Domestic park attendance down 4% in Q3

[jade1]

True. This is starting to make me believe we don't need FP at all. I'd really like to see wait times without any FP today.

Up to them.

But logically the wait for FP guests is a fraction of SB. It's just what % are the reserving with FP. Those 2 numbers would give the average wait.

Obviously 100% FP would be bouncing around a bit with the hour window and breakdowns, but likely a very reasonable average.

99% might give a 5 hour wait for SB, but that would not be logical to say it's a 5 hour wait when it's only for 1%.

The scale slides from there.

Without FP my guess is still an hour or more for the popular attractions in general.

 

[jade1]

Nobody ever considered that it's all a shell game?

And that the only way to increase the product for consumer is to add things to do? Not repackage and redistribute?

Hmmm...

WDW does not have a capacity problem.

 

[rteetz]

Up to them.

But logically the wait for FP guests is a fraction of SB. It's just what % are the reserving with FP. Those 2 numbers would give the average wait.

Obviously 100% FP would be bouncing around a bit with the hour window and breakdowns, but likely a very reasonable average.

99% might give a 5 hour wait for SB, but that would not be logical to say it's a 5 hour wait when it's only for 1%.

The scale slides from there.

Without FP my guess is still an hour or more for the popular attractions in general.

It's always up to them there is no need to say that everytime. We are on a discussion board where we can discuss things like that.

I would agree with your guess that even without Fastpasses it would still be over an hour but exact time would interesting to see.

 

[mikepizzo]

Everyone on this thread is wrong. It is not Any Disney park, it is not any six flags park, not Busch gardens. We all need to go pay to get into Quassy(sp?) spend the day and then return to this discussion.

(I would have used Lake Compounce, but I recently discovered I like it there after not going for 14 years)

Hey there, another person from CT *waves*

Was it Quassy or Lake Compounce that (has/had?) the free soda?

 

[jade1]

It's always up to them there is no need to say that everytime. We are on a discussion board where we can discuss things like that.

I would agree with your guess that even without Fastpasses it would still be over an hour but exact time would interesting to see.

Well there you have it, I for one am not willing to wait an hour for the popular attractions.

Likely was the number one complaint at WDW.

Had that same decision pre FP. But I guess it was "up to them" and they decided to implement FP, and later change the FP distribution process/technology and likely QTY of FP.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

WDW does not have a capacity problem.

The topic was wait times...not capacity.

Those are not the same thing. A 2 hour wait for the mine train does not indicate the park is full..nor does it suggest there is a problem that has to be solved.

They can add to provide better product and preserve longterm repeat business and Value (i submit that those two things are identical)...but it's not required.

 

[rteetz]

The topic was wait times...not capacity.

Those are not the same thing. A 2 hour wait for the mine train does not indicate the park is full..nor does it suggest there is a problem that has to be solved.

They can add to provide better product and preserve longterm repeat business and Value (i submit that those two things are identical)...but it's not required.

I agree.

Another thing that could be discussed is ride specific capacity. Mine train for example does not have the hourly capacity of say HM or SSE which is why it will have longer waits. Ride specific capacity doesn't necessarily mean the park as a whole has a capacity problem though.

 

[jade1]

The topic was wait times...not capacity.

Those are not the same thing. A 2 hour wait for the mine train does not indicate the park is full..nor does it suggest there is a problem that has to be solved.

They can add to provide better product and preserve longterm repeat business and Value (i submit that those two things are identical)...but it's not required.

I've covered that earlier.

There's a difference between getting in and having a spot to stand in the park (closing to capacity), and being able to tour a bit easier with somewhat reasonable attraction (FP+ helps a lot with this) and dining waits.

They don't close MK because 7DMT is a 2 hour wait for example.

 

[jade1]

Amazing. Quite the different answers when others ask.

WDW doesn't have a capacity problem. Sure they have crowds but they aren't at or near capacity and if they were we would see Disney use the phased closing.

There's a difference between getting in and having a spot to stand in the park (closing to capacity), and being able to tour a bit easier with somewhat reasonable attraction (FP+ helps a lot with this) and dining waits.

