DVC Peaking or Just Getting Started

[nickspace]

Do you think that DVC growth has peaked and will now slow down or has the growth just begun? Where do you think DVC will be one decade or two from now?

 

[Chuck S]

I think at WDW it may have reached a temporary plateau until the economy improves substantially. Surely there are designs at the ready for continued growth when it is feasible.

 

[mecllap]

Since they're following the world economy with major efforts in Asia, including a sales center in Japan, I expect it has not peaked at all -- just is morphing away from WDW resorts being the emphasis.

 

[McCrae]

Expansion into Japan and Asia will be the next steps IMO.

 

[Brian Noble]

The Parks & Resorts segment of the company has become positively addicted to the revenue generated by DVC sales. I don't expect it to stop (or even slow down) anytime soon.

The challenge might well be how well they can translate their success with WDW resorts to other areas. So far, they have all been somewhere between dismal and merely underperforming from a sales standpoint. Perhaps Aulani will be different, because if they can't make Hawaii work, then they can't do it anywhere.

 

[blondietink]

I think it is still growing and am wondering if they will eventually build a DVC at Tokyo Disney/Disneysea. If they do plan on more DVC at WDW, then I think they will really need to focus on location, as in monorail or Epcot resorts. If they could build a DVC resort on the monorail line between MK and Epcot, I think that would be just about perfect! Lastly, they need to really theme it well, with an idea/concept that is unlike any of the other DVC resorts currently built. Just MHO.

 

[bgraham34]

I think at WDW it may have reached a temporary plateau until the economy improves substantially. Surely there are designs at the ready for continued growth when it is feasible.

I agree. I do think they will expand internationally more the economies might be a little but better than here. Which will give me some concerns trying to book rooms at WDW.

 

[stopher1]

I agree with Brian Noble, and think the company has definitely grown to like that contribution DVC sales have made to the overall bottom line way too much, and simply won't stop the growth of the network. Sure the overall economy is taking a toll now, but I don't think even that will stop them from expanding. I know several on these are boards are quite vocal about no more expansion, but I just don't see that happening. They turned the spigot on pretty high, and it's just going to be too hard to turn it off now. The only thing I tend to question is how high prices will go before sales really get impacted negatively.

Since Vero and Hilton Head initially came on board, personally I think that perhaps they might have learned a few things regarding what to provide for the overall guest experience / Disneyfied expectations to any resort with Disney in the name, and Aulani will definitely help them finesse even further for additional non-Disney related destinations (i.e. WDW and DL) to further expand the network. Just in reading through Jim Lewis' little article in the latest Files issue last night, one comment really struck me about this very topic. It relates to their research, and what the membership appears to want. The one about the members being most happy staying in DVC properties vs. trading out, etc. That to me said, that even if still in the somewhat distant future, we'll probably see more attempts at off-site DVC resorts in the vein of what they're doing at Aulani, vs. what they did at Vero or Hilton Head. That's just my two cents.

 

[Brian Noble]

for additional non-Disney related destinations (i.e. WDW and DL)

I think it is worth noting that the general consensus is that VGC is likely to be viewed as a disappointment, in terms of how long it took to close out sales of a *very* small resort. That's not that surprising. The "home court advantage" at Disneyland just isn't what it is at WDW. There are many great non-Disney hotel properties (and another timeshare or two) within walking distance of the esplanade.

 

[Sammie]

I think Hawaii will be the determining factor, goes well, expansion will continue, does not, I think it will slack off for a while.

 

[toniosmom]

I think Hawaii will be the determing factor, goes well, expansion will continue, does not, I think it will slack off for a while.

I agree with your assessment about Hawaii. I truly believe that Aulani sales are going to be a major factor in any future properties.

 

[Sammie]

I agree with your assessment about Hawaii. I truly believe that Aulani sales are going to be a major factor in any future properties.

For one thing it will be the first time that Disney has placed a DVC that is not within driving distance to the parks.

