DVC News-Dec 25 Sales

This thread is about direct points, not sure why you're bringing up resale.


It was just an example of how a resort with a favorable points chart (like Boardwalk) can command a higher price than it otherwise might (given the 2042 expiration in that instance).

So if the argument was that more Poly points were sold because Poly's points chart is less user friendly, I'd actually argue that (everything else equal) a more user friendly points chart at Riviera should lead to higher developer Riviera prices than at Poly. But of course "everything else equal" doesn't hold since restrictions are different, dues are different, location is different etc.
 
I kind of feel like I’m being gaslit a bit here by the “restrictions don’t matter” crew. IMO, some of it is Stockholm Syndrome.

Restrictions don’t matter to most uneducated direct buyers….. but they sure as heck matter.

As one who says they don’t matter, why do they have to matter the same to all?

And there is no need to be critical as we all get to decide how to vote it without being said we have an issue.

Resale value? Risky to buy using that as a factor, no matter the resort.

Availability? We aren’t guaranteed any specific room or date….restrictions don’t change that…

Sales? Obviously the impact wasn’t enough for DVD to reverse so they don’t think they have a meaningful impact.

What we do know is that over the life of sales, RIv is around 70k and PVB tower is around $79k…if I did my math correct.

This notion that RIVs sales are where they are simply because of restrictions and nothing else is not accurate.

No way RIV would be outselling PVB tower if they didn’t have them.

So, where does that leave us? Owners deciding what matters.
 

And, TBH, as an owner of a lot of direct RIV points, I sort of wish I saw evidence that resale restrictions hurt direct sales. If there were clear and convincing evidence that they did, then maybe there would be hope that they'll eventually roll them back, and my points would suddenly be worth a lot more if I ever decided to sell them. I don't think that is going to happen.
 
And, TBH, as an owner of a lot of direct RIV points, I sort of wish I saw evidence that resale restrictions hurt direct sales. If there were clear and convincing evidence that they did, then maybe there would be hope that they'll eventually roll them back, and my points would suddenly be worth a lot more if I ever decided to sell them. I don't think that is going to happen.

To add to this, DVD holds all the cards when it comes to even resale.

They have taken back a contract as high as $98/pt, while they still have points to sell.

Obviously, owners who buy resale RIV have a different product…but if they are buying it, they know it.
 
I usually don’t engage in these discussions because they lead nowhere. My take on restrictions is that they affect direct sales, but not in the way most people here think.

I think we all agree that the idea behind restrictions is to incentivize potential buyers to buy direct. But here is where I deviate from what most people think. Restrictions are not aimed at all buyers, just resale buyers. A potential buyer will do their research and find out about restrictions, and that will make them think about whether resale is the way to go. Some won’t care too much; some will definitely have FOMO and go buy direct. Now that buyer who knows about restrictions reaches out to a guide, and they have two options (three if they like cabins): Riviera and Polynesian.

What do you guys think that person is going to get? A person who knows more about DVC than the average purchaser. The unrestricted resort.

So in my opinion, the restrictions are not hurting Riviera direct sales in a significant way (resale prices are definitely impacted). The restrictions are increasing total direct sales. And for now, the unrestricted resort is the one benefiting the most from that.

There’s no way for us to know if this is true or not. We have no way of knowing how much they’d be selling without the restrictions. What we know is that there are no indications they are going to get rid of them. That means they’re either extremely stubborn, or they have the data to feel they’re working.
 
As one who says they don’t matter, why do they have to matter the same to all?

And there is no need to be critical as we all get to decide how to vote it without being said we have an issue.

Resale value? Risky to buy using that as a factor, no matter the resort.

Availability? We aren’t guaranteed any specific room or date….restrictions don’t change that…

Sales? Obviously the impact wasn’t enough for DVD to reverse so they don’t think they have a meaningful impact.

What we do know is that over the life of sales, RIv is around 70k and PVB tower is around $79k…if I did my math correct.

This notion that RIVs sales are where they are simply because of restrictions and nothing else is not accurate.

