Distressed point poll

[PirateBrigade]

(fist bump & high five to the mod crew here, I'm rephrasing my thread about distressed point value)

Poll/question: How much are < 2 week notice distressed points (on a confirmed reservation) worth to you?

Topic came up today with a co-worker. If a reliable stranger came up to you and offered a week at a DVC resort you love, how much would you be willing to pay, given all the challenges of traveling last minute?

 

[Jgc014]

Me personally? Probably about $0 as that is just not how I really travel right now. If I was local though, my answer would be different. Honestly for the right reservation probably $16+

 

[Lumpy1106]

2 week notice? Let's face it, the owner is either going to sell them to you at whatever he can get or he will lose them and get nothing. Considering I would also have to figure out air travel etc. on short notice, I would think offering to cover the dues for the current use year would be more than fair (and a pretty good deal for everyone).

 

[PirateBrigade]

I think if I were local to the resort, I would probably not even buy that long of a period of time to begin with (so really $0). My stay local splurges usually end up being 1-2 nights, max.

I'm in CA, so aside from my home resort VGC, everything is a > 5hr flight away. For those, I'd have to say $8-$10/point. These flights are like, $1000 pp right now, I'd need a serious discount to be swayed.

 

[LAX]

IMHO, the points are only worth whatever people are willing to pay for. Like someone already mentioned, it would be $0 to me because I can't make it to either park on 2 weeks notice (can't get time off on such short notice). For someone with lots of flexibility, they may be willing to pay $10 per point.

LAX

 

[sethschroeder]

given all the challenges of traveling last minute?

What challenges?

Book a flight and go?

Am I missing something? I have booked a cruise just like 5 days out and that required testing, forms, submitting data to be reviewed.

The only challenge is if you can't get off work I guess?

 

[sethschroeder]

2 week notice? Let's face it, the owner is either going to sell them to you at whatever he can get or he will lose them and get nothing. Considering I would also have to figure out air travel etc. on short notice, I would think offering to cover the dues for the current use year would be more than fair (and a pretty good deal for everyone).

Cancel and have points in holding can rent them out for SSR, OKW, AKV rentals.

 

[MMSM]

$8 to $10

 

[Scalemaster34]

What challenges?

Book a flight and go?

Am I missing something? I have booked a cruise just like 5 days out and that required testing, forms, submitting data to be reviewed.

The only challenge is if you can't get off work I guess?

Can you get Park Pass at two weeks? (most times yes, but not always) What ADR dining options are there at two weeks?

Talk of Disney adjusting Park Passes to include Park Hopping reservations.... I expect going last minute is only become more of a challenge.

 

[sethschroeder]

Can you get Park Pass at two weeks? (most times yes, but not always) What ADR dining options are there at two weeks?

Talk of Disney adjusting Park Passes to include Park Hopping reservations.... I expect going last minute is only become more of a challenge.

You can get times for the week of 4th of July with a few limitations. With Dining you can get most places as well last minute or via waitlist as well.

No 1st time Disney goer is doing a trip 2 weeks out but for people who have been before its not an issue doing all of that.

Next week randomly check:
Le Cellier - can get (first date tried)
California Grill - can get (first date tired different than Le Cellier)
Sci Fi - nothing (but I suspect I could get it a day out as people cancel before the 24 hr cancellation window)

So you might be hit or miss but wait list and monitoring should get a variety of restaurant options including any quick service (which there are tons of options).

 

[PirateBrigade]

What challenges?

Book a flight and go?

Am I missing something? I have booked a cruise just like 5 days out and that required testing, forms, submitting data to be reviewed.

The only challenge is if you can't get off work I guess?

Yeah, sorry was vague, but a) work time off, b) increased costs with last-ish minute tickets, c) rental cars continue to be tricky.

But with unlimited time, unlimited money, and Uber Black... I'd be on this trip in no-time!

TBF, the above thread isn't a hypothetical, it was a real scenario (had to remove details/specifics due to forum rules). Magically, she had the entire week off already, and their last minute flights to their destination (> 5hr flight) dropped from $1k to $600 (family of 4), and the owner accepted their offer that I had suggested thanks to this thread. There's still magic in the world!

 

[PirateBrigade]

Can you get Park Pass at two weeks? (most times yes, but not always) What ADR dining options are there at two weeks?

