Depends on when D23 falls. It's every 2 years, last was 2017, it was July 14 to 16 (Friday to Sunday). Previous years it was in August. Typically Thursday to Sunday goes at 11 months, with Wednesday before 7 months. I was able to get a 1 bedroom for Sunday to Wednesday nights before the convention. Then we moved to Paradise Pier.
Another consideration for next year is the opening of Star Wars Land.
It is pretty low odds even on the best day, with only something like 23 total studios, and every DVC family being on summer break. Not impossible, but having a good backup plan or flexible travel dates would be to your advantage.
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