They don't close MK because 7DMT is a 2 hour wait for example.

Of course there is a difference but you can't say the parks are at capacity or have a capacity problem when that's not true. Of course they are crowded but they aren't at capacity.

The topic was wait times...not capacity.

Those are not the same thing. A 2 hour wait for the mine train does not indicate the park is full..nor does it suggest there is a problem that has to be solved.

I agree.

Another thing that could be discussed is ride specific capacity. Mine train for example does not have the hourly capacity of say HM or SSE which is why it will have longer waits. Ride specific capacity doesn't necessarily mean the park as a whole has a capacity problem though.

 

[rteetz]

Amazing. Quite the different answers when others ask.

I'm confused

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I'm confused

I'm double confused...that's 3 of us..

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Jade seems to think that a Disney ticket includes a "comfortable touring experience"

No way, Juanita...

Never the case...that's ludicrous.

They sell an entry point to a fence that contains a posted list of options inside...that's it.

Because in the past/or currently that may not fit yours, mine, or anybody's touring style...that means nothing.

They aren't at fault for any of that...you have to make the choice to force them to change and give you more...

That is the FREE MARKET concept at work.

 

[jade1]

No just saying when I suggested (see above) the same thing LOL did (see above), different responses appeared.

 

[rteetz]

No just saying when I suggested (see above) the same thing LOL did (see above), different responses appeared.

We'll just have to agree to disagree or something because I'm still confused.

 

[jade1]

Jade seems to think that a Disney ticket includes a "comfortable touring experience"

No way, Juanita...

Never the case...that's ludicrous.

It's ludicrous? Never the case? I already have that, its amazing.

They sell an entry point to a fence that contains a posted list of options inside...that's it.

Because in the past/or currently that may not fit yours, mine, or anybody's touring style...that means nothing.

Currently fits mine, means a lot to me.

They aren't at fault for any of that...you have to make the choice to force them to change and give you more...

That is the FREE MARKET concept at work.

No change needed for me, you are the one who said you weren't going again and wanted changes-BUT STILL KEEP GOING..

 

[lockedoutlogic]

It's ludicrous? Never the case? I already have that, its amazing.



Currently fits mine, means a lot to me.



No change needed for me, you are the one who said you weren't going again and wanted changes-BUT STILL KEEP GOING..

I never said any of that...I said I have altered my habits/spending...which hurts their Bottomline. Simple cause and simple effect.

I think if the current situation lines up for you and you like it...that's great for you as a consumer.

But they don't do the things they do specifically to suite your needs...and if things change and you are unhappy...the defense/do no wrong pedestal you've put them on eliminates your right to complain.

So if the "perfect" fp+ system should cost you $50 a day in the future...

...guess you asked for it, huh?

 

[LAS2AMS]

You haven't given me any evidence to prove that wait times are stagnant or lower than they were in the past. At least I went and found the average wait times for attractions today. I'm not rejecting any evidence because you haven't given me any.

We don't know many people visited the Magic Kingdom on a given summer day 20 years ago compared to today (that information is proprietary) nor do we know how many hours the typical visitor spent in the park then compared to today (there's likely some guesstimates but no finite information from 20 years ago... but it's proprietary anyway).

However, we do know that the Magic Kingdom has seen substantial quarterly attendance gains and we also know that fewer passes sold today enable park hopping; therefore it's a reasonable assumption that the number of people in the park at any given time (during a typical summer day) is greater today than it was 20 years ago.

The Unofficial Guides printed in the mid-1990s guesstimate wait times for popular attractions during peak attendance dates. These guesstimates are consistent with the random pictures I took of the MK's wait boards. The wait times from today are less than or equal to the wait times of yesteryear BEFORE factoring in the FP and despite the surge in crowds. So I stand by my claims that efficiency / FP / increased capacity (as measured in rides & shows) have prevailed.

You can't ask for a "smoking gun" that you know doesn't exist (e.g. I could provide you finite information direct from Disney comparing wait times through the years) to the general public. I've worked within audit as a public accountant for 15 years -- people can't provide "smoking guns," so the next step is to perform rationality tests, so that's how my thinking works.