No way RIV would be outselling PVB tower if they didn’t have them.

So, where does that leave us? Owners deciding what matters.
Good points but I think you were missing the one that had always been true prior to the restrictions and that is flexibility.

If someone purchases a restricted resort and there dates are no longer available they no longer have the ability to play the DVC Slots to see if something else at another resort will open up during that time period.

Those grandfathered in or purchasing direct today still are afforded that flexibility.
 
Good points but I think you were missing the one that had always been true prior to the restrictions and that is flexibility.

If someone purchases a restricted resort and there dates are no longer available they no longer have the ability to play the DVC Slots to see if something else at another resort will open up during that time period.

Those grandfathered in or purchasing direct today still are afforded that flexibility.

That is very true but that only applies to resale RIv and not direct.

Restrictions make a difference in the product. But that is not the same of saying that restrictions matter in such way that it is impacting direct sales dramatically.

You can’t look only at a month either…you have to look at them all individually and collectively.

To be fair, though, every owner faces this if they don’t book far enough out. The dates they want may not be available at any resort in the room size they want. We all need to be flexible if we wait.

But, everyone buying resale RIV knows they don’t have the flexibility vs buying another resort resale and for them to have chosen it, it means it doesn’t matter in the same way as it might someone else.

But, this was in response to direct sales and so far, RIV has sold well enough for DVD to not have changed the game.

Well enough IMO that they added it to VDH, and CFW, and I think we will see it is LSL too.

ETA: What it seems is that when RIV outsold VGF For 4 to 5 months, it was dismissed. When it sold strongly once opening but before the pandemic,..over 100k a few of the months…it was dismissed…but if it lags behind others then it’s the restrictions that did it.

It’s the same product now as it was then, so when you evaluate all of that, restrictions are not enough for many buyers to not purchase.

Look at VGF…they needed a fire sale to get it sold out…it wasn’t selling fantastic after the first few months…and there were no restrictions.

But, I’ll be surprised if they fire sale RIv if it doesn’t get connected to restrictions being the reasons they had to.

In the end, restrictions change the product and one has to weigh how much it matters to them…
 
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Just so you know, the deeds recorded by the county in December might not give you the most up-to-date picture of sales that month. They tend to lag behind the actual sales.

Looking at the deeds recorded by Orange County, Florida (WDW only), I noticed 16 deeds for 25 points. Out of these, only 3 were executed on dates in December.

For WDW in December (1039 deeds recorded by county), here’s what I see:
1 deed with an August execution date.
9 deeds with a September execution date.
117 deeds with an October execution date.
538 deeds with a November execution date.
374 deeds with a December execution date.
 
Just so you know, the deeds recorded by the county in December might not give you the most up-to-date picture of sales that month. They tend to lag behind the actual sales.

Looking at the deeds recorded by Orange County, Florida (WDW only), I noticed 16 deeds for 25 points. Out of these, only 3 were executed on dates in December.

For WDW in December (1039 deeds recorded by county), here’s what I see:
1 deed with an August execution date.
9 deeds with a September execution date.
117 deeds with an October execution date.
538 deeds with a November execution date.
374 deeds with a December execution date.

When you gather the data, do you track how many actual owners are involved?
 
Okay, this is fun.

1) MK or EPCOT/HS?
EP/HS

2) Skyliner vs Monorail/Boats: Love it or Hate it?
Love the Skyliner. I also really enjoy the WL<->MK boats, but find the Crescent Lake boats more frustrating with all the stops. The monorail is a better idea than it is in practice for me.

3) RIV styling: “European flair” or “Bland box with some iron rails?”
Two answers: Inside the walls and looking out, it has a definite flair (though I am not sure I would call it European.) Outside the walls and looking in, much less so. But if I am staying there, guess where I spend most of my time? Even hanging around the pool, I"m not staring at the building per se.

4) Poly: Do you like “tiki” or is it “tacky”?
Both. I like tiki because it is tacky. But I confess I like e.g. authentic Hawaii more.

