Dollar Exchange Rate Rumour - Bad News!

[crim1978]

Hi all.

I have just heard a rumour (and I stress that it is only a rumour) from someone pretty ihgh up in a high street bank.

He tells me that the big wigs in business exchange rates land are expecting the dollar rates to continue to drop untill next summer.

This poses me with a question - do I buy now (at what is already a fairly poor rate) or hang on and risk it getting worse and worse.

Just thought I'd pass on the info - use it as you will.

Crim

P.S. No promises that any of this is correct - just what I heard!!

 

[NJBlackBerry]

If anyone REALLY knows how exchange rates are going, they would not be talking and they would be buying dollars or pounds (or Euros) to make a lot of money.

Right now 1 GBP is worth $1.75. That is a strong pound. In March, they were even worse, at around $1.80 per pound.

Is that enough of a gap to warrant you buying dollars now and tying up your money?

Probably not.

 

[kristieuk]

I agree - no-one really knows. All anyone can do is make predictions, but there are so many factors that affect the rise and fall, they must be educated guesses more than anything else.

$1.75 is a good rate, but we're just not seeing it like that because it has been up to 1.90 in recent times. In the past month or so, it was nearer to 1.80, in the summer closer to 1.70 - and at that time, everyone was predicting a further fall, that never really came.

Unless you are planning to change thousands and thousands, a few cents change isn't going to make that much difference. Maybe change half now, and 'sit on the fence' with the other half so to speak.

We are in something of a similar position I should say - we have probably something near to £10,000 to pay in $ over the next year or so for various parts of our wedding, and I'm obsessing about the rate all the time, so I really do sympathise!

 

[Double k]

I don't think that $1.75 to £1 is a bad rate from a brits point of view.

 

[paulh]

we have been going for the last 15 years and have had rates as high as $2 -£1 and as low as $1.20 on arverage it has been $1.60 to pound over that time so the rates of $1.90-$1.75 over the last 9 months are quite good we still work out our budget to $1.60 so to ofset any spikes .winter months the pound is usaly beter against the dollar than in the summer months
Paulh

 

[Amyrlin]

No one knows, the US still has a budget defecit, however, if you look at the forward rates these are the rates that are predicted and contracts are based on (very simplifed explantaion) these indicate a 1 year rate that is still at 1.75. Now this is never correct, but it does give us an indication of the way the market is seeing the dollar. The US eocnomy is still weak, the deficit is not changing and the general opinion in the curecy market is not streghening for the dollar until the economy is sorted out.

My perosnal opnion would be to wait, but if you are worried to keep an eye o the rates and just buy some when they look good and add to it between jow and then.


You can look at http://specials.ft.com/stats/pdfs/spotpound/PSP121005.pdf

 

[kristieuk]

!!!!

 

[Amyrlin]

Sorry!

 

[patdavies]

If they think that the $ will drop, then you will get more $ per £.

As the $ drops in value, each £ will buy more of them. If they are correct in their prediction then it may well be worth waiting before rushing into to buying dollars.