Disney's movie schedule, what are your thoughts

Bob O

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DEALING FOR DISNEY
Film Unit Caught in Crossfire
With support for Eisner eroding, 'The Alamo' and other big-budget bets face close scrutiny.
By Claudia Eller
Times Staff Writer

March 2, 2004

Disney hasn't forgotten "The Alamo" — and neither has Wall Street.

While corporate directors and Chairman Michael Eisner deal with a building shareholder siege, Walt Disney Co.'s film unit — a prime contributor to earnings lately — is bracing for an uncertain spring because of some high-risk bets, including the once-delayed Texas epic.

In coming weeks, the Burbank company is set to release not only its $100-million production of "The Alamo" but also next Friday's $78-million adventure film, "Hidalgo." Both pictures were bumped out of last year's lineup because they weren't ready for audiences.

A week before the April 9 premiere of "The Alamo," moreover, Disney plans to open "Home on the Range," a traditionally-animated, 2-D comedy that cost about $110 million to produce — a big roll of the dice, given today's strong audience preference for cutting-edge computer-generated cartoons.

Those and other spring pictures already are getting close scrutiny from investors, who are looking for any sign of weakness in a film operation that is coming off a record run at the box office.

"It was the studio that blew away everybody's first-quarter estimates," Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. media analyst Tom Wolzein said. "So now, what's next? Is it sustainable? That's basically what the market is asking."

An ill-timed stumble by the studio could undercut Eisner's argument that Disney has put its worst days behind and is poised for a period of steady growth.

On Monday, the Florida State Board of Administration, the fourth-largest U.S. pension fund, joined a dozen other large investors in promising to withhold their votes for Eisner's reelection to the Disney board at Wednesday's annual meeting in Philadelphia. At a meeting scheduled tonight in Philadelphia, the board is expected to plot its strategy for responding to the growing "no" vote.

In a pair of dueling letters, meanwhile, Disney's directors and dissident shareholders gave starkly different views of the company's future.

Former board members Roy Disney and Stanley Gold urged shareholders to use their vote to "send an unmistakable message that it is time for a change in the senior management and board of the Walt Disney Co. Tell the board you believe it is time to replace Michael Eisner."

The directors' letter, however, told shareholders their support "is important to keep the momentum of the Walt Disney Company going." By voting for the current board, it added, investors can ensure that Disney is not distracted from "realizing the full potential of our creative strength and enhancing shareholder value."

Despite the public crossfire, studio chairman Dick Cook and his first lieutenant, production chief Nina Jacobson, insisted in a joint interview that the demands to sustain success were no greater than usual.

"The pressure is there regardless of what's happening," said Cook, who will be making a presentation at the crucial shareholders meeting, where a large anti-Eisner vote would fuel calls for an end to the chairman's 20-year reign.

While acknowledging that Wall Street attention has "some impact," Jacobson agreed that being under the microscope doesn't add much to the usual jitters.

"We bite our nails on every picture," Jacobson said. "We did it last year, we're doing it now and we'll do it next year — that's the nature of the business."

Disney strategy has been to balance risk by surrounding high-cost films like last year's "Pirates of the Caribbean," a smash hit, with lower-cost family pictures such as "Freaky Friday" and "Bringing Down the House," which were also nicely profitable.

This year, however, the managers found themselves with a more expensive mix. That's largely because the bigger films, according to the executives, happened to clump together.

Big-budget releases lined up for later in the year include producer Jerry Bruckheimer's summer action-adventure film "King Arthur," which cost around $120 million and "National Treasure," a $100-million picture starring Nicolas Cage as a modern-day treasure hunter. The schedule also includes a less expensive thriller from "The Sixth Sense" director M. Night Shyamalan and a modestly budgeted Bill Murray comedy at Christmas, along with Pixar's next computer-animated comedy, "The Incredibles."

Although the relatively heavy roster could lead to another record year, some observers are wary of high costs and the potential for flops.

"It would be difficult to expect that the fiscal 2004 theatrical releases would exceed the fiscal 2003 releases" in terms of box-office performance, said media analyst Jeffrey Logsdon of Harris Nesbitt Gerard.

