Dopey Training - Long Runs

[HangWithMerida]

I don't have much to add that wasn't added already but a few additional notes.

• For winter running have you ever tried trails? I love running the trails in the snow and you don't have to worry about traffic.

I love to mix in trails too but I tend to do them more in the warmer months. I'm sure they are lovely in the snow but we don't get snow. And winter here is peak training time. For me, trails are a nice break from the sun as they tend to have decent tree cover and the nature distracts you from feeling like you are swimming through your run. Also, they force you to slow down naturally so that works well for the mid summer pace adjustment. I find it so interesting to see how northerners vs southerners tweak their training seasons around their weather.

 

[butterscotchcollins]

All this helpful insight and advice, I bow down!!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I transitioned to 5 days a week running for this training cycle and will keep that at a minimum. The plan is to use the beginner Hansons marathon plan for Dopey, so will have to transition to 6 days at this point if not before.

You won't need to do 6 days a week in advance of the 6-day a week plan. Doing 4 or 5 days per week is sufficient. Although personally speaking, I like running six days per week as things tend to feel easier on more days per week than less to me.

The idea was that a 10k plan will have more speed work style runs in a time of year before the temps/humidity become stifling. For the the HM plan, I was looking for one that just focuses on building mileage and not speed work. Once summer kicks in, I just can't push that hard. My T+D even in the early morning is 150-ish in the summer (July-Sept).
Does that seem reasonable? It's not quite what you outlined above but I also am accommodating southern weather challenges and trying to be realistic about what I can physically withstand in mid summer.

Totally reasonable. All factors should be considered when making these types of choices. In order to maximize your gains over a long period of time, you want to hit lots of different areas of the pace spectrum. If your plans are too similar, then you'll stunt your gains. For instance, my two biggest gains in fitness came from the move from 3 days per week to 6 days per week (dropped my marathon from 4:20 down to 3:38), and then was when I did a dedicated Daniels 5k/10k plan from his 3rd edition book in the Spring of 2017. I dropped my 5k time from 21:02 to 19:29. That came completely unexpected after thousands and thousands of miles of training on the legs prior. But it reinforced the methodology to me that you've got to diversify your training plans over the year. I highly recommend the Daniels 5k/10k training plans because they aren't the traditional 400m reps of 5k pace that you commonly see with "speed" plans. When you really dive into the literature it's quite interesting the variety of workouts that you can find vs the super basic ones you find online. I personally have nearly 40 different types of workouts now all with a different purpose:

Easy, LR, LR w/ fast finish, LR +Threshold, Progression, Blind Progression, Mini Progression, M Tempo continuous, M Tempo intervals, M Tempo w/ fast finish, M Tempo w/ Threshold intervals, HM Tempo continuous, HM Tempo intervals, HM Tempo fast finish, Threshold, Threshold + Mile, Threshold + 3k + Mile, Over/Unders, 3k pace, Mile pace, Critical Velocity, Crescendos, Crescendo Holds, Blocks, Blocks with rests, Valleys, Valley Holds, 5k, Minutes, Vigil Miles, Mona, Cutdowns, Hills, Pre-200s, Lumberjacks, Descending Specials Ks, Ascending Special Ks, Rat-A-Tats, and Fast/Steady/Blast.

Me personally, I did a Marathon plan for the Nov Madison M, now I'm in the middle of a 10k devoted plan aim towards the Princess Challenge, then I want to do some Daniels mile specific training in the Spring, the summer will be a brief down period, and then back into a 2022 Madison M training plan. None of these plans over the course of the year have the same types of workouts in them. The Madison M was M tempo focused, the 10k plan has been VO2max and LT focused, and the mile training will be anaerobic focused.

 

[accm]

Most training plans last about 16-18 weeks based on the ability of runners to continuously build in training load up until a point of stagnation. Most runners respond better to increasing volume, a small minority respond better to stagnant volume with increased intensity. So when planning multiple training plans over a year's time, it's important to map them out in chunks.