If you have any reasons to doubt or contradict my claim, I'd interested in hearing them and will be more than happy to admit I'm wrong if that's the case. Otherwise, you haven't provided anything.

 

[LAS2AMS]

Ride specific capacity doesn't necessarily mean the park as a whole has a capacity problem though.

They're heavily correlated.

As I mentioned earlier, the AK opened with oodles of capacity but few attractions, shows and entertainment. The AK wasn't a walk-through zoo and the headlining attraction (Kilimanjaro Safari) featured long waits & a story that grew stale, limiting its appeal to wait in a another long line to ride it again. Thus, the park featured only a half-day's entertainment for the typical guest (and played into its early woes).

You and several other posters have mentioned that you simply enjoying being in the parks. And there's nothing wrong with that, but you're outliers. The average family spends an average of several hundred dollars per day on their vacation -- they're looking for entertainment, not the warm-and-fuzzy feeling of being at Disney that the fanatics get. If this weren't true, Disney would have no reason or incentive for capital projects within its theme parks.

 

[rteetz]

We don't know many people visited the Magic Kingdom on a given summer day 20 years ago compared to today (that information is proprietary) nor do we know how many hours the typical visitor spent in the park then compared to today (there's likely some guesstimates but no finite information from 20 years ago... but it's proprietary anyway).

However, we do know that the Magic Kingdom has seen substantial quarterly attendance gains and we also know that fewer passes sold today enable park hopping; therefore it's a reasonable assumption that the number of people in the park at any given time (during a typical summer day) is greater today than it was 20 years ago.

The Unofficial Guides printed in the mid-1990s guesstimate wait times for popular attractions during peak attendance dates. These guesstimates are consistent with the random pictures I took of the MK's wait boards. The wait times from today are less than or equal to the wait times of yesteryear BEFORE factoring in the FP and despite the surge in crowds. So I stand by my claims that efficiency / FP / increased capacity (as measured in rides & shows) have prevailed.

You can't ask for a "smoking gun" that you know doesn't exist (e.g. I could provide you finite information direct from Disney comparing wait times through the years) to the general public. I've worked within audit as a public accountant for 15 years -- people can't provide "smoking guns," so the next step is to perform rationality tests, so that's how my thinking works.

If you have any reasons to doubt or contradict my claim, I'd interested in hearing them and will be more than happy to admit I'm wrong if that's the case. Otherwise, you haven't provided anything.

I know we don't have official numbers from Disney which I why it's hard say anything with extreme confidence.

I just really find it hard to believe that FP would increase efficiency at omnimover type attractions. I truly believe it doesn't. Look at haunted mansion for example. With FP wait times increased. Same with Pirates. Those attractions should be continually loading they should stop the standby line to let FP in then switch back. Newer rides built for FP are different but it is my belief that rides built Pre FP shouldn't have it because they were built with that in mind.

 

[rteetz]

They're heavily correlated.

As I mentioned earlier, the AK opened with oodles of capacity but few attractions, shows and entertainment. The AK wasn't a walk-through zoo and the headlining attraction (Kilimanjaro Safari) featured long waits & a story that grew stale, limiting its appeal to wait in a another long line to ride it again. Thus, the park featured only a half-day's entertainment for the typical guest (and played into its early woes).

You and several other posters have mentioned that you simply enjoying being in the parks. And there's nothing wrong with that, but you're outliers. The average family spends an average of several hundred dollars per day on their vacation -- they're looking for entertainment, not the warm-and-fuzzy feeling of being at Disney that the fanatics get. If this weren't true, Disney would have no reason or incentive for capital projects within its theme parks.

AK does have a good amount of entertainment though. You have rides, then you have shows, walk through animal treks, and more. The general guest just wants rides. Theme parks are not just about rides they have a bit of everything. Just because a park doesn't have a lot of rides doesn't mean it has a capacity problem. Rides, shows, restaurants and more all work together for capacity. You are simply just looking at ride capacity.