time of year. The "9" in early Feb is not the same as a "9" during the busy season.

 

[mom2rtk]

Maybe because it's the weekend before Mardi Gras?

 

[kiltclan]

We're looking at the same time frame, I decided to make my res for the 8-10. It's just going to be average weekend crowds, not too busy or slow, but alot of the local kids will be heading out there for some weekend fun before mardi gras and spring break.
My only other guess would be, usually in the day or 2 following the superbowl, Disney hosts the MVP in a parade. Having previously worked for the mouse during such an occasion, and remembering the crowds, I had already looked that up. It turns out the Superbowl is being held in Cali this year meaning Anaheim will host, so I suspect that the crowd calendar was formed without taking into account the location of the superbowl.

I doubt we'll see much in the way of crowds, early Feb is one of my favorite times to go because of the lack of crowds, you just gotta make sure to get in there before the V-day madness descends lol.

 

[Fennella Brewer]

The national high school cheerleading competitions take place on the weekend of Feb 5-7. They have the option of booking an extra day at the end of the competition. As pp pointed out, families in states that have the week off for Mardi Gras will be enjoying some magic, as well. We are booked for the same week and I am not expecting very many walk on attractions.

 

[JohnathanS]

Thanks so much for all of the quick responses! This helps us do a little planning (although this trip is mostly to enjoy Kidani!

 

[boufa]

The TP formula's are broken, and they have stopped just short of admitting it. They recently recalculated their predictions by adjusting a bunch of variables. But they didn't recalculate their overall base crown rating numbers. Its a bit confusing. In the old days they took a years worth of numbers, spread them out and the busiest 10% were 10's and the slowest 10% were 1's and then they used those wait times as a basis. They crunch a lot of numbers, but the easiest way to look at it, is that with the increased park attendance and the shift in park visitation due to parties, fast pass+ and construction is driving up stand by wait times. Their system doesn't adjust for that. Its absolute. (a serious simplification of how i understand it) they track 5 key rides predicted wait times, then crunch those numbers to get a park crowd level. Then that take that park levels and crunch it and get a resort level.

In the end, as much as I love touring plans, their system is showing flaws. I use both, but mainly for the comparisons. I look at the week and plan my park days for the lowest number compared to the others. So if MK will be a 8 on Monday and a 3 on Tuesday, I am going on Tuesday. The actual number doesn't mean much to me.

 

[Shanti]

The TP formula's are broken, and they have stopped just short of admitting it. They recently recalculated their predictions by adjusting a bunch of variables. But they didn't recalculate their overall base crown rating numbers. Its a bit confusing. In the old days they took a years worth of numbers, spread them out and the busiest 10% were 10's and the slowest 10% were 1's and then they used those wait times as a basis. They crunch a lot of numbers, but the easiest way to look at it, is that with the increased park attendance and the shift in park visitation due to parties, fast pass+ and construction is driving up stand by wait times. Their system doesn't adjust for that. Its absolute. (a serious simplification of how i understand it) they track 5 key rides predicted wait times, then crunch those numbers to get a park crowd level. Then that take that park levels and crunch it and get a resort level.

In the end, as much as I love touring plans, their system is showing flaws. I use both, but mainly for the comparisons. I look at the week and plan my park days for the lowest number compared to the others. So if MK will be a 8 on Monday and a 3 on Tuesday, I am going on Tuesday. The actual number doesn't mean much to me.

Agreed.