Marathon Weekend 2023 is the week of 1/2/23.
18 weeks prior is 9/5/23. So it's typical to start Dopey training around the beginning of September.

Between 1/3/22 and 9/5/23 there are 35 weeks. I like to see 1-2 weeks off between training plans to allow the training load to drop and recover. This allows you to peak again towards the end of the plan. Those who don't take time off after a recent training plan tend to peak too early for their next race. So that would be an additional two plans based on the 33ish weeks available. What you do with those two plans partially depends on what you have been doing lately, and what you want to attempt to do during the Dopey training, and your goals for Dopey. If you want to be in the best shape of your life going into Dopey, then I'd consider plan #1 to get in a life pattern of making running something you do regularly. I'd then consider a 5k/10k plan over the summer that still uses relatively high mileage (not a beginner's 5k/10k plan) to induce gains in your raw speed and lactate threshold. Then move into Dopey for endurance.

I haven't been doing much running at all, mostly riding the peloton and doing strength workouts. Do you have a plan that you'd recommend I start off with? And then a good 5k/10k plan for afterwards? I'd like to train for the Dopey so I'm in the best shape, but my goals will still be to finish all the races and be able to walk afterwards, and choose one race to go for a faster time (probably the half since that's the one I was disappointed with this last time)

I'm assuming I'd be better off waiting until closer to September to talk to you about a custom plan?

I don't have much to add that wasn't added already but a few additional notes.

• For winter running have you ever tried trails? I love running the trails in the snow and you don't have to worry about traffic. It is also a great aerobic base builder which leads me to...

I actually prefer to run in trails, although this summer I got spooked by bear sightings and poop in the trails by my house, so ended up doing most of my runs on the road. I'll give it a try, although I'm not sure what the snow conditions are like.

• For the injury I'd go see a DPT, not your PCP (or the Canadian equivalent). I've seen non-running focused doctors tell people to just stop running or rest but both are often not the right answer. A knee injury might need some rest but just as important is strengthening exercises to stabilize it and prevent future injuries.

I believe in Canada I need a referral from my family doctor to see a Physio therapist. I've actually always been reluctant to see doctors for sports injuries, after I heard "stop dancing" every time my mom would force me to see a doctor from a dance related injury growing up. I'm also planning on calling some sports injury clinics to see if I can make an appointment without a referral.

 

[HangWithMerida]

@DopeyBadger I'll have to check out the Daniels plans. I definitely need to focus on mixing my workouts up a bit. This past year especially, I settled into just running easy. This training cycle has been challenging just getting back into the swing of actually working out!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I haven't been doing much running at all, mostly riding the peloton and doing strength workouts. Do you have a plan that you'd recommend I start off with?

First things first, you'll want to figure out the advice from the medical professional on a return to running and what the injury may be. Hopefully something simple.

So it looks like you mentioned you ran W&D Challenge, hurt knee, and haven't run since (except for the one recent time). Is that right? So you're at essentially 8 weeks off. If that's the case, then you should consider yourself nearly 100% fully detrained per Daniels guidelines. So you're definitely going to want to slowly ease yourself back in. How many days per week were you doing during Wine and Dine training? What were your three peak weeks in terms of mileage and duration during that training plan? How does that volume compare to the level of training you were doing before the Wine and Dine training plan started?

And then a good 5k/10k plan for afterwards?

That'll depend on the above, but I'm not sure you want to go with the Daniels 5k/10k plan like I recommended to @HangWithMerida. It may be too much too soon.

I'm assuming I'd be better off waiting until closer to September to talk to you about a custom plan?

Yes, I recommend 2 weeks before you want the plan to start. I'm usually helping as many as 50 people at a time. Additionally, once we're two weeks out from the beginning of the plan we have a really good idea what you were doing leading into the plan. For example, I could write a Dopey plan now, but it would be essentially useless without knowing your fitness level in September and your availability. Those things can easily change in nine months, but are less likely to change dramatically in two weeks.

