Done the math? Availability.

[TisBit]

Without getting wrapped into the numbers, it is actually pretty simple to tell if the resort has been oversold. You just have to calculate the room cost total for the year and how many of each room (be easiest with a resort that doesn't have lock offs, because that can skew the numbers).

You will never "always" have availability, because you have to take into account banking and borrowing. Now, if they eliminated banking/borrowing and trading resorts, yes you would always have availability...but it would not necessarily be consecutive nights (such as a wed/thur/fri...but maybe one day in april, one in july and one december)....all based on what other people have booked.

The only truely balanced timeshare would be a fixed week timeshare with specific Sat-Sat bookings as previously mentioned....but those systems are also a lot less flexible.

 

[DenLo]

Without getting wrapped into the numbers, it is actually pretty simple to tell if the resort has been oversold. You just have to calculate the room cost total for the year and how many of each room (be easiest with a resort that doesn't have lock offs, because that can skew the numbers).

I think you just eliminated the DVC from the easy category with that restriction.

Wouldn't it be easier to use a resort like BLT where all the villas except the 14 grand villas are 2BR lockoffs? So you treat those rooms as 2BRs and not worry about the 1BR/studio scenario.

 

[fishermouse]

Then the numbers should support that, right? I'd like to see them myself, but I can't do it without help.

If it's a law, there has to be public record proving, or at least attempting to prove, DVD's compliance somewhere.

I think your missing the seasonal factor, we go down almost every year during the winter months, Jan thru March when there are many empty rooms. in most resorts. Spring with the exception of spring break often is not filled to capacity. Point is all these unused off season points are being used during busier seasons which causes a seasonal shortage. DVC has played with the points charts as much as they legally can to balance things out, but peak seasons will always be booked up early. Try to get an epcot resort during F+W but a week after is not a problem.

 

[Cap]

They are required to have an outside auditor, and that auditor would get in huge issues if the total # of points sold were greater than the number of points needed to book room nights.

Don't believe that having an "outside auditor" means that there is any in-depth analysis done. I've seen outside auditors who generally report what the customer (who is paying the auditor) wants reported, unless A) the auditor actually finds a problem and B) it is a REALLY BIG problem. I've also seen outside auditors who do a good look the first year they are hired, but then just do a very minor review each year thereafter.

Regarding availability, remember that other DVC members get to book inventory starting at the seven month window. So, if DVC owners at WDW don't book during their exclusive booking window, they owners from other locations may have used up inventory. How many people who own at Vero book at WDW?

Also, DVC can sell points assuming full occupancy 365 days. Every "breakage" reservation given to CRO when something is not booked 60 days out means someone doesn't get availability, unless they specifically traded out of a DVC unit. With more and more members, planning ahead and using the 11 month window will, in my opinion, become increasingly important.

 

[crisi]

Don't believe that having an "outside auditor" means that there is any in-depth analysis done. I've seen outside auditors who generally report what the customer (who is paying the auditor) wants reported, unless A) the auditor actually finds a problem and B) it is a REALLY BIG problem. I've also seen outside auditors who do a good look the first year they are hired, but then just do a very minor review each year thereafter.

If that's all the auditors are doing, they are violating audit standards and should have their CPAs pulled and may end up in jail. In a post Enron SOX world, this is VERY important.

But for this purpose, a minor review is all that is needed. Points required in total won't increase (a point reallocation should trigger an audit activity to confirm this), then all they have to do is check the points outstanding against that number.

 

[crisi]

Well i would sure be a "Happy Camper" if i happened to book a "Value Room" & was upgraded upon check in I wonder IF all the Value Studios at AKL Jambo have really already been booked out for Christmas/Newyear by D.V.C members? I would expect so But then the "Cash Paying Guest" could be assigned the "Value Room" & the D.V.C member could get the "Upgrade"

It won't work that way. As a timeshare guest, you'll almost never get a "no reason" complementary upgrade at any timeshare. It wouldn't be fair to the other owners. DVC CAN'T overbook standard rooms, it would throw off their point accounting. But CRO CAN and DOES - because they don't have to worry about points balancing in the end. As a CRO guest, Disney owns that room, they don't have to worry about "fair to the other guests." Those upgrades will go to cash guests.

 

[TisBit]

I think you just eliminated the DVC from the easy category with that restriction.

Wouldn't it be easier to use a resort like BLT where all the villas except the 14 grand villas are 2BR lockoffs? So you treat those rooms as 2BRs and not worry about the 1BR/studio scenario.

HHI would be easiest because my understanding is they have no lock offs. The problem is treating them all as 2 bedrooms is not necessarily reflective on how they calculate the points because it costs different points for a 2 bedroom vs a 1 bedroom and a studio. I am sure there is some type of standard that is used to do this and it might be as simple as those points are totaled and split to create a "balance" in the end.

When DVC files and declares inventory, they must publish the total point costs for that room to be booked for a year. Those points are than available for sale. It is actually a pretty simple process and really only becomes complicated when you start trying to do the math from home without all the regulatory filings, laws and regulations in front of you.

