do you think Resale prices will go down or up when SSR presales begin?

[disneyberry]

been doing lots of browsing through old posts here, and the amount that resale prices have risen is crazy!

i haven't browsed that far back yet (i'm not even sure how far back DIS archives go), but can anyone briefly summarize what happened to the resale prices during the period from VWL opening through BCV opening?

i'm just trying to decide if it's a good idea to wait and see if Resales might drop in price. but worried that with SSR supposedly done and opening next summer, that retail DVC price is going to continue to skyrocket... causing resales to go up as well.
i wonder what will happen as DVC starts to sell SSR?

your thoughts, please. thank you.

 

[vernon]

Given the speed at which the last DVC resort sold out I think it likely that SSR will open up either higher than BCV, or initially at the same price with a view to raising the price ( it may even be "announced" that the price will be going up on a predetermined date) . As you correctly point out, if the price from Disney goes up , resales will go up as well. I find it interesting that it seems Disney is using it's right of first refusal on resales below $70 at the moment. It's possible they are soaking up the available inventory in order to create a demand to get SSR moving initially. If so, I would think that's a sound stratagy

 

[Dean]

I doubt the prices will come down soon but expect the resale prices to chold steady and not go up much more for a while. All DVC prices will eventually start to decline with factors like dues costs, is DVD still selling new points, length of time remaining on the RTU, economy, number of resales available and the like affecting the situation. IF SS is the last one, I'd expect resale prices to start to come down in about 5-7 years but slowly over time.

 

[disneyberry]

Originally posted by Dean
I doubt the prices will come down soon but expect the resale prices to chold steady and not go up much more for a while. All DVC prices will eventually start to decline with factors like dues costs, is DVD still selling new points, length of time remaining on the RTU, economy, number of resales available and the like affecting the situation. IF SS is the last one, I'd expect resale prices to start to come down in about 5-7 years but slowly over time.

really? so basically with the way Disney is currently manipulating Resale prices (around $72+ now it seems)... and SSR going on sale soon, etc., you think that Resale prices will not drop below avg $72 for the Orlando properties until 5-7 years later?

yikes! MB is looking pretty darn attractive now.

anyone else care to share their theory?

 

[CarolMN]

As long as Disney continues to support DVC prices by buying back "underpriced" resale contracts, prices will not go down. Since there appears to be a strong demand for points at the "sold out" resorts and since it's in Disney's best interest to be able to charge at least $84/point for SSR, I see no reason for prices of resale contracts to fall in the near future. Perhaps things will change after SSR is sold out, but until at least then, I think they will continue to remain about $10-$12 per point less than Disney's price. JMHO.

 

[Happy Birthday Cat]

If DVC makes the end date of SSR 2041 like all of the other resorts, I think it will only help keep up re-sale prices. If by some chance they extended the end year, that could negatively impact re-sales by making SSR a better buying opportunity for those looking beyond 2041.

HBC

 

[Tinkrbell]

I'd be willing to bet that prices will hold up longer than 5-7yrs, probably 10-15. That would still give the new buyer 25-30yrs of vacation use. WHY they don't give EACH building a 50 yr usage is for them to make more money, and people are Still Buying!

They will probably come out with more attractive MB packages, more benefits like ticket discounts and such, and any other thing to make buying easier for people. We don't know what property DVD is looking at developing now, and with each resort there is room for more revenue. I'm still hoping for the "Polynesian Villas"!

One thing we do know for sure is that Disney is the king of marketing and you can bet they will do what they can to get the consumer to part with their money!

 

[Dean]

The real question is if the current resale price is appropriate for market forces or over priced due to the DVC buy backs and ROFR. I say the latter is currently the case and as soon as DVC stops buying, you will see an almost immediate drop then see prices level off again then slowly decline.