 

[accm]

So it looks like you mentioned you ran W&D Challenge, hurt knee, and haven't run since (except for the one recent time). Is that right? So you're at essentially 8 weeks off. If that's the case, then you should consider yourself nearly 100% fully detrained per Daniels guidelines. So you're definitely going to want to slowly ease yourself back in. How many days per week were you doing during Wine and Dine training? What were your three peak weeks in terms of mileage and duration during that training plan? How does that volume compare to the level of training you were doing before the Wine and Dine training plan started?

Yes, I've remained active, but with no running.
To be completely honest, I didn't really follow a training plan for W&D very closely, and even then, I skipped a lot of workouts (usually the short runs, which from reading the links you shared, I see was actually worse than skipping the long runs). I was trying to do 3 days of running, with probably 2 or 3 additional days of cross training (weights/cycling). Peak week was 22 miles, and almost 4hrs, but that was an outliner. Other than that one, I did 11 miles in 1hr50m, 9 miles in 1.5hrs. I was not running at all before starting midway through July, but I was cycling 4-5 days a week.

 

[DopeyBadger]

To be completely honest, I didn't really follow a training plan for W&D very closely, and even then, I skipped a lot of workouts (usually the short runs, which from reading the links you shared, I see was actually worse than skipping the long runs).

Makes sense. I think this probably explains the knee injury. I would guess that it's runner's knee and a manifestation of overtraining (or more specifically biting off more than you could in both training (long runs too long based on other runs) and Wine and Dine itself). Use it as a lesson learned.

I think what this says to me, is that your first run plan back should be really easy volume and the focus should be on consistency more than anything.

I was trying to do 3 days of running, with probably 2 or 3 additional days of cross training (weights/cycling). Peak week was 22 miles, and almost 4hrs, but that was an outliner. Other than that one, I did 11 miles in 1hr50m, 9 miles in 1.5hrs. I was not running at all before starting midway through July, but I was cycling 4-5 days a week.

Alright, so that's:

22 miles, 4 hrs, 10:55 min/mile average
11 miles, 1:50, 10:00 min/mile average
9 miles, 1:30, 10:00 min/mile average

So my question is, what would you assess your fitness as? What do you think you could have reasonably run a 5k in during the midst of Wine and Dine training? Based on the 10 min/mile (if it were appropriate), I'd say you should be able to run a 7:13 mile, 24:21 5k, 50:46 10k, and 1:52 HM. How does that compare with reality?

My guess is you were likely training too fast (as is normal for most just getting into running or for others who never have someone explain train slow to race fast). Most runners without a set pace goal tend to gravitate around LT to HM Tempo pace. So does a 8:27 mile, 29 min 5k, 1:00 10k, and 2:13 HM seem more like you? Based on that, I would give the following training paces:



With 80% of training at 11:32 min/mile or slower, and your average training pace should come out somewhere closer to an 11:51 min/mile.

I'd probably recommend something like this to start off with one change:

https://www.halhigdon.com/training-programs/10k-training/novice-10k/


I'd recommend adding in three more weeks before it at -1 mile each of the first three weeks. So 1.5+1+2, 1.5+1+2.5, 1.5+2+3, and then move into the plan as written with Week 1. It peaks at 10.5 miles which is far less than you peaked at for Wine and Dine (22), but not all that different than your other two weeks (11 and 9). If you look at this and think it's too easy, then I think that's perfect. Because for this intro training plan, I want the focus to be on consistency. The plan (including the three extra weeks) has 54 total workouts. I want you to try and accomplish 90% of what's written. So that's 49/54 workouts with only five missed. If you miss a day (let's say Wednesday of Week 5 at 40 min cross just becomes hectic and you can't do it), then I want you to just move on (continue on to Thurs Week 5 as if Wed did occur). Don't make up workouts, or add on mileage to a future day to compensate. Move on. Now if things spiral and you miss several in a row, don't throw everything in the trash and just give up on it. Reassess and return appropriately.

