Do you think resale prices will continue to rise?

[KSR0330]

I want to purchase a resale BWV contact and was hoping to wait until late summer, but I'm worried the prices will continue to rise. What are everyone's thoughts on the future of resale prices? Will they continue going up, level off or start going down?

 

[RamblinWreck]

I think the only way you see them do anything other than going up is if we experience something that seriously hurts the economy or the population at large's ability to purchase these contracts.

 

[jkips]

I agree that over a long enough timeframe the trend is up but if you are talking about buying now vs 4 to 6 months from now I think it's mostly a coin flip. One of the DVC resale sites had a blog a while back that mentioned how many more buyers there are in the early part of the year relative to later in the year. Their rationale for it was that that's when everyone starts to plan their summer vacations and focusing more on things like DVC. So there is some seasonality to it where waiting might make sense. That would be similar to home buying. General rule of thumb is you want to buy your home in the late fall or winter and sell it in the spring and summer.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Resale will be on the decline. As it stands now there are more resale contracts on the market.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Inflation is almost 10 percent…. If i were going to bet I would say you are going to see everything raise in the next 6 to 9 months…. Then the recession will hit….

 

[RamblinWreck]

Resale will be on the decline. As it stands now there are more resale contracts on the market.

If the resale market were a free market, then I would agree with you.

But the resale prices can only fall as far as Disney is willing to let them fall.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Completely agree, Disney will grab anything that is too cheap, and sell it as direct, to keep the “value” from fall below a preset number

 

[KSR0330]

Completely agree, Disney will grab anything that is too cheap, and sell it as direct, to keep the “value” from fall below a preset number

This is my concern. I was hoping since BWV is a 2042 it wouldn't rise as much as it is, but that's clearly not the case.

 

[RKS03]

Disney is playing the long game by keeping a floor on resale. For me atleast, after having bought resale previously the floor gave me comfort to buy VGF direct in case I wanted to sell down the road. I know some buy direct because they don’t know about resale but I bet a lot also do buy direct who know about resale. If resale was half or less than half the price of direct Disney would have a huge value proposition problem on their hands trying to sell direct.

 

[hglenn]

At some point the 2042 contracts will not be appealing to buyers regardless of how great the location is. However, to some (like me) 20 years is still a way off and that's where we want to stay so for now, it's "worth it" to us now. Disney will have to do something with those resorts. I doubt they will just let them all expire and start at square one. There will have to be some extension or new association put in place and I would think they will offer existing members a great offer to buy that new association. Granted, it may not be dirt cheap, but it could be a shiny new 50 year contract for a great price at some of the best locations on WDW property. Until then, anyone buying a 2042 contract knows it's risky and not the best economic value but if it checks the boxes that are important to them, then the value will remain... IMO, aside from outside influences, I think it's still got a solid 5 years left at a decent rate..... But I'm no economist...

 

[hglenn]

Disney is playing the long game by keeping a floor on resale. For me Atleast, after having bought resale previously the floor gave me comfort to buy VGF direct in case I wanted to sell down the road. I know some buy direct because they don’t know about resale but I bet a lot also do buy direct who know about resale. If resale was say half or less than half the price of direct Disney would have a huge value proposition problem on their hands trying to sell direct.

Agree... the only reason we are doing resale is because the spread between direct and resale on BWV is too big.... However, if ROFR continues to take longer and longer, we'll just go direct... Just what they want....

 

[RKS03]

Agree... the only reason we are doing resale is because the spread between direct and resale on BWV is too big.... However, if ROFR continues to take longer and longer, we'll just go direct... Just what they want....

Yeah I wouldn’t personally buy direct for many resorts given the high asking price. I believe BWV is more direct than VGF currently. Resale is still a very attractive option for most properties. But yeah, ROFR is probably an intentionally painful process to discourage resale.

 

[Brian Noble]

I would not try to time the market, but rather buy when I was ready to buy. I would also not let the ROFR timeline dissuade me from saving several thousand dollars on my purchase.

 

[redboat45]

If you're planning on buying this summer I would think prices would stay about the same.

 

[hglenn]

I would not try to time the market, but rather buy when I was ready to buy. I would also not let the ROFR timeline dissuade me from saving several thousand dollars on my purchase.

If you already have points and are using them, then I agree... however, we have two trips to Disney planned this summer and will likely end up paying cash because the ROFR timeline is so long... so the savings isn't always what it looks on paper....

 

[Brian Noble]

Unless you lose points in the delay compared to a direct purchase, the overall savings are the same if you use the points for DVC stays. If you take other stays that are not covered by the points--either before you get them or in the midst of owning them but after your current allocation is exhausted---it doesn't matter.

 

[hglenn]

Unless you lose points in the delay compared to a direct purchase, the overall savings are the same if you use the points for DVC stays.

Yes…. That’s what I was referring to…

 

[Brian Noble]

But paying cash for those two trips doesn't matter if the total points you have are the same in e.g. a BWV direct vs. BWV resale purchase, and you use those points for DVC stays. Either those two first trips are "extra" or some other trip(s) is (are) extra.

 

[Sandisw]

But paying cash for those two trips doesn't matter if the total points you have are the same in e.g. a BWV direct vs. BWV resale purchase, and you use those points for DVC stays. Either those two first trips are "extra" or some other trip(s) is (are) extra.

Except if you can use points and put the money toward the purchase, it does help.

If it will cost me $4K for a cash rooms that can now be used for the purchase, you do save now vs, later.

 

[OKW Lover]

I believe resale prices will continue to rise as long as direct prices from DVC continues to rise.