Does this Poly Add-on Scenario Make Sense

[amypetecar]

Was thinking about adding two 25-point micro-contracts on. 50 points total.
Would use once per 3 years for a week in November studio.
Buy-in is $8000
Dues are $900 per trip (every 3 years).

Seems high.... until I checked the Disneyworld website and saw the same week in a standard view hotel room is $4000 for the week.

That means the payback is 3 trips or 9 years.
$12,000 for a hotel room over 3 trips vs. $10,700 in DVC principle and dues over 9 years.

PLUS I could probably sell my 25 point contracts and retain roughly 70% of my principle after fees, etc.

Does this logic makes sense? Is it unrealistic?
I welcome all opinions. Does this purchase make sense?

 

[Gillyrose779]

Is that rack rate though? Historically does Poly have discounts that time of year?

 

[disneynutz]

I don't see how a Disney controlled rack rate would come into play?

Bottom line is do you want to stay in a DVC studio at the Poly more than a cash room or another resort?

If that is what you really want and you are willing to pay the price, then you have no choice to buy there or try to book it at 7 months.

Next question, do you need it now or can you wait for resale prices?

Bill

 

[Gillyrose779]

He is trying to validate his purchase with numbers. I'm just trying to help him ensure his numbers are as accurate as possible.

Everyone validates their choices in their own way.

 

[disneynutz]

He is trying to validate his purchase with numbers. I'm just trying to help him ensure his numbers are as accurate as possible.

Everyone validates their choices in their own way.

Understood but they are Disney controlled numbers that you have no choice but to accept.

Bill

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

First, I'd not bother with 25 points contracts at the Poly. It's so point intensive and I do not think you will gain any more on a sale of a 25 point contracts vs a 50 so the only real reason would be for downsizing options.

Second - buying to go every 3 years has difficulties. If you definitely will only go every 3 years then that requires banking and borrowing every 3 years for your stays and if you don't have exactly the correct number of points you will have stranded points that will expire before your next visit. But if you buy the exact number of points you need then you run the risk of a point reallocation throwing off all your plans and then either having to get transfers from other owners, buying another 25 points contract minimum from DVC or waiting to book at 7 months and getting one time use points.

 

[jerseyduke]

Historically Disney does discount rooms at that time of year. Recently it has been 25-30%.


However, and this is the wild card, it seems that there has been less availability of discounted rooms in recent years. I have checked at times and found next to none. And now, 360 rooms are being taken out of the Poly cash inventory!

It might become hard to get discounted Poly rooms in the future, who knows.


Also agree with Kat. The idea of every 3 years is problematic. I personally understand the risks and would purchase with the idea of every other year. I would not purchase with the intent on using it every 3rd year. Way too many ways to lose points, have things go wrong, etc.

Also agree with kat about just getting a 50. unless it is a VERY minimal cost to do 2 25's I doubt its worth it. It may be worth 50$, 100 tops. I do not think you would get 4$ more per point on 25 than you would on 50, so it becomes a downsizing luxury, and you are not going to downsize from 50, are you?

Let me throw another idea out at you:

150 points, every 3 years. renting at 15$ per point is 2250$

That is a lot less than your 4k rack rate quote. So over 9 years, DVC buy in costs you 10,700. Rental costs you 6750.

Of course with a purchase you have an asset. But my guess is your break even point over rental is approaching 18 years. (This is why i think rental prices are too cheap) And with renting you do not run the risks with all the banking and borrowing you will do.

Plus, your way is every 3rd year. It can not be year 3, year 5, year 9, year 10, etc....it has to be 3 6 9 12....renting has more flexibility

ADDING MORE:

Also, I am not totally convinced 11 months is going to be needed at the Poly most of the time. Adding this into the mix, with all mentioned above I would not make your purchase. And The Poly is my favorite place. I would rent, or buy an SSR resale and role the dice at 7 months.

 

[quinnc19]

I have bought all my points resale and thought about waiting for a small Poly resale contract. VGF listings currently are in the $145 range; BLT small contracts are in the $110-115 range. Plus, small VGF/BLT contracts that are not stripped are very hard to come by, especially if one wants a particular UY. Poly is being offered at 160 but since I usually discount resale contracts by 10/per point for each previous year's point available (for which I did not pay dues), that is 150 net in my mind. Add in the reduced closing costs, convenience, and being able to book right away, I decided to buy direct. If I had to finance or was buying a larger contract, I would have waited.

I agree it may not be worth splitting into 25 point contracts and that it can be more difficult to make every 3rd year work.

 

[cmrdgrs]

IMO amypetecar what you just outlined is the entire Disney sales strategy for buying DVC. Prepaid vacations that (as I remember) Disney guides say you break even on in approximately 7 or 8 years. My memory might be fuzzy, but that's the sales pitch the way I remember it.

There are lots of calculators out there to help you with the dollars and cents. And, IMO, I don't think that the numbers you are putting together are completely out of whack.

My only concern would be securing a studio for your dates if you are wanting to travel at a high travel period. There is no data right now for how popular the resort will be, and the VGF is obviously a much smaller resort, but know going in that you may have to be flexible with your travel dates.

I also feel that if you have the cash upfront to buy at PVB, buying does make sense, but if you are financing much of the monetary value in the savings is most likely diminished or lost. But, sometimes buying is just about dollars and cents.