Thoughts?

 

[accm]

My guess is you were likely training too fast (as is normal for most just getting into running or for others who never have someone explain train slow to race fast). Most runners without a set pace goal tend to gravitate around LT to HM Tempo pace. So does a 8:27 mile, 29 min 5k, 1:00 10k, and 2:13 HM seem more like you? Based on that, I would give the following training paces:

I'd say these are pretty spot on.

With 80% of training at 11:32 min/mile or slower, and your average training pace should come out somewhere closer to an 11:51 min/mile.

I'd probably recommend something like this to start off with one change:

https://www.halhigdon.com/training-programs/10k-training/novice-10k/
View attachment 634178

I'd recommend adding in three more weeks before it at -1 mile each of the first three weeks. So 1.5+1+2, 1.5+1+2.5, 1.5+2+3, and then move into the plan as written with Week 1. It peaks at 10.5 miles which is far less than you peaked at for Wine and Dine (22), but not all that different than your other two weeks (11 and 9). If you look at this and think it's too easy, then I think that's perfect. Because for this intro training plan, I want the focus to be on consistency. The plan (including the three extra weeks) has 54 total workouts. I want you to try and accomplish 90% of what's written. So that's 49/54 workouts with only five missed. If you miss a day (let's say Wednesday of Week 5 at 40 min cross just becomes hectic and you can't do it), then I want you to just move on (continue on to Thurs Week 5 as if Wed did occur). Don't make up workouts, or add on mileage to a future day to compensate. Move on. Now if things spiral and you miss several in a row, don't throw everything in the trash and just give up on it. Reassess and return appropriately.

Thoughts?

It does look too easy, which by the sounds of it, is exactly what it should be. So it seems like a good place to start. The 11:32 will definitely be hard, and I'm sure will take some time to get used to without staring at my watch the whole time.

If I know I'll be missing a week due to vacation (going to Disney end of January), should I just pick up where I left off?

 

[accm]

@DopeyBadger Thank you for all the information and help. I really appreciate it. I'm planning on buying a book to understand more of the whys behind training plans. From your previous posts, it sounds like Daniel's Running Formula is a good one? Is there a better one that you'd recommend for a beginner?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I'd say these are pretty spot on.

Nice! I've been around the block a few times and have gotten good at predicting based on limited data.

It does look too easy, which by the sounds of it, is exactly what it should be. So it seems like a good place to start. The 11:32 will definitely be hard, and I'm sure will take some time to get used to without staring at my watch the whole time.

Yes, that is exactly what we want. And the 11:32 is for the weekend run only. The other two should be more like the Easy 1 and 2 paces (11:50-12:40).

For most, it takes several weeks before the easy running feels normal. So just be patient with the process. With the Easy 1 pace, it should feel ridiculously easy. Like you start running, you run, and then you finish. And when you walk in the door you literally feel like you didn't do anything. That's a successful easy day. So easy it feels like you didn't run. And surprisingly over time, this will make you faster. Because consistency is king, and consistency is easier when the workouts are easier.

If I know I'll be missing a week due to vacation (going to Disney end of January), should I just pick up where I left off?

I'd say it's too early to say until you know from the Dr how to proceed with the knee injury. But assuming you started next week, then I would say just repeat whatever the last complete week was upon return and then move forward.

For example, Week 3 was the week before your Disney trip. Then Week 4 is missed during the Disney trip. Then instead of Week 5, the week after the Disney trip, go back to Week 3 and continue forward from there. The rule of thumb is 5 days or less, you tend to move on (as long as this is a one time occurrence of 5 days and not a pattern). But greater than five days typically requires a significant adjustment (like the proposed above). Since there is no goal race at the end of this training plan per se, then that grants us more flexibility with the eyes on consistency more than anything else.