"Finding Nemo," produced by Pixar, and "Pirates," a Disney movie produced by Bruckheimer, each amassed more than $300 million of ticket sales in U.S. theaters alone.

Strong DVD and home video revenue from both pictures gave a boost to the film unit in the fiscal first quarter, which ended Dec. 31. According to Logsdon, the studio accounted for about 36%, or $458 million, of Disney's $1.27 billion in operating income in the period — putting sizzle on results that were announced by Eisner at a Florida analysts' meeting on the very day Comcast Corp. made its unsolicited takeover bid for the company.

For the next several months, however, executives will be all nerves.

"Hidalgo," Disney's next release, was originally to open last October but was held for five months, according to Jacobson, because the film and its marketing campaign still needed more work.

Now, the picture — which stars Viggo Mortensen as an outcast American cowboy who races his horse in the Arabian desert — will face unexpectedly stiff competition from Mel Gibson's controversial drama "The Passion of the Christ," which grossed nearly $120 million in its first five days. The same weekend, Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. is also opening its action comedy "Starsky & Hutch," starring Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson.

April brings the back-to-back openings of "Home on the Range" and "The Alamo."

The latter was abruptly pulled from a Christmas Day slot after a test audience in Pasadena proved less than completely receptive. Director John Lee Hancock was given months to retool the picture, even though Disney had already begun to promote the Dec. 25 opening with billboards and a DVD trailer attached to the front cover of the trade paper Daily Variety, at a cost of about $130,000, according to sources.

Cook and Jacobson took exception to any suggestion that "Alamo" had been a troubled film in need of fixing.

"It needed more time," Jacobson said. "It's a very big movie, there are a lot of characters, a lot of story lines and a lot of choices."

The final version puts added emphasis on the showdown at the Alamo, where fewer than 200 Texas rebels were crushed by the 5,000-man Mexican army in 1836, while downplaying the bloody retribution battle at San Jacinto weeks later.

In mid-June, Disney will release another question mark: "Around the World in 80 Days." The ambitious, high-cost remake was financed by billionaire Philip Anschutz. But the studio will spend tens of millions to push it during a summer box-office derby that includes competitors such as "Shrek 2" from DreamWorks, "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" from Warner Bros. and "Spider-Man 2" from Sony Corp.'s Sony Pictures Entertainment.

Sources said Disney paid about $20 million for the North American distribution rights to "Around the World" — less than a third of the usual cost for such rights to a film with a budget over $110 million. Marketing costs, however, will reach at least $40 million, adding to the pressure in a season that already demands heavy spending on homegrown projects.

As for "Home on the Range," Disney animation chief David Stainton said he was not concerned about audience drift toward computer animation of the sort perfected by Pixar, which touched off a firestorm by declaring its intention several weeks ago to divorce Disney when its current partnership expires.

"The most important factors to an audience are great story and great characters," Stainton said. " 'Home on the Range' is fresh, funny and completely unpretentious."

On Monday, Disney managers were eager to point forward, toward a picture that won't be ready until faraway Christmas 2005.

In a high-profile announcement, the studio said it had entered a partnership with Anschutz's Walden Media to co-finance and distribute a live-action adaptation of C.S. Lewis' fantasy classic, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe."

The deal for that and future pictures based on Lewis' novels came on the heels of an 11-Oscar sweep by Time Warner's New Line Cinema for its "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King." It promised to give Disney something it has sorely lacked: a big, live-action movie franchise to help spark new merchandising lines and theme-park attractions.

"This is something that could be a big deal," Cook said. "It's a property that will permeate the whole company."

If you want other stories on this topic, search the Archives at latimes.com/archives.
Click here for article licensing and reprint options

Copyright 2004 Los Angeles Times

Interesting article, what are your feelings for the disney moives this year???
Looks to me to that disney is spending alot of money on moives that cry out box office bomb with few sure fire hits on tap other than a Pixar movie which will make disney look good, though they have nothing do it with its creation.
 
I agree, Disney appears to be reeling. Hidalgo looks good, so does Home on the Range, but March/April is not a great time at the box office, so who knows how well they will do. $110 Million for Home on the Range sounds like a lot of money. I have also heard a lot that the Alamo looks really bad, so who know if it can make money back.