Many DVCers live on the East coast and use HHI as a stopping point coming and going to Disney. Also the same with Vero Beach, many now use VB as a beach getaway attached to a park stay.

Plus both HHI and Vero are very small properties compared to Aulani. It will be interesting to see how this goes.

Huge success; Jim Lewis will be the golden child of Disney, not a huge success he might possibly be on his way out.

Small additions to GF and Polynesian would be a sure thing but expansion to nonDisney park locations, I am not so sure. Right now there are just so many bargains being offered for nonpark vacation locations, DVC is definitely not the best bargain.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think that's about right. Aulani is a big big bet. If it succeeds, within the year we'll hear the announcement for the National Harbor plot. If it fails, well, expect that land to be sold very quietly.

 

[disney1474]

I wish they would build a resort in the carribean..that would be great

 

[nickspace]

Perhaps I am greedy but I want DVC growth to be based in the USA. The cost to travel abroad would not be feasible for many members. I would personally like to see more placed like HHI and I feel there is much growth potential in this area. But i do admit that the global potential is huge.

 

[stopher1]

Perhaps I am greedy but I want DVC growth to be based in the USA. The cost to travel abroad would not be feasible for many members. I would personally like to see more placed like HHI and I feel there is much growth potential in this area. But i do admit that the global potential is huge.

Personally I agree with you. I think there are a lot of great destinations that could have a great resort like Aulani, part DVC, part hotel - regardless of what other timeshare companies or resorts are around. However, people have to have the interest to buy there and go again and again. I would love it if the network were expanded further with more stand-alone resorts. We've enjoyed many nice destinations with my FIL using his multiple non-Disney timeshares through the years. I don't really want to trade out my DVC points for something non-Disney, we have options for that kind of travel, so I'd like more options within the Disney network. But that's just me and MHO. Others will disagree and that's okay. A lot is riding on Aulani. I get that.

For many within the primary DVC market to date, (or east of the Mississippi), flying to CA annually or bi-annually, or even tri-annually was a major point of contention for why they wouldn't purchase VGC. However once they go out there and see just how incredible Disneyland actually is... and how absolutely beautiful VGC and the Grand Californian are... almost everyone comes back flabergasted, at least those that I've personally spoken or interacted with her on the DIS and elsewhere. Many wish they had points there. Still others others have acted upon that wish and added VGC points to their own point portfolios, and still more have debated the choice intensely. I have no figures to quantify this next statement, but from what I've read here on the DIS and elsewhere, it appears a vast majority of DVC's primary sales market have never actually even been to the place that started it all, which really is a shame. Sure WDW closer, but DL is the mecca for Disney fans. And the Grand Californian is, by many people's admissions, as well as my own personal opinion, the best DVC property to date, both in design and execution. However the model photos and concept art that I've seen for Aulani makes me think that that resort will soon move up to the top spot. We purchased VGC specifically since we are native Californians and still have family and other ties out there. We get out there annually as it is, so for us it was a no brainer. Others not so much.

The same argument (flying every 1, 2 or 3 years) has been coming up now with Aulani in active sales. However at least on these boards, I'm certainly seeing more and more people who are indicating they've purchased Aulani, that aren't all from the west coast. I've even seen numerous folks on here identified as eastern US residents. Likewise Aulani's sales are definitely being geared to the Japanese in a huge way as well. DVC certainly isn't only relying on the primary market they've depended up for the past 19 years any more to drive the sales for that resort. I would really like to purchase points at Aulani, as I know we'd enjoy getting back to Hawaii multiple times. Let me just admit that each new publication, mailer, etc, makes me want to purchase more and more. But, so did the very first marketing pieces put out way back in 1991 - and all of the ones I received thereafter. I wasn't able to buy in then, being a college student at the time. Then we looked at in person while on our honeymoon and wanted to, but couldn't then either. I took a long time before we were in a place to be able to do so. But, like VGC, there are ulterior motives as well.

