DVC prices tanking?

[RanDIZ]

I know DVC prices, both direct and resale, fluctuate like the market does. But it’s definitely not going in that direction right now. Are we to expect prices to continue on a downward trend? What happens when the economy has a steeper pullback?

 

[Sandisw]

I am not sure that I would qualify it as tanking….I think them selling more 165k points and over 205k in July is pretty okay.

 

[stevehudd]

If the economy tanks and people lose their jobs timeshares will devalue harder and faster than other assets.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I don’t really think the economy is tanking anytime soon. But I’m sure prices go down when people pull back.

 

[gottalovepluto]

I am not sure that I would qualify it as tanking….I think them selling more 165k points and over 205k in July is pretty okay.

Is that on track with this time last year?

 

[Sandisw]

Is that on track with this time last year?

Id have to look but by memory of the reports that track, I think it is. And, if PVB sales go as some predict, we will see the high numbers for a few months like we did last year for VDH and the VGF sell out.

 

[DanCali]

If the economy tanks and people lose their jobs timeshares will devalue harder and faster than other assets.

That's probably true but for every seller there is a buyer. I got the best deals/offers in 2009 and 2020 when looking at Marriott and Westin timeshares, both resale and direct.

These things are fleeting though since, so far, we've bounced back from every downturn. And if we don't ever bounce back from the next one, the loss in value of our timeshares will probably be the least of our worries...

 

[AstroBlasters]

I know DVC sales, both direct and resale, fluctuate like the market does. But it’s definitely not going in that direction right now. Are we to expect prices to continue on a downward trend? What happens when the economy has a steeper pullback?

I’m not sure where you are getting your information from…. the number of contracts on the market has shrunk dramatically and direct sales are doing fine.

 

[walt34]

Apart from the numbers (that don't look bad), I'm pretty sure we will see a direct sales increase once the new Poly points go into active marketing. It's a completely different class of product than the Cabins that are currently taking up advertising space.

 

[RanDIZ]

My apologies, I used the term sales rather than price. Prices have been falling. It seems every time I look at resale websites, contract prices continue to decline.

 

[RanDIZ]

I’m not sure where you are getting your information from…. the number of contracts on the market has shrunk dramatically and direct sales are doing fine.

Sorry, thread has been edited. I don’t know why I used the word sales rather than prices. Lol. I’m talking about prices of contracts.

 

[squirrel30]

Not tanking just a correction to pre covid levels. Think alot of the contracts will be fine. Only ones that will keep dropping are the 2042 resorts and VRB contracts rest should keep or gain in value. Talking resale contracts.

 

[got4boys]

Resale contracts pricing was trending downward this past year due to cost of goods being higher to consumers and people are cutting back. Also, most people with disposal income this year went overseas due the dollar being so strong. Due to the lower amount of resale contracts out there right now, the pricing of resales is starting to tick up.

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I loosely tracked resale prices for years expecting there to be a corolation with economic indicators. Nothing ever seemed to work like I thought it should. The quantitative easing policy, federal reserve rate hike timing, pandemic lockdowns, COVID relief money, and other factors have made these things even harder to predict.

I expect, no matter who is elected, there will be a disruption in the markets and therefore the general population will be concerned about the economy, although they are two different things.

How this plays out for DVC prices, direct
and resale, can't be predicted with any accuracy. It's just like timing the stock market. I should have purchased what contract I wanted when I wanted it instead of thinking I was smarter than everyone and would buy the dip. My colleague saw a subsidized VB contract years ago and snapped it up. He has made his money back and then some with his amazing trips. I over thought over analyzed, and still bought a resale contract that doesn't quite fit.

Now I am perseverating over a Poly purchase. Still haven't learned my lesson!

 

[MartyParty]

I’ve noticed resale prices in decline or stagnate for awhile. For this point in time kinda thought it was a post Covid thing with families wanting to travel to other destinations besides Disney.

Longer term resale pricing impact might be due to additional points coming online. VGF, Cabins, Poly, VDH, etc. I gotta think out some point supply could out pace demand thus lowering or continually depressing the resale price. Having restrictions on newer resorts might help deter this but not 100% sure. There is a supply and demand component DVD must manage or the direct and resale pricing falls.

 

[Sandisw]

I see now you were referring to prices! I definitely think we are seeing prices that have gone down in the past few years and I expect them to stay there, or go lower…but not by much because I think most are hovering at floor.

I won’t be surprised to see PVB settle back into the $140s range after initial sales of direct.

 

[AstroBlasters]

In theory the prices are supposed to go down every year because there are less years of points to use, rent, or resell.

The fact that they go up is really because of their relation to cash hotel prices, IMO.

COVID game everyone travel YOLO, but that wasn’t sustainable forever.

Disney has also dramatically increased the costs of going to the parks (part inflation, part trying to generate cash to offset a run of movies not doing well in theaters). Airfare hasn’t gotten cheaper either.

It seems like sentiment has gotten significantly better for the company ever since the FL governor got out of the race and Iger/Demaro have helped right the ship.

 

[Genie+]

Every year 2% of a 50 year contract gets used up, on the other side inflation is compounding at a rate of 2% or more.

From dvcresalemarket.com in 2016:



Dues, point charts, supply/demand, and the economy all impact resale pricing. Some of these resale resorts have basically stayed the same dollar amount from a decade ago but paying $75pp in 2014 is like paying $100pp in today’s dollars.

 

[bakerworld]

I noticed that 2 years ago we could sell all our contracts for a profit compared to our purchase year price. If I incorporate the incentives in effect in '08, which greatly impacted the per point price, we could still make a profit on BLT and we'd break even on AK. BC we'd lose our shorts because we bought them in '12 an '18. We'd be especially short panted on '18. We've bought all our contract direct as we're impatient - LOL.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I’ll tell you what would make me clear out my DVC points…. flight prices…. if fares stay this high then I’ll just stick to things that are driving distance…