But one of the things I find wierd is Mickey's Three Musketeers and Mickey's Twice Upon a Christmas. Both of these movies look really cute, and look like potential moneymakes, so WHY are the direct to video? I would love to see 3 Musketeers in a theater, and my kids would too.

At least they are producing decent stuff for direct to video. I have stopped buying them because the last few have been so bad.
 
I will probaly go to see Hidalgo, and I am looking forward to Home on the Range...the promo look pretty cute. I doubt I will see the Alamo, not because I think it will be a bad movie, but because I live about 40 miles from the real Alamo, and I have seen/heard the story time and time and time again. I think I'd also like to see King Arthur.

As far as competitoin, I really haven't been drawn into wanting to see Starsky & Hutch...usually a pretty good TV show doesn't tranfer well into the big screen, and this doesn't look like an exception to the rule.
 

I think Home on the Range will do OK... Brother Bear type box office returns, unless it gets some really strong word of mouth - it could become another Lilo & Stitch - I don't think it will bomb, and it will definately do well on DVD.

Hidalgo could go either way - it could hi 78 mil at the BO, but that wouldn't cover distribution and marketing costs. Foreign markets should put this one in the black.

I don't see the Alamo doing that well. I think it's international appeal is fairly limited, I also don't see the subject being that popular here in the US. The whole "Historical Catastrophe" genre is getting a bit thin now, isn't it? Titanic, PEarl Harbor, The Alamo, That Time Sizzler Ran Out of French Fries....

:-D

The Incredibles will do, well, Incredibly!
 
If Home on the Range cost 110 million to make and then you add in the pr costs(usually half of the productions costs according to boxofficemojo.com), and then say it will make Big Brother numbers then it will be another money losing movie for disney.
 
I think obviuosly their playing it safe with releasing 3 muskateers straight to video, because it bombs it would be a big blow to their icon mickey mouse. so playing it safe on direct to video theres no risk.

and i would like to say again Ladykillers will BOMB
 
Originally posted by Razor Roman The Incredibles will do, well, Incredibly!
I don't know. I've seen "The Incredibles," and it's fun, but it's no "Nemo." In fact, it's not even "A Bug's Life." I'll be very interested to see how it fares, since it has a totally different look and feel from the previous Pixar films.

:earsboy:
 
I have total faith in Brad Bird to deliver a great movie. (And don't disrespect Bug's Life.. it's probably my favorite Pixar movie!)

If The Incredibles is half as good as Bird's word on Iron Giant and half as funny as his work on The Simpsons, we're still looking at a pretty darn good movie!
 
I fear that Disney os going to whiff on all three of its big spring realeases. Hidalgo and Alamo both look boring. and as for "Home on the Range"... did somebody say $110 million!!??!!. I hope this doesn't sound disrespectful of the work done on it, but it looks very cheap. The good news is the stuff that lies ahead Chronicles of Narnia...winner Incredibles...winner King Arthur...winner

I just hope all the Wall Street suits hold on tight because this spring is really going to be wretched
 
I'm looking forward to Hidalgo and The Incredibles but I don't know about the rest. The Alamo story is incredibly interesting but I don't have faith in this movie and Around the World in 80 Days looks like a bust to me. I hope that King Arthur is good because the story is great and a good movie is really needed IMO.
 
Originally posted by Zippa D Doodah
I hope this doesn't sound disrespectful of the work done on it, but it looks very cheap.
It "looks very cheap" because it's done in a style that's more reminiscent of "Sleeping Beauty" than "Finding Nemo." That's one of the hurdles it will have to pass -- audiences that are used to the look of Nemo, Shrek, and even Treasure Planet. Hopefully, people will realize that the style of animation used is appropriate for the story behind it. And then, hopefully, the story will also be good!

:earsboy:
 
As for the Chronicles of Narnia, unless disney hires someone like Bruckhiemer to make the moive i doubt they will do it justice.
Does anyone think disney would have done LOTR right????
 
Marketing for Home on the Range won't be 50% of the 110 million to make the money. 50% is only applicable when the costs are low, say 60 million or less.