My brother lives in Hawaii, on Oahu, and it would be a great place to stay and visit, without intruding on his space/providing us with the privacy, etc. and serving as a nice home base while there for another great vacation destination every couple of years. But so far my DW isn't quite in agreement because of the airfare expense. If it weren't for that, we'd buy in in a heartbeat. So with that in mind, I'd sure love some other options within the system that might be more easily obtained, transportation-wise. Personally, depending on the destination, I wouldn't mind having a small to medium sized set of points at places like Lake Tahoe, Aspen or Vail, Yosemite, Yellowstone, the Pacific Northwest, or even Long Island, Vermont or Maine. We absolutely LOVE going to WDW and DL... but having options of Disney resorts in other locations would be just great in MHO. And each of the destinations mentioned are places we've been to time and time again, so I know we'd return in the future, they aren't just places pulled out of a hat, even if just as a destination possibility such as HHI or VB are today for us, options to use our points at without the trade out fee or the "unbalanced" trade that many destinations outside of DVC come with. Our entire family was excited about the possibility of National Harbor... I know a lot of people aren't, but we were. A small 40-60 point purchase wouldn't amount to much without lots of other people doing the same or larger, but it would be nice to have the opportunity to consider it. The same holds true for any other location Disney might propose. I'm still wishing they had continued with their plans all those years ago for the Newport Beach, CA location they once were working on...

I think it is worth noting that the general consensus is that VGC is likely to be viewed as a disappointment, in terms of how long it took to close out sales of a *very* small resort. That's not that surprising. The "home court advantage" at Disneyland just isn't what it is at WDW. There are many great non-Disney hotel properties (and another timeshare or two) within walking distance of the esplanade.

Sure it might be a "disappointment" as you say, and sure as a vacation destination resort, WDW has a much larger home court advantage than DL does or ever will have - that's going to happen when you have about 45 times the acreage, and so many more amenities, resorts, parks, etc. But DL can and does stand on its' own quite well. It always has. And I will agree that it is surrounded within walking distance by a great many motels, hotels and resorts. Having lived and worked there, I know that quite well. And I'll point out that many travelers to So. Cal are looking for the bargain accomodations (hence the popularity of the HoJo) because they are going to see and do so much more than just DL that So. Cal offers. Those miles of beautiful beaches, Hollywood, Knott's Berry Farm, the original Universal Studios with the actual working Studio Tour, San Diego, and so much more. And since visitors aren't trapped on property at DL like they are at WDW, thanks to the ingenious introduction of DME a few years back, and throwing the DDP at people...WDW maintains an extremely captive audience that DL will never replicate. Until they build a water park or a third gate, DL just won't capture the typical tourist for more than 3-4 days max. And even if they do eventually build that third gate or a water park, or even a second fabulous DVC property, people still won't view it as a week-long destination. WDW will always win in that sense.

Regarding VGC's sales, sure we all thought it would sell out faster than it did, but the economy certainly slowed it down. I certainly bought into that thinking right away, and had my guide sending me paperwork for it the first possible time I could once the Founding Member sales opened up to the general public because I "bought in" to the mentality that it would be sold out in 6-12 months and did't want to miss out. But even still, being down to just one UY left after a year and half of sales doesn't seem that bad to me, when you consider the economy and the general downsizing, or putting off major luxury purchases as so many have had to do. But I'm not an expert on timeshare sales or sales durations either. I certainly don't or haven't tracked how long any resort has taken to sell out. How long did the next smallest resort, VWL take to sell out? How many resorts were in active sales at the time VWL was being pushed? How many times in the past has DVC had 4 active resorts for sale at the same time? Now 5 with Aulani added to the mix. So many options for potential customers to choose from. With price increases once, or wait, was it twice, while the resort was in active sales? And of course, for all the hype of proximity and being the premiere resort, why hasn't BLT sold out yet? I realize it's a lot larger than VGC, but isn't that the primary resort being pushed at this time? I know I had to say no to my guide about 4 times before she realized we truly weren't interested in BLT and really wanted VGC. And even when we added on for more points at VGC, she still asked me first if I wanted BLT and I had to tell her no a 5th time.