If a company wanted to somehow inflate, oversell or overcharge it would be much easier and less trackable with the use of MF's...not the point totals. Look at Aulani, it is a muddled mess when you start calculating the cost of a resort to include transportation/amnenities, etc. So, for instance at any of the WDW resorts that are shared with a hotel...how do you really know if your MF's are paying for a portion of the hotel services or if the hotel is supplementing the DVC. It will always be a moving target that you must try to hit when calculating costs. The front desk salaries aren't necessarily split 50/50...because do they really spend 50% of their time on each task?

 

[crisi]

If a company wanted to somehow inflate, oversell or overcharge it would be much easier and less trackable with the use of MF's...not the point totals. Look at Aulani, it is a muddled mess when you start calculating the cost of a resort to include transportation/amnenities, etc. So, for instance at any of the WDW resorts that are shared with a hotel...how do you really know if your MF's are paying for a portion of the hotel services or if the hotel is supplementing the DVC. It will always be a moving target that you must try to hit when calculating costs. The front desk salaries aren't necessarily split 50/50...because do they really spend 50% of their time on each task?

When you do cost accounting, you make decisions. We don't always agree with the decisions that Disney makes in terms of allocating costs, but they legally get a fair amount of leeway in doing so. Years ago someone was trying to figure out cost accounting regarding transportation. In the end, I understood what Disney was doing. For transportation - do you use a proportional break by number of rooms (in which case, DVC, which has few rooms per person gets a break), room capacity (in which case CRO gets a break) or split it 50/50 (in which case BWV doesn't do too bad, but VWL is getting shafted). (IIRC, and I might not, they break it proportionally by number of rooms, but then also by point, which is why BWV ends up with higher transportation cost per point - because overall when you add the standard view rooms, there are fewer points).


Much of this comes down to trust. You are entering into a contract in which you have little practical recourse over 30 years. You either trust Disney (and their auditors, and the law governing timeshares) or you don't. If you don't, membership really is probably not a good thing. If you do, its a fun intellectual exercise in "how Disney does cost accounting" for certain types of geeks.

 

[wdrl]

HHI would be easiest because my understanding is they have no lock offs.

When DVC files and declares inventory, they must publish the total point costs for that room to be booked for a year.

Actually, HHI has 21 lock-off two-bedroom villas.

DVD does not publish the total points to book a room for a year. Instead, it establishes a formula for each resort, allotting points to a Unit based on the square footage of the Unit. For example, each two-bedroom villa at BLT is allotted 19,640 points; each Grand Villa is allotted 34,975 points. It doesn't matter whether the villa is assigned an MK view, a Lake View, or a Standard View.

 

[tjkraz]

Biggest problem right now is that the seasons are out of whack. Demand for fall dates (October - early December) is far greater than it should be for Adventure and Choice seasons. Other periods are under priced respective to demand--May comes immediately to mind.

Fixing those inequities would help address the situation of fall dates being consistently booked up as much as 10 months out.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Biggest problem right now is that the seasons are out of whack. Demand for fall dates (October - early December) is far greater than it should be for Adventure and Choice seasons. Other periods are under priced respective to demand--May comes immediately to mind.

Fixing those inequities would help address the situation of fall dates being consistently booked up as much as 10 months out.

I agree.

The DVC seasons and point charts were based on the demand patterns of traditional WDW resort guests. However, those DVC seasons and charts have been too successful at getting DVC members to book vacations at traditionally slow times.

Fall is traditionally slow at WDW, but with lower DVC points requirements and the Epcot Food & Wine Festival, Fall has become a very popular time for DVC stays. The time between Thanksgiving and the middle and December has traditionally been even slower at WDW, but, again, the advantageous point charts, the nice weather, and the holiday decorations and festivities have made this a popular time for DVC members.

Of course, whenever DVC tweaks the point charts to spread demand more evenly across the whole year, there's an outcry from those DVC members who liked the old charts more.

 

[cosmos]

.....In fact, the Master Declaration states that all Home Resort Vacation Points assigned to DVD in connection with its Ownership Interests will be governed by the same rules and regulations pertaining to all Club Members. In other words, DVD is treated as any other Club Member in using its points.

How does this relate to DVC rules on commercial renters? Isn't what DVD is doing considered being a commercial renter?

Thanks.

.

 

[tjkraz]

How does this relate to DVC rules on commercial renters? Isn't what DVD is doing considered being a commercial renter?

Thanks.

.

Some would say they are commercial renters. For all of DVC's bluster, I've never heard of them taking any direct action against a renter. A few years back they sent out a notice stating that 20+ reservations in a year would be considered commercial. I can guarantee there are people over that number yet there have been no stories of cancelled reservations or restricted point usage.

 

[spiceycat]

some months are easy to get - others are hard and Dec has always even when OKW (DVC then) was the only one.

this has been discussed before - okay it has been a few years.

so my best advice is - if you think you will want Dec - then go it in Jan - yes your schedule does not allow that - but if you want Dec then you must do it in Jan.

sometimes you will have to cancel your Dec reservation because of your work - but other times you might be able to go in Dec and would need that reservations.

wish there was another way - but first reserve get it is DVC way

is it fair - well I think so and so do the majority or DVC would change it.

even my weekly timeshare requires me to say a good 10 to 6 months before hand if I want the reservation.

so really think you might want out of timeshares altogether.

or start taking a chance and making your reservations 11 months before and then canceling or changing if you can.