@DopeyBadger Thank you for all the information and help. I really appreciate it. I'm planning on buying a book to understand more of the whys behind training plans. From your previous posts, it sounds like Daniel's Running Formula is a good one? Is there a better one that you'd recommend for a beginner?

-Daniels Running Formula 3rd edition is a great book.
-The Hansons Marathon Method is also a fantastic book.
-I have not read McMillan's book (You Only Faster), but I trust McMillan to say that it is likely also a good book.
-I have not read 80/20 by Matt Fitzgerald either (but another good author and I have read the research paper's by Selier by which the book is based on).

 

[GreatLakes]

-Daniels Running Formula 3rd edition is a great book.
-The Hansons Marathon Method is also a fantastic book.
-I have not read McMillan's book (You Only Faster), but I trust McMillan to say that it is likely also a good book.
-I have not read 80/20 by Matt Fitzgerald either (but another good author and I have read the research paper's by Selier by which the book is based on).

I second the two I highlighted above. They were my two main references for my current plan. I also highly recommend Run for Your Life by Dr. Mark Cucuzzella. That book isn't as much about training plans, though they are touched on, but goes very deeply into mechanics not just for running but for a healthy foot. I ditched my SuperFeet based on his book and a few podcasts.

I haven't read 80/20 by Matt Fitzgerald but do own one of his other books, Run Faster from the 5K to Marathon and really like his methodology. I've heard him on podcasts and while I have not read his book yet it is on my bookshelf to dig into in the future.

 

[lookingforsunshine]

but goes very deeply into mechanics not just for running but for a healthy foot. I ditched my SuperFeet based on his book

I have had chronic foot problems my entire life, I predict stemming from cramming my feet into ice skates for many hours every week from age 8-21. Did you have any foot problems before reading the book that you feel were fixed? I think one of my goals of 2022 is going to be to try to solve my foot pain problems.

 

[GreatLakes]

I have had chronic foot problems my entire life, I predict stemming from cramming my feet into ice skates for many hours every week from age 8-21. Did you have any foot problems before reading the book that you feel were fixed? I think one of my goals of 2022 is going to be to try to solve my foot pain problems.

I had a little foot pain at the start of my training cycle. The removal of the inserts didn't really change much but it kept it from getting worse. I think my current problem is actually stemming from tight calves, at east that is what my massage therapist is guessing and he works with professional runners. When I roll out my calves and get in there with a lacrosse ball my foot feels much better. It starts each run as a little niggle and I run it out in about a mile. If I don't think about it I don't notice it.

When I had similar pain in the other foot last marathon cycle I powered through and it was terrible the entire time. This time it started the same but stayed mild. Part of that was removing the insoles (I think at least) and part was the strengthening drills he has. I have a DPT I go to on occasion and he had also given me some of the exact same advise in the book.

Dr. Cucuzzella is in WV and often does clinics at his running store, at least pre-Covid. We have family with a ski house not too far from him so I'm planning at some point to go down, attend a clinic, and also knock out a run in the new Gorge River NP.

 

[kps7795]

First things first, you'll want to figure out the advice from the medical professional on a return to running and what the injury may be. Hopefully something simple.

So it looks like you mentioned you ran W&D Challenge, hurt knee, and haven't run since (except for the one recent time). Is that right? So you're at essentially 8 weeks off. If that's the case, then you should consider yourself nearly 100% fully detrained per Daniels guidelines. So you're definitely going to want to slowly ease yourself back in. How many days per week were you doing during Wine and Dine training? What were your three peak weeks in terms of mileage and duration during that training plan? How does that volume compare to the level of training you were doing before the Wine and Dine training plan started?



That'll depend on the above, but I'm not sure you want to go with the Daniels 5k/10k plan like I recommended to @HangWithMerida. It may be too much too soon.