5) PolyT: “Aulani’s 3rd tower?” or “Ugly building with bland beige rooms?”
I haven't seen the rooms in person, but they look great in photos. I happen to like the exterior more than e.g. Riviera. I wasn't able to put it in words until you laid it out this way, but that's in part because it is less tiki and more Aulani.

6) Resale restrictions: Do you care about residual value? Will it impact future booking availability? Have you convinced yourself they don’t matter?
I do not care enough about residual value to change my buying decision. I mean, it's nice if there is value if and when it comes to sell, but I don't want that to be the tail that wags the dog. I was most concerned about buying what I wanted, and that was: in the EP/HS area-ish, but with an expiration later than 2042. Those constraints narrow down the choices very very quickly.

I suspect the availability concerns will not materialize the way some folks think, but (a) I am an 11-month booker, and (b) I also bought a Resort View Studio FW as a hedge, just in case. In the meantime, I've added to my portfolio to the point where I am now a 1BR person, and I definitely do not think those will be a Hunger Games booking category.

Do they matter? I think it depends on what "matters" means. It is obvious that the points are worth less if you are selling them than they'd be worth if they were unrestricted. So far, the penalty is lower than I would have expected. December 2025 resale values at RIV averaged between $118-$121 (source one, source two). Absent restrictions, I suspect they would come in somewhere between CCV and PVB, whch are $139-$141 and $162-$165. Split the difference and say a hypothetical unrestricted RIV would be worth $151-153. So, a hypotetical loss of about $32/pp, or about 20%.

But, that loss is hypothetical. There is no resort with RIV's specific characteristics that is unrestricted, and so it's not really a loss. I could have bought a resort I wanted less, and that resort probably would have been worth more when I sold it. But I was not buying a resort to sell, I was buying a resort to use, and Riviera was the one I wanted most. So, I'd've been giving up some (non-monetary) value in exchange for better (monetary) resale values. That was not appealing.

And for those of us who really like RIV, resale restrictions are fantastic! That's because it makes it cheaper to buy points there. My DVC portfolio is just about 50/50 developer/resale RIV. My expected travel pattern is: One big trip a year, alternating between RIV and "somewhere else." RIV's resale restrictions saved me a nice chunk of change putting that portfolio together.

I make this point often when people talk about how terrible other timeshares are because they have negligible residual value. That's only a bad thing if you buy from the developer, which I did not. If you "buy" on the secondary market, they can be an incredible value.

7) Neighborhood: Grand Flo, Contemporary, Wilderness Lodge OR Caribbean Beach, Pop Century, Art of Animation, Beach/Yacht Club, Boardwalk?
The best way to answer this is to talk about how I have chosen where I live. Most recently, I was choosing between Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti. I had lived in Ann Arbor for most of my close to 30 years here. But, just before buying, I was renting in Ypsi for a couple of years during the separation and while the divorce was in process. I fell in love with it, and when the time came to buy, I didn't even look in Ann Arbor. A redditor puts it this way:

Ann Arbor is a gentrified college town with a former life as a hippie town that’s been virtually erased due to the cost of living. Ypsilanti is the blue collar punk rock working class neighbor who’s dealing with inflated rent due to Ann Arbor’s lack of housing for students at UofM.

For me, this is not a hard decision. At all. However, I also recognize that I am very unusual. Most of my colleagues at work are barely aware that Ypsilanti exists, because Ann Arbor is its own bubble. But I get to live in a house built in 1932, with a brick exterior, hardwood floors, plaster walls, tons of character. I am less than a mile from "downtown" such as it is, but that includes a library, a decent BBQ place, a couple of cafes, a quality bakery, and a couple of higher end places cheek-by-jowl next to a great burger counter and a Guatemalan diner. Walk another 10 minutes to another cluster of resturants, near the hosue where Rosie the Riveter lived. Really.

I suspect that, if you put all this together---particularly this last bit---I am very much not representative of the average DVC buyer. That's great news, because it further reduces the competition for points I might want to buy and use for a few decades.
 
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