Home on the Range will probably end up making money. It will do about 85 mil US, 125 mil overseas, sell tons of VHS and DVD and some plush toys here and there.

It is going to be hard for Disney to top last year - just like it was impossible for Sony to top 2002.


Here are the box office totals as of a couple of days ago (from Boxoffice Mojo). Disney is 4th and they haven't had but Miracle, Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen and Teacher's Pet. They'll add to the total's this weekend as Miracle and Drama Queen are still doing OK and they open Hidalgo. They won't top Sony or New Market anytime soon - but New Line is fair game as LOTR is on the end of it's run.

1 Sony $263.9 (50 First Dates)
2 New Line $162.8 (LOTR: ROTK)
3 Newmarket $151.8 (Passion of the Christ)
4 Disney $120.9 (Miracle)

Sony, likely, will be#1 again this year, but Disney should be #2.
 
Actually, the three studios in front of Disney have 3, 2 and 1 films released. But the point still rings true... its too early to make any real judgements.

I agree that The Incredibles is riskier than Nemo. I'll definitely see it, since Pixar has earned my trust. They've earned the benefit of the doubt.

Still there's some irony in the fact that Disney needs a good performance out of The Incredibles to help save Eisner's job (if he lasts that long), yet one of the reasons his job is in jeopardy is the Pixar situation.

On Home on the Range, the animation reminds me more of the old Warner Bros cartoons, like The Road Runner. I think it is a big risk, especially if the $110 million figure is accurate.

Didn't L&S have a budget of something like $80 million?


I don't know, with movies, its always hard to guess what the public will think, but matching last year's performance will be tough for Disney.
 
Whats much more important than the studio's overall ranking is how profitable are their movies.
Disney is no 4 so far but have done it on more movies produced with smaller box office to show for it, and with more movies it also means more costs for production/pr expenses. \
As for Home on the Range pr costs, i bet when all numbers are factored in it will be half/production, you cant have your kids watch tv without already seeing a ton of adds for it.
And $84 per screen for Drama queen is good????
 
Originally posted by WDSearcher
It "looks very cheap" because it's done in a style that's more reminiscent of "Sleeping Beauty" than "Finding Nemo."

Wait a sec..."Sleeping Beauty" looks cheap? My gosh, it's probably the most elaborately animated movie ever!
 
Originally posted by Bob O
As for the Chronicles of Narnia, unless disney hires someone like Bruckhiemer to make the moive i doubt they will do it justice.

Bruckheimer for Narnia!!?? Ugh. Perish the thought.
 
I wouldnt say bruckeimer is a perfect choice, but i dont trust disney to do anything creative and they need someone from outside the company, like Pixar has done in animation and bruckheimer has done in films like POTC.
 
Originally posted by WDSearcher
It "looks very cheap" because it's done in a style that's more reminiscent of "Sleeping Beauty" than "Finding Nemo." That's one of the hurdles it will have to pass -- audiences that are used to the look of Nemo, Shrek, and even Treasure Planet. Hopefully, people will realize that the style of animation used is appropriate for the story behind it. And then, hopefully, the story will also be good!

:earsboy:

I appreciate the older animation style. That's what I grew up on. Even younger kids (well, mine any way) like 2-D stuff like Warner Bro. cartoons etc. But specifically about "Home on the Range", the commercials and theatrical previews I have seen have been less than inspiring. I think a big part of what colors my opinion (and my kids) is that Disney's latest theatrical 2-D releases have been so mediocre. Brother Bear was a disappointment (more of a story problem than an animation problem IMHO); stuff like Jungle Book II, Peter Pan:RtNL, and Treasure Planet were just dismal. Lilo and Stitch was the lone worthwhile movie of that type in I don't know how long.
I think the nadir was JB II. I sat there in the theater with my kids thinking how little creative effort there was on screen. The reason Pixar releases and Shrek work for me is story and depth of character. The animation style is a nice hook, but by no means is that what sells me on the movie.
"Home on the Range" IMHO looks cheap. I just think, based on commercials and trailers, it will probably be another dip into the tepid pool of poor storytelling that has produced stuff like BB. Hope I'm wrong.
 








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