Yes, I recommend 2 weeks before you want the plan to start. I'm usually helping as many as 50 people at a time. Additionally, once we're two weeks out from the beginning of the plan we have a really good idea what you were doing leading into the plan. For example, I could write a Dopey plan now, but it would be essentially useless without knowing your fitness level in September and your availability. Those things can easily change in nine months, but are less likely to change dramatically in two weeks.

This feels almost like a non sequitor, but I'm curious about utilizing the Daniels VDOT tables to establish your paces for training and for the race itself. I have been using my August half-marathon race time to establish a VDOT value of 33. Over the course of the last three months, I know that my fitness has improved tremendously - which is great and I am thrilled with my progress thus far. Nonetheless, how do you know when to increase your VDOT value other than running another race and utilizing THAT time? I don't remember Daniels describing a periodic test run to determine when you should alter your VDOT value.

 

[DopeyBadger]

This feels almost like a non sequitor, but I'm curious about utilizing the Daniels VDOT tables to establish your paces for training and for the race itself. I have been using my August half-marathon race time to establish a VDOT value of 33. Over the course of the last three months, I know that my fitness has improved tremendously - which is great and I am thrilled with my progress thus far. Nonetheless, how do you know when to increase your VDOT value other than running another race and utilizing THAT time? I don't remember Daniels describing a periodic test run to determine when you should alter your VDOT value.

So that looks something like this:





The rule of thumb on adjusting paces is no more than every 6-8 weeks and no closer to the "A" event than 8 weeks. This is because the body takes about 6-8 weeks to fully acclimate to a new pace scheme. It's also because the cardiovascular system and skeletal/muscular system improve at different rates. The cardio system can improve or nearly maximize in 8 weeks. So you'll have the appearance of better fitness. But the skeletal/muscular system typically takes about 12 weeks to fully maximize. So there's a dead period between 8-12 weeks where you do run some risk where your cardio says you can, but your muscular/skeletal says we're not ready yet. It's a prime time for injuries because your body is sending you mixed messages on your ability to handle more.

A very simple test is to simply run a mile with a 20-30 min warm up prior. If you personally can run faster than a 8:27 mile now, then you know you can adjust your paces accordingly without having to run a longer distance race that requires more recovery. But traditionally, the best way to adjust your paces is by using a "B" race within the training plan. For me personally, I tend to stick with a single pace scheme for the duration of a training plan, with eyes on the HRvPace relationship (effort) of which I'm very in tune with.

Just be aware, you're fairly unlikely to hold yourself back if you train slightly too slow. The windows on the slow side of the pace spectrum are quite large. You can go as slow as +5 min from 5k pace, and still reap the aerobic benefits of an easy day. So in numbers, you could go as slow as a 14 min/mile based on the pace scheme above and still reap classic easy day aerobic benefits. But the faster you go within the pace spectrum up to the anaerobic window, the tighter the spaces get. Where if you overcorrect your pace scheme to too fast, then you're pushing a system inappropriately with the training.

 

[kps7795]

So that looks something like this:

View attachment 634371

View attachment 634372

The rule of thumb on adjusting paces is no more than every 6-8 weeks and no closer to the "A" event than 8 weeks. This is because the body takes about 6-8 weeks to fully acclimate to a new pace scheme. It's also because the cardiovascular system and skeletal/muscular system improve at different rates. The cardio system can improve or nearly maximize in 8 weeks. So you'll have the appearance of better fitness. But the skeletal/muscular system typically takes about 12 weeks to fully maximize. So there's a dead period between 8-12 weeks where you do run some risk where your cardio says you can, but your muscular/skeletal says we're not ready yet. It's a prime time for injuries because your body is sending you mixed messages on your ability to handle more.

A very simple test is to simply run a mile with a 20-30 min warm up prior. If you personally can run faster than a 8:27 mile now, then you know you can adjust your paces accordingly without having to run a longer distance race that requires more recovery. But traditionally, the best way to adjust your paces is by using a "B" race within the training plan. For me personally, I tend to stick with a single pace scheme for the duration of a training plan, with eyes on the HRvPace relationship (effort) of which I'm very in tune with.

