DVC News-Dec 25 Sales

[eticketplease]

I don't think that's it; there were also more deeds sold at PVB (the article lists the totals).

I haven’t read the article yet but does it account for people splitting up contracts? This could account for more poly deeds as well with people thinking long term assuming that PVB will continue to return a decent return if the need arises.

 

[DanCali]

One potential reason I had not thought about before, but would be another simple reason to explain the difference in PVB and RIV sales numbers - you just need more points at PVB for most room categories. By my math, if you set aside the Penthouse 2 BRs, Bungalows, and GVs, equivalent accommodations at PVB can range from 15% more points at PVB to up to 45% more points at PVB for a full week. So, last month PVB sold about 34% more points than RIV - how much of that is simply because, your average PVB buyer, when sitting with their guide and determining how many points they wanted, looked at the points chart and said, well, I want enough for 1 week per year in this room - oh, and maybe I want to make sure I have enough for preferred or theme park view every other year if I bank or borrow a few of my points. If you're sitting with a guide and looking at the RIV points chart, you simply don't need as many points.

But wouldn't that reason be an argument that RIV is more desirable on that front specifically, and therefore merits a price premium?

After all, you read many times that people are willing to pay relatively high resale prices for some 2042 resorts (eg BWV) because the points charts are user friendly and rooms are cheap to book. If it costs less to book once you own it, you'd think that (everything else being equal) the upfront price would be higher in equilibrium.

 

[byurick]

This thread is about direct points, not sure why you're bringing up resale.

 

[eticketplease]

But wouldn't that reason be an argument that RIV is more desirable on that front specifically, and therefore merits a price premium?

After all, you read many times that people are willing to pay relatively high resale prices for some 2042 resorts (eg BWV) because the points charts are user friendly and rooms are cheap to book. If it costs less to book once you own it, you'd think that (everything else being equal) the upfront price would be higher in equilibrium.

@airjay75 was pointing out that on average you need 15% less points to book a room at RIV compared to PVB which could skew the numbers to PVB favor as to book that same room you would theoretically need more points.

They are discussing direct as @byurick pointed out so they are all priced at the same PPP.

Yes it's possible some may have paid less with incentives but we can't get that information from the article.
The farthest breakdown I can see is there were 497 deeds totalling 82,321 for PVB and of those there were 7 25 pointers, 1 600, 1 510 and 1 500 point contract so for all we know the rest could be contracts that don't qualify for incentives.

The same is true with RIV as there were 351 deeds totalling 61,237 points and there were 3 500 point deeds out of that 351. So the remaining 348 could have all had incentives or not we just don't know.


What we do know is PVB sold 17% more deeds for 15% more points then RIV did.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

Just wanted to add/point out that Island Tower is not a new resort. It’s a new building at a well established resort. I think it’s telling that it is outselling Riviera. If that continues it’s just more evidence that people are reluctant to pay a premium for a restricted contract. It’s not conclusive but it tilts the equation that way.

 

[byurick]

I challenge all of you the next time you're on property somewhere strike up a conversation with a fellow dvc member you see while waiting in the lobby or by the pool. See if they even know what a restricted contract is or if the Poly tower is the same association as the main resort. I bet you'll be surprised how folks don't know a thing about the stuff we talk about on this forum.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Just wanted to add/point out that Island Tower is not a new resort. It’s a new building at a well established resort. I think it’s telling that it is outselling Riviera. If that continues it’s just more evidence that people are reluctant to pay a premium for a restricted contract. It’s not conclusive but it tilts the equation that way.

So your theory is that, absent restrictions on resale contracts, Riviera would outsell PIT?

 

[juliebee]

my opinion is that people go for Poly over Riviera due to being more familiar with the Polynesian. Like others mentioned, a lot of new people don't know much about resale restrictions so I don't know that is a factor for sales. New buyers are more likely to have visited or stayed at the Polynesian compared to the Riviera, so that makes the Poly is the "safer" choice.

 

[airjay75]

But wouldn't that reason be an argument that RIV is more desirable on that front specifically, and therefore merits a price premium?

After all, you read many times that people are willing to pay relatively high resale prices for some 2042 resorts (eg BWV) because the points charts are user friendly and rooms are cheap to book. If it costs less to book once you own it, you'd think that (everything else being equal) the upfront price would be higher in equilibrium.

Sure, maybe. But, I'll give a different reason that the incentives might be higher on RIV than PVB. The dues at RIV are about 14% higher per point than PVB. And the extra incentive DVD gives on RIV points maxes out right now at $32/point (on 500 points or more for existing members), which is still less than a 14% incentive. I could easily see a guide, when asked why RIV incentives are better saying, well, the dues are cheaper at PVB, so we don't offer as much of an upfront discount - you'll get that discount over time.

Now, I have no idea if that's how they decide to price incentives or if they even take that into account. But, seems to me that is just as plausible as anything else. I could see them increasing incentives on RIV because they want to move those points faster than they would without them in time for LSL. And, I think the Poly is just a more iconic resort in the first place which naturally increases interest in it and so they don't have to offer as much of a discount.

There are just a lot of things other than the resale restrictions to explain the differences in sales and incentives on these two resorts. Doesn't mean they're true or that the resale restrictions don't also play a role either.

 

[airjay75]

Just wanted to add/point out that Island Tower is not a new resort. It’s a new building at a well established resort. I think it’s telling that it is outselling Riviera. If that continues it’s just more evidence that people are reluctant to pay a premium for a restricted contract. It’s not conclusive but it tilts the equation that way.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/first-riviera-rofr.3971706/page-12#post-66328828

For you or anyone else who might not be familiar with the history of RIV sales. There was a time when RIV was much newer and shinier, and it outsold VGF active sales where VGF was only priced $15/point more than RIV.

