DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[clarker99]

When did you start believing everything over at WDWMagic?

Still think the most hilarious thing to come from those forums is all the shuttering of hotel rooms that never amounted to anything of substance on actual data reporting

That site is a cesspool. More people stayed at a domestic Disney hotel in the last 4quarters than any other 4 consecutive quarter span. But yeah, Riverside has been shuttered. Lol.

 

[RivShore]

When did you start believing everything over at WDWMagic?

Still think the most hilarious thing to come from those forums is all the shuttering of hotel rooms that never amounted to anything of substance on actual data reporting

After another solid WDW quarter I was thinking about all those doomsayers over there and here...what do they have to say for themselves after being proven wrong again and again?

 

[HokieRaven5]

After another solid WDW quarter I was thinking about all those doomsayers over there and here...what do they have to say for themselves after being proven wrong again and again?

They just keep on saying the same things over and over again until it eventually it could come true for them. It works out quite well to just follow that schtick.

 

[peder]

I think your stuck in a Chapek time warp. Streaming became profitable a year ago and has been moving in the right direction ever since.

Streaming profitability is a bit fake when they shift costs to their linear product lines. There's no world where they make more money while generating more content with Disney+ than they did with cable a few years ago.

 

[RivShore]

When you appeal to the income groups that are less impacted by major economic shifts, the bumps aren’t as substantive.

Vegas needs the middle-lower income class groups more than Disney has shown to.

That is a great point, just saw a story on how Vegas became a ghost town almost overnight. That dependence on middle income is probably the reason.

 

[peder]

That is a great point, just saw a story on how Vegas became a ghost town almost overnight. That dependence on middle income is probably the reason.

That and I think Vegas has lost a lot of luster for higher income groups as well. You frankly never see influencer types going to Vegas. I think it bores them.

 

[RivShore]

Streaming profitability is a bit fake when they shift costs to their linear product lines. There's no world where they make more money while generating more content with Disney+ than they did with cable a few years ago.

Where is your evidence that they are mis-applying costs because the SEC would be very interested in it. Our old friend Chapek tried to pull that and it helped get him fired and you think it is still happening?

 

[Brian Noble]

Vegas needs the middle-lower income class groups more than Disney has shown to.

I have a sneaking suspicion this is what is going on at SIX as well---it's a downmarket product, and those are getting hammered. I keep hearing the same things from e.g. fast food quarterly calls, discount retailers, etc. The bottom traunches of the income ladder may be pulling back hard.

But that's being masked in part by the upper-middle and above that seems to keep on spending.

 

[The Prophet]

Plus Orlando airport and Orange county TDT collections are strong relative to the rest of the country. Disney seems insulated to any of the current economic factors challenging places like Vegas.

That and I think Vegas has lost a lot of luster for higher income groups as well. You frankly never see influencer types going to Vegas. I think it bores them.

I was in Vegas last last year. The only thing worth seeing is The Sphere -- It is amazing
In my opinion, The Strip has gone downhill and I have no plans to return

 

[clarker99]

Streaming profitability is a bit fake when they shift costs to their linear product lines. There's no world where they make more money while generating more content with Disney+ than they did with cable a few years ago.

Where is your evidence that they are mis-applying costs because the SEC would be very interested in it. Our old friend Chapek tried to pull that and it helped get him fired and you think it is still happening?

Accumulating Linear, DTC and Sports to avoid any ‘hiding’ of costs.. I think we are heading in the right direction.

 

[peder]

Where is your evidence that they are mis-applying costs because the SEC would be very interested in it. Our old friend Chapek tried to pull that and it helped get him fired and you think it is still happening?

There's lots of ways to allocate costs. But just come along with me for a very simple exercise. The amount of original content on Disney+ is very high relative to the Disney Channel, and also very expensive, including Star Wars series which I'm certain are not cheap. And what does each customer pay per month? Looks like it's about $8/month in Disney+ revenue per subscriber (I only pay $2.99, because we keep getting offers to come back to Disney+ that are way below their list price).

On cable TV, ESPN alone is at least $10/month of the bill, and Disney gets the benefit of the bundle (you can't only subscribe to Disney on cable... the packages always include both Disney and ESPN). ~$20/month of your cable bill goes directly to Disney.