Talk of Disney adjusting Park Passes to include Park Hopping reservations.... I expect going last minute is only become more of a challenge.

I can't speak for WDW, but for DLR, on-site guests get a separate reservation bucket that is functionally unlimited. Dining reservations are another issue, but I've had good luck with folks who did speculative bookings cancelling before the 48 hour (or was it 24? can't recall) deadline.

 

[pianomanzano]

I think you’re asking the wrong crowd, most here are owners who plan well in advance and are unlikely to rent points. Just based on the responses for far, people are factoring in TS dining reservations into their decision making, whereas the average person would see an opportunity to rent a cheap room at their dream resort. They’ll make it work somehow even if it meant eating Casey’s corner every meal.

If you take a look at the rental groups on FB, distressed points typically get rented out for $12/pt or more. I rented out a confirmed reservation 3 weeks out for $17/pt back in January.

 

[Noodlez]

If we moved to within driving distance of the resorts and were both retired then I would possibly pay a few dollars, but definitely not more than I pay for annual dues.

In reality, they are worth nothing to me. The additional cost of a flight at this short notice and the difficulty in getting time off work and changing other plans means I would turn it down right now if it were free.

You ask how much it's worth to me, but I guess what you want to know is how much it's worth to you or someone else? Are 'you' offering the points or paying for them? If I were not an owner, and I had those two weeks free, and I could get there easily, and I had a desire to spend those two weeks at the resort that is booked, I would probably offer the person $6-$8 so that they didn't lose out too much.

 

[Scalemaster34]

Disney is in high demand and rented points are a great value... an economic downturn could flood the market with canceled confirmed reservations needing to be liquidated. And too Disney makes changes all the time in how they operate and that too can values of rented points in the future.

So in the end it comes down to what are the worth to the market.... at time you want to try and sell them. So seeing what other are getting for these is a better way to determine the value, now.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

$6-$8. If I was available to go to WDW (probably yes since I'm retired and can drive there) and if there were park reservations available, I think it would be fair to reimburse the owner for MF.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Since I think you're looking sincerity, I wouldn't pay anything for them, but I voted '6-8' because I think that's reasonable. Here's my logic.

I think that it's a good thing that what I paid for my points makes money on the resale market, because my points (to me) are worth just about what my dues cost me per year relative to the 'real' level of accommodations at WDW. Our deluxe hotels are (for the most part), 3 star hotels at best if we're being honest with each other relative to the overall hotel market, with a spotted 4 maybe here and there. If you take my dues and multiply it times the points per night, that's just about what that room would cost me anywhere else, give or take just a few dollars.

Just being brutally honest.

Would I take that for them? Of course not, but I have enough to serve my needs (maybe not my obsessions but that's an entirely different discussion). I just can't see (as a member) renting points for any price that someone would actually take.

 

[PirateBrigade]

Thank you all for the great replies. Just to clarify, this is purely hypothetical based on a distressed facebook post I saw last month. I’m not involved in any distressed point transactions at the moment (buying or selling).

Since it’s all done and in the past (and not tied to a current offer), I will make the reveal as a historical data point (if this isn’t allowed, mods please DM me and I’ll delete, I figure it’s historical/details removed/not an active listing and OK) — it was a ~200 point AUL reservation with two weeks notice. Owner was asking for $18/pt, coworker bid $12/pt, and the offer was accepted within 24hrs.

Lucky for her, she had the time blocked off, and managed to find RT flights to Hawaii from the west coast for < $600 RT for her family of 4.

I’m only slightly jealous!

 

[LAX]

Thank you all for the great replies. Just to clarify, this is purely hypothetical based on a distressed facebook post I saw last month. I’m not involved in any distressed point transactions at the moment (buying or selling).

Since it’s all done and in the past (and not tied to a current offer), I will make the reveal as a historical data point (if this isn’t allowed, mods please DM me and I’ll delete, I figure it’s historical/details removed/not an active listing and OK) — it was a ~200 point AUL reservation with two weeks notice. Owner was asking for $18/pt, coworker bid $12/pt, and the offer was accepted within 24hrs.

Lucky for her, she had the time blocked off, and managed to find RT flights to Hawaii from the west coast for < $600 RT for her family of 4.

I’m only slightly jealous!

2 weeks notice and all the way in Hawaii? The owner probably would have accepted $10/pt.

LAX