If you like PVB and feel you can afford it -- go for it! That's my advice. Add-on are always exciting and awesome. If I had the money I would add on at PVB, but I'm afraid for me that is not an option. If I decide I want to add-on I'll have to look at a resale contract down the road.

Good luck with your decision

 

[jerseyduke]

My only concern would be securing a studio for your dates if you are wanting to travel at a high travel period. There is no data right now for how popular the resort will be, and the VGF is obviously a much smaller resort, but know going in that you may have to be flexible with your travel dates.


Good luck with your decision

What does the size of the VGF have to do with a Poly purchase? 47 Studios (at most) vs 360?

 

[drusba]

I never recommend to anyone to buy to go only once every three years. In that situation your points need to be perfect and your trips need to be certain. For example, if you have 50 points and go the second year and fifth year after purchase, the only way those points work without having some left over that you will not be able to use is for the exact points needed for your trip to be 150 and you cannot get a studio in Nov at Poly for exactly 150 points for a week. For example, a standard studio in choice season is 130 a week. For a trip in that second use year after purchase, you bank 50 from year one, use 50 from year two, and borrow 30 from year three, and you will have 20 points left over in year 3, which cannot possibly be used in year 5, your next trip. Moroever, even if you have the exact points needed, if you have to change the timing of your trip one year to a different season, your right back in the same problem situation. And having the exact points needed every three years means you will have more trouble if DVD does a point reallocation affecting your season. If, for example, DVD raised the points needed by only 3, you could not buy a new contract to cover it since the minimum purchase is 25.

In other words, I personally believe it is a bad idea to purchase with a trip schedule that is only every three years.

 

[cmrdgrs]

What does the size of the VGF have to do with a Poly purchase? 47 Studios (at most) vs 360?

Just because the PVB has 360 studios vs VGF with 47 studios doesn't mean that getting a room there will be easy-peezy. I was pointing out to the OP that the resort is new, it has no booking history, it has no record for fixed deeds and it is a complete unknown. You and I can agree on that statement, can't we?

Based on the above, IMO, if I were buying at PVB and had a small contract I would consider that this is an unknown and I *might* have trouble getting dates I want during peak travel seasons.

IMO I don't think it hurts to look at worst case scenarios. Cheers!

 

[bisney]

Was thinking about adding two 25-point micro-contracts on. 50 points total.
Would use once per 3 years for a week in November studio.
Buy-in is $8000
Dues are $900 per trip (every 3 years).

Seems high.... until I checked the Disneyworld website and saw the same week in a standard view hotel room is $4000 for the week.

That means the payback is 3 trips or 9 years.
$12,000 for a hotel room over 3 trips vs. $10,700 in DVC principle and dues over 9 years.

PLUS I could probably sell my 25 point contracts and retain roughly 70% of my principle after fees, etc.

Does this logic makes sense? Is it unrealistic?
I welcome all opinions. Does this purchase make sense?

A few things to consider:
Think about the time value of money.

Consider your opportunity costs: are you cashing out an investment or reallocating money that could be invested into your purchase? Conversely, are you taking out a loan/financing from a line of credit (thus adding to your costs)?

Surely there will be incremental costs... will you be taking additional trips because of this purchase that you otherwise would not have been taking?

Would you consider renting out points from your other DVC contract to offset your Poly annual costs/prevent you from taking additional trips?

The list of factors to consider go on and on. I don't know what your personal situation is so it's hard to say definitively whether or not it makes "sense" for you. I will say that your initial analysis is too simplistic, does not factor in any inflation and that basing your purchase off of going every 3 years is risky. The Poly is rather expensive (especially the MFs) but it does sound like you will be using your Poly points exclusively for the Poly which IMO is the only way to use expensive points (otherwise you might as well just buy SSR). Best of luck!

 

[zavandor]

I never recommend to anyone to buy to go only once every three years. In that situation your points need to be perfect and your trips need to be certain. For example, if you have 50 points and go the second year and fifth year after purchase, the only way those points work without having some left over that you will not be able to use is for the exact points needed for your trip to be 150 and you cannot get a studio in Nov at Poly for exactly 150 points for a week. For example, a standard studio in choice season is 130 a week. For a trip in that second use year after purchase, you bank 50 from year one, use 50 from year two, and borrow 30 from year three, and you will have 20 points left over in year 3, which cannot possibly be used in year 5, your next trip. Moroever, even if you have the exact points needed, if you have to change the timing of your trip one year to a different season, your right back in the same problem situation. And having the exact points needed every three years means you will have more trouble if DVD does a point reallocation affecting your season. If, for example, DVD raised the points needed by only 3, you could not buy a new contract to cover it since the minimum purchase is 25.

In other words, I personally believe it is a bad idea to purchase with a trip schedule that is only every three years.

My first contract was 65 points at SSR, I intended to use them every three years. My idea was to use one time points to complete a reservation. 195 were a bit below the amount I intended to use.
However one time points can be purchased only at the 7 months mark. Paying a premium at a resort like PVB to get the 11 months advantage would be wasted money if you then have to wait the 7 months window to complete the reservation with One time points.
It may work, however, with SSR points.


(of course since the first purchase, I added on and go almost every year )