Time passes. RIV isn't so new. PIT opens. And, unlike BPK, PIT is an entirely new building that adds 1 and 2 BR accommodations to a resort that didn't previously have it.

Sure, it wasn't so clear back then what RIV resale prices would look like, so I suppose you can argue those direct buyers back then were just whistling past the graveyard. Personally, I don't think your average direct DVC purchaser cares, if they even know much about resale restrictions and the resale market at all.

 

[byurick]

Back to the original article, it still baffles me that people are paying full price for VB/HHI/etc which I think lends credibility to my argument about regular people just not getting how this whole thing works.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

Back to the original article, it still baffles me that people are paying full price for VB/HHI/etc which I think lends credibility to my argument about regular people just not getting how this whole thing works.

This is fair. And I didn’t even consider the dues difference between RIV and PIT.
Personally a lot of flaws at the Polynesian are overlooked for sentimental value but that is a factor that Riviera doesn’t have, and I love Riviera.

 

[Sandisw]

This is fair. And I didn’t even consider the dues difference between RIV and PIT.
Personally a lot of flaws at the Polynesian are overlooked for sentimental value but that is a factor that Riviera doesn’t have, and I love Riviera.

Where choosing PVB over RIV because of restrictions might play a bigger role with current owners vs new buyers.

I don’t anyone believes that sales haven’t been impacted in someway…but all resorts have variables and when it comes to PVB?

I think it wins regardless against RIV because it’s PVB so I agree with you.

But, the dues and number of points needed could also be it and not something I had thought about either.

 

[maui22]

Another factor to consider, Polynesian is the original WDW resort. It had guests before Contemporary in 1972.

Talked with a gentleman from NJ tonight who had a similar story that I have. Both our fathers brought the family to Disney decades ago and we stayed at the Polynesian Resort.

Memories tug at our hearts and timeshares are emotional purchases.

Disney clearly has a place in everyone of our hearts or we wouldn’t be going to WDW/DL so frequently to make a Disney timeshare so popular.

With Riviera it’s only been around 7 years so it doesn’t have generations of memories at the resort.

 

[AstroBlasters]

1) MK or EPCOT/HS?
2) Skyliner vs Monorail/Boats: Love it or Hate it?
3) RIV styling: “European flair” or “Bland box with some iron rails?”
4) Poly: Do you like “tiki” or is it “tacky”?
5) PolyT: “Aulani’s 3rd tower?” or “Ugly building with bland beige rooms?”
6) Resale restrictions: Do you care about residual value? Will it impact future booking availability? Have you convinced yourself they don’t matter?
7) Neighborhood: Grand Flo, Contemporary, Wilderness Lodge OR Caribbean Beach, Pop Century, Art of Animation, Beach/Yacht Club, Boardwalk?

 

[muppets3d]

It's not like Riviera isn't selling, it's been fairly consistently selling since it launched.

Resale restrictions aren't going anywhere.

It's a closed debate as far as I'm concerned. Timeshares at Myrtle Beach that have to be either surrendered or given away sell every day.

If you're that worried about resale value it may be best to just get a Marriott Bonvoy card or sign up for an AirBNB account.

Maybe 20 years ago there was a fast payoff with buying DVC direct vs. booking hotel rooms with Disney, but not today - the payoff for direct points today is a decade or more in the future as a best-case scenario.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I kind of feel like I’m being gaslit a bit here by the “restrictions don’t matter” crew. IMO, some of it is Stockholm Syndrome.

Restrictions don’t matter to most uneducated direct buyers….. but they sure as heck matter.

 

[airjay75]

I kind of feel like I’m being gaslit a bit here by the “restrictions don’t matter” crew. IMO, some of it is Stockholm Syndrome.

Restrictions don’t matter to most uneducated direct buyers….. but they sure as heck matter.

Speaking for myself, I would never say they do not matter - of course they do. I just think anyone who looks at current RIV vs. PVB direct sales and says, yep, must be those resale restrictions, is looking past a lot of other historical sales data and other potential reasons affecting sales - the list of factors in your prior post are all reasons that could affect direct sales.

Personally, I think it is much more likely that the resale restrictions push some people towards direct sales who would have otherwise just gone resale. If resale PVB or RIV could be used at the O14 and RIV/VDH/CFW/LSL, I think resale would look a lot more attractive there over direct points - of course, price might be different too, especially resale RIV.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Speaking for myself, I would never say they do not matter - of course they do. I just think anyone who looks at current RIV vs. PVB direct sales and says, yep, must be those resale restrictions, is looking past a lot of other historical sales data and other potential reasons affecting sales - the list of factors in your prior post are all reasons that could affect direct sales.

Personally, I think it is much more likely that the resale restrictions push some people towards direct sales who would have otherwise just gone resale. If resale PVB or RIV could be used at the O14 and RIV/VDH/CFW/LSL, I think resale would look a lot more attractive there over direct points - of course, price might be different too, especially resale RIV.

Agreed that it is only one of many factors.

 

[MattB2G]

Yes the restrictions matter, we are one example.

We had a bunch of unrestricted AKV points, but recently needed around 30-50 more points ...... but in order to use them at future resorts we had to buy direct. If the restrictions weren't there we would have probably bought resale when a contract came along in our UY.

Also the converse of this is that we had a mix of restricted and unrestricted resale VGF points, and now won't bother buying any direct VGF points.