 

[nunzia]

I think it is worth noting that the general consensus is that VGC is likely to be viewed as a disappointment, in terms of how long it took to close out sales of a *very* small resort. That's not that surprising. The "home court advantage" at Disneyland just isn't what it is at WDW. There are many great non-Disney hotel properties (and another timeshare or two) within walking distance of the esplanade.

I agree..for such a small property it took seemingly forever to sell out. Now, the economy certainly didn't help and the attraction of so many close and nice properties would have VGC appealing to a much smaller demographic I would think.
VGC is really a high end property in terms of points used (pretty equal to best view at BLT), plus since it's the only resort there, you aren't going to get people just buying there and hoping to stay somewhere else (say, Saratoga).
I still think, in time, VGC will be seen a real crown jewel for it's beauty and unbeatable location.

 

[Brian Noble]

Sure it might be a "disappointment" as you say, and sure as a vacation destination resort, WDW has a much larger home court advantage than DL does or ever will have - that's going to happen when you have about 45 times the acreage, and so many more amenities, resorts, parks, etc. But DL can and does stand on its' own quite well.

But the question isn't "Is Disneyland an awesome place to spend a week." The answer that question is: "Of course!". The question is: "Is Disneyland a place where DVD can print money by selling DVC points." And, the answer appears to have been: "Not really." The same question can be asked about HHI and VB, and the same answer applies.

That question also applies to Aulani. It will be interesting to see what the answer is.

 

[minpin3]

I wish they would build a resort in the carribean..that would be great

That would be amazing! Or maybe some small villas on Castaway Cay???

 

[stopher1]

But the question isn't "Is Disneyland an awesome place to spend a week." The answer that question is: "Of course!". The question is: "Is Disneyland a place where DVD can print money by selling DVC points." And, the answer appears to have been: "Not really." The same question can be asked about HHI and VB, and the same answer applies.

That question also applies to Aulani. It will be interesting to see what the answer is.

You're right, it will be interesting to see how Aulani plays out.

Regarding VGC, I would agree if sales were so dismal that they just simply couldn't get anyone to buy in - or - if they still had 50% or more of the total point inventory left to sell at the 18 month mark, but they don't, it's what 90 or 95%, maybe higher. Sure the timing wasn't what everyone anticipated it to be, but many people didn't expect this recession to last as long as it has either, while others believe it's going to get worse and stick around for a long time yet to come. I remember lots of exagerated reports that it would be sold out prior to the end of the Founding Member sales period, or very shortly thereafter. The going consensus at that time was probably between 6 months to a year. And here we are just about 6 months beyond that initial consensus and they have nearly sold out at VGC after an additional 6 month period. No doubt it will be sold out before we hit the 2 year mark. So they have recouped the investment and made money on the deal. All while selling 3-4 other resorts at the same time. Still a pretty good deal for them. Even if it didn't go quite as gangbusters due to the lackluster economy. How long did it take them to sell out VB and HHI? I'm guessing by those resorts repeatedly being mentioned here and elsewhere that their sales were lackluster that it was quite a bit more than 2 years. Granted they have more points in total, but how long did they take to sell out? I'm just wondering what their sales period was like to see some sort of correlation. I think the real answer to the question you posed above about DVD printing money at Disneyland is not "not really", but rather, "yes, just not as fast as initially expected". But then that holds true for so many different product sales, doesn't it? Everyone thinks their product will be an immediate hit and sale like gangbusters, but then reality hits and things tend to take a little longer than expected, most times.

Personally I think the bigger disappointment than VGC is SSR and the THV addition. I really like that resort, and am thrilled that they added the THVs (having stayed in one already and can't wait to get back), but that sales effort will continue to languish for years to come. Possibly even longer than Aulani.