DVC having trouble keeping up with increasing memberships???

[disney-super-mom]

Actually the number of members and units makes no difference for most situations. The question is the relative demand for one resort compared to another. Take SSR, a great resort, but not as high of demand as some of the other resorts thus more people vying at the 7 months window. It'll likely take 2000 or so unit that are more in demand to balance that single resort's effect on the system. I think AKV will help to some disagree, CRV certainly will help if the points are in line with the rest. I think GCV will have no effect mostly because it's so small that mostly those that own there will get to stay and almost no one else. HI is hard to say. As a rule most HI resorts only have 50% owner occupancy presumably due to the airfare, Aruba is similar to a degree.

This is exactly what I was thinking too.

 

[Laurabearz]

Eventually I can see the number of members wanting to stay in WDW outweighing the number wanting to stay elsewhere. That's not the same as someone wanting to stay a mile down the road from where there's another room.

See and I eventually see as time goes by WDW owners wanting to Go elsewhere as their kids get older. Hawaii is much more appealing for us in 10 years... My hopes are that our options to go way beyond WDW in the years to come.

 

[dwelty]

You have to know that, at some point, all of those non-WDW owners are going to also book at WDW. Their purchases don't add a single room at WDW, but rest assured, they'll be on the phone at seven months booking BCV if they can get it.

Jim, I agree with all of your points except this one. I think the majority of people who buy at DLR and Hawaii are people who will use there points at those locations for 4 reasons. The first reason is that most of these owners will be on the West Coast, and while they might visit WDW on rare ocasions, it is still a long and expensive flight to Orlando. Second, there will always be a resort for sale at WDW. If that is the place you see yourself going to the most, then why would you buy way out west? third, Points at GCH and Hawaii are almost certainly going to cost more than whatever happens to be on sale at WDW. It is well known that property values in So Cal and Hawaii are substantially higher than Central Florida (one just has to look at the median home price in Orange County CA or Honolulu to see this). Why would you pay more if the majority of your trips will be to WDW?
Finally, there have to be some DVC members who have home resorts at WDW that will ocassionally want to visit Southern California or Hawaii. (In fact, it is the high number of DVC member reservations at DLR resorts that prompted a DVC to be built at DLR in the first place).

I think it will all balance out.

 

[tomandrobin]

Look at these boards now, everyone says don't use your points outside of DVC, better to rent them and pay cash for a cruise, etc. Will a resort in Hawaii help draw some of the WDW owners to another location.

For the most part, trading out of DVC is not good economical sense. There are exceptions to that rule. First, if you don't have another timeshare. Second, you don't have the time or patience dealing with trying to rent your points out and dealing with a rentor(s). Third, trading to high end places like Hawaii (Westin, Marriot) , Atlantis, ski weeks, etc value/cost wise are to similar to worry about.

I think a Hawaii resort will draw more owners from west coast, then from the east coast. I can see west coast owners going every other year ro WDW, then Hawaii. But until the resort is built, its all a guessing game.

 

[tomandrobin]

See and I eventually see as time goes by WDW owners wanting to Go elsewhere as their kids get older. Hawaii is much more appealing for us in 10 years... My hopes are that our options to go way beyond WDW in the years to come.

I agree with this statement, especially when you think about those owners who already have been around for 10-15 years. Adding off-site properties will help keep those members around by giving them more options.

We discovered Disney late in the game. Our two youngest kids are in high school and the oldest just turned 22 recently. So were kind of a tweener family. Love our Disney trips, but go to our places too, like Atlantis and Hawaii.

 

[crisi]

My point is that DVC is seen as a timeshare built around an amusement park. It's not like Marriott where the timeshare is an extension of a worldwide hotel system. People who buy it are doing so to get that Disney experience. Where better to do that than in Walt's dream world?

But Disney is trying to change that perception - DVC doesn't have to be a timeshare built around an amusement park. I don't think people will buy Hawaii intending to go to WDW regularly - unless the points are so much cheaper like they are at Vero.

 

[BroganMc]

But Disney is trying to change that perception - DVC doesn't have to be a timeshare built around an amusement park.

But changing the perception requires a lot more than selling one resort in Hawaii. I think you need at least 10 offsite resorts before people stop associating DVC with amusement park vacations. As it is the program isn't even valuable enough to make a go of their non-DVC ventures like cruises, ABD and Concierge program. The points needed are just too high and getting higher.

I don't think people will buy Hawaii intending to go to WDW regularly - unless the points are so much cheaper like they are at Vero.

It doesn't even have to be regular travel. If 20% of Hawaii owners take a trip to WDW every year and only 5-10% WDW owners travel outside the resort, you have a deficit that will affect 7 mos reservations.

The reason SSR causes so much contention is that a percentage of owners are trying to book other smaller resorts when the same percentage but smaller actual number of those owners are trying to book elsewhere. And that's all within the same geographic location.

Mind you, I'm interested to see if Disney can actually make a go of their Hawaii resort. It makes good PR but in actual practice I'm highly skeptical it will sell well. There are many other cheaper alternatives already in Hawaii. And Disney is still known as the "theme park timeshare".

 

[littlestar]

I also hope that DVC's Hawaii property won't go tiny on the square footage like the BCV, VWL, etcs. We just got back from a big family trip (34 family members) over New Years and my family couldn't get over the square footage difference for BCV vs. Marriott's Grande Vista and Cypress Harbour. My mom kept saying, "boy, Marriott knows how to lay out a unit for comfort." I told her if she tried OKW, she'd love it - Disney didn't skimp on square footage at OKW.