Assuming a few variables, here's what I'd suspect will happen based on todays dollars. Assuming SS is the last resort and it sells out in 3-4 years, DVC will likely stop buying back or even fooling with the ROFR at least by or before the last projected year. So assuming the retail price goes up to $90-94 pp, one might see the resale prices drift up a little higher, maybe $75 pp. Once DVC is not longer buying back, those trying to sell will be competing with each other without the competition from DVC. If that were to happen right now, I"d expect the resale price pp to drop back to where it was a year or so ago, around $58-62 pp. This would likely take 6 months or so to happen. Then when new sales stop, few people who are potential buyers but not already involved with DVC will know or care. The idea that the demand will stay where it is without the kiosks and hype is not realistic. The resales prices will be more variable than they are now with some going for less than $50, possibly as low as $40 pp, but the average will slowly drift down. In 15 years (25 remaining) assuming a max resale price of $75 pp and no buy back or new sales past SS, I'd expect prices to be below $50 pp on an average with some like VB and HH as low as $40 pp routinely.

I know many will disagree but the realities in timeshares suggest otherwise and DVC is still just a timeshare, albeit a nice one.

 

[RobDoc]

I agree with Dean's assessment.

There are MANY non-DVC timeshares available right now at $500-$2000 for weeks that originally sold for $10,000-$20,000 and many more available in the $2000-$5000 range (if they can be sold at all).

There are also many where the owners simply stop paying the maintenance fees and the resort itself ends up reclaiming the property. (These are often the ones available for $500-$2000). The owner's association needs the maintenance fees to run the facility and has no easy means to provide a sales staff to profit from the sale- so they offer them for low amounts just to start getting the operating fees again.

Once DVC stops price supports thru ROFR, I expect to see resale prices drop quickly as sellers compete for the available buyers.

Stay Tuned!

 

[Tjkane28]

The last two posts are probably among the most intelligent and "thought-full" posts I've read in some time.

A very observant perspective on the business of DVC.

 

[disneyberry]

does this mean that, if you are planning on purchasing a DVC resale in the next year or so, waiting would not be beneficial, as the prices will just keep going up?

for instance, according to reports on this board, people back in January were losing resales to Disney's ROFR at around $66-$68.
and then, in early February, some of the people who made offers near $70 were losing resales to ROFR.

the "floor" is rising very quickly! will it keep going up??

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

Disney will probably keep the floor within shouting distance of a direct purchase until such time as that situation is no longer helpful to them. For example...resales were recently in low 60's with direct purchase from Disney at $84. Disney could get away with letting that happen because they were selling BCV. When I made my purchase resales were just a couple of dollars below where Disney has forced the floor to be right now...for BWV anyway...making it a wash whether I went resale or I went with Disney...and with Disney I could get the exact number of points I wanted. Resale prices have dropped back in the last year or so to a level where I would have bought resale over direct if the prices had been available to me.

In selling SSRV Disney won't have a product that is quite as hot as BCV (they probably should have put a resort smack in between the Grand Floridian and the Polynesian...call it the Grand Polynesian...tied to the facilities of the Polynesian rather than the Grand Floridian rather than building SSRV). So I think Disney may keep the resale market a touch higher for a little while because SSRV isn't quite as compelling as BCV.

Or they could just be scarfing up on site inventory (there is an awful lot of Vero Beach left on the resale sheets). If they build up points they can sell before BCV sells out they will be able to offer guests something to buy while waiting for SSRV. All they have to do is raise the current price a little ($86? $88) and they clear a small profit ($14, $16, $18 per point minus a small transaction cost). Enough to keep paying the salaries of the DVC CM's.

 

[littlestar]

While we were at Disney a few weeks ago, one of the DVC guides told us he thought Saratoga was going to have a different ending date. He also said he had heard there would be extensions offered for existing members on their home resorts. He didn't know this for a fact, but he did say he had heard this as a possibility. It will be interesting to see if any of this comes true.

 

[tiberius]

Originally posted by littlestar
While we were at Disney a few weeks ago, one of the DVC guides told us he thought Saratoga was going to have a different ending date. He also said he had heard there would be extensions offered for existing members on their home resorts. He didn't know this for a fact, but he did say he had heard this as a possibility. It will be interesting to see if any of this comes true.

I have thought for some time that having all resorts end at the same time would lead to an eventual problem with an overabundance of units to sell after the end date. It makes sense to me that they will attempt to address this prior to that point.