There is currently no real direct-to-consumer ESPN option (at least not until August 21st). And the ESPN+ subscriber numbers are wonky because of the number of customers bundling with Disney+. Basically, there's no ESPN DTC market today, or it's small potatoes if you want to count ESPN+, so we'll leave that out for now.

So for every Disney+ subscriber coming from the world of cable or satellite, Disney is down $12 in revenue. And their costs are higher on Disney+. Disney+ pays their linear TV side for their own content with transfer pricing, and they can effectively set whatever price they want. They choose a price that gives their Disney+ product the best public image.

Disney's plan long-term is to leverage the stickiness of their content and their platform to be able to raise prices. They see that Netflix makes $17 per subscriber. So Disney wants to mirror that. Move from $8 -> $17 in a few years. But they're not there yet. At the moment, they're churning thru content and still not commanding Netflix's pricing power.

 

[peder]

View attachment 991728
Accumulating Linear, DTC and Sports to avoid any ‘hiding’ of costs.. I think we are heading in the right direction.

This is a good perspective. You should notice that it appears to be leveling off, and if you compared previous peaks to the one they're moving toward, there would be a steady downward line. So for Wall St, that's probably a bit concerning and a big reason why $DIS isn't trading at a higher multiple.

I am optimistic that once they launch the new direct-to-consumer ESPN package, they can capture more of their fair share of the overall TV market. $30/month is significantly more than they get from cable/satellite and from the YTTV/Fubos of the world.

 

[Brian Noble]

...but they won't get the folks who subscribe to a thick bundle but do not watch sports, or at least not enough to justify $30/month for what is only part of any of the big-audience sports. If you are an NFL or college football fan, you can't subscribe to only ESPN and get everything.

 

[RivShore]

This is a good perspective. You should notice that it appears to be leveling off, and if you compared previous peaks to the one they're moving toward, there would be a steady downward line. So for Wall St, that's probably a bit concerning and a big reason why $DIS isn't trading at a higher multiple.

I am optimistic that once they launch the new direct-to-consumer ESPN package, they can capture more of their fair share of the overall TV market. $30/month is significantly more than they get from cable/satellite and from the YTTV/Fubos of the world.

I think that current trend line is pretty darn promising, it is almost at the decade ago Op Inc, back before cord cutting was a major thing. I think that tells a great story that linier profits can be fully replaced by streaming.

 

[RivShore]

there would be a steady downward line

That steady downward line is the advent of cord cutting, I think most agree that we are closer to the end of that than the beginning. If it levels off DIS could be in a much better place.

 

[RivShore]

The amount of original content on Disney+ is very high relative to the Disney Channel, and also very expensive, including Star Wars series which I'm certain are not cheap.

You might not be up on the latest news that DIS is cutting way back on original D+ series and costs are rapidly coming back in line.

It's funny (or maybe sad), but we crowd sourced exactly what they are moving D+ to on this very board 2.5 years ago...

R

Post in thread 'DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY'

May 24, 2023

Exactly. I thought Disney+ was going to be a complete repository of all things Disney. If all they had was that, I wouldn't even care if they made "originals" (though I would expect new movies to find their way to it eventually). The fact that they are still missing several catalog titles is frustrating.

Also, they didn't remove Avatar becuase ot the sequel but because of the re-release to theaters and minor changes were made. It's a small distinction though.

It's looking like D+ will be forced into something closer to what you've outlined with the cost cutting and now the...

• RivShore

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[BrianL]

You might not be up on the latest news that DIS is cutting way back on original D+ series and costs are rapidly coming back in line.

It's funny (or maybe sad), but we crowd sourced exactly what they are moving D+ to on this very board 2.5 years ago...

R

Post in thread 'DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY'

May 24, 2023

Exactly. I thought Disney+ was going to be a complete repository of all things Disney. If all they had was that, I wouldn't even care if they made "originals" (though I would expect new movies to find their way to it eventually). The fact that they are still missing several catalog titles is frustrating.

Also, they didn't remove Avatar becuase ot the sequel but because of the