Just be aware, you're fairly unlikely to hold yourself back if you train slightly too slow. The windows on the slow side of the pace spectrum are quite large. You can go as slow as +5 min from 5k pace, and still reap the aerobic benefits of an easy day. So in numbers, you could go as slow as a 14 min/mile based on the pace scheme above and still reap classic easy day aerobic benefits. But the faster you go within the pace spectrum up to the anaerobic window, the tighter the spaces get. Where if you overcorrect your pace scheme to too fast, then you're pushing a system inappropriately with the training.

My goal is to get myself to a 43 in order to achieve a 1:45 half-marathon. Following the marathon (of course), I suppose the best thing to do would be to try out the mile test to gauge my fitness level and go from there. There are two half marathons that I am considering running to establish a good POT in either February (probably too close) or April. If I understand what you were saying correctly, if I'm unable to run a mile in 7:42, then I risk injury if I jump from 33 to 43 for my training. Any recommendations other than be smart about jumping too much too early?

 

[DopeyBadger]

My goal is to get myself to a 43 in order to achieve a 1:45 half-marathon. Following the marathon (of course), I suppose the best thing to do would be to try out the mile test to gauge my fitness level and go from there. There are two half marathons that I am considering running to establish a good POT in either February (probably too close) or April. If I understand what you were saying correctly, if I'm unable to run a mile in 7:42, then I risk injury if I jump from 33 to 43 for my training. Any recommendations other than be smart about jumping too much too early?

Going along with what I said earlier, the phrase is "train where you are, not where you want to be". I respect that you want to be a 1:45 HM runner from a 2:10 HM runner. But under no circumstances should you change your VDOT 33 training paces to VDOT 43 training paces without matching one of the other matching race performances (6:44 mile, 22:52 5k, 47:26 10k, or 1:45 HM).



Be patient and the improvements will come with time.

If you run a mile time trial and do it in 7:42 (VDOT 36.6), then set your paces based on that.



If you run a mile in 8:20, or 7:35, or whatever, then set the paces based on that. But be wary of doing this change anywhere close to the peak of your training because you may not be endurance physically/muscularly/skeletally prepared for it. For instance, let's say your current LR was 10 miles. You are currently doing a 10:53 min/mile for your LR pace. You run a 7:55 mile in a time trial. Your new LR pace is 10:31 min/mile. I would be very wary of suggesting that you go out and do your 11 mile run at 10:31 min/mile because you may not be physically ready for that quite yet despite what the mile time trial data says.

Let's say you're about to start a new training plan for the Feb HM or April HM, hopefully with a break somewhere in there after the August HM. You're looking at 5-8 weeks out from the Feb race, and 14-16 weeks out from the April race. If you've been training since August, then I suggest doing a mile or 5k race sometime soon. Then take a week or so off. Adjust the training paces to match based on that performance. And then start a new training plan aimed towards the April HM based on those new paces. The volume should start off lower and build throughout the plan. This will allow your body to become accustomed to the new paces while at a lower volume, and then over time as the plan increase in volume you will tolerate it better and hopefully peak in April.

As for general improvements in VDOT, the research says the improvement for an individual tends to be on average somewhere around 20-30%. So let's say 33 was your floor, then the research would suggest that an average improvement over a lifetime would be something like 39.6 to 43 VDOT (1:52 to 1:44 HM). This is the average. So there are some who improve less and some who improve more, over a lifetime. I did a small voluntary gathering of information from the DIS earlier this year. A total of 15 runners participated (so a very small number). They spanned 4000-25000 career miles over 4-23 years of historical running with ages in the 20s to 60s. The average was 24% gain in VDOT from first race to best performance for this group of runners which falls in line with the research data. The lowest was 2% and the highest was 74% (me). So if you're setting a realistic lifetime improvement, then aim for the average of 25% or so, but know that some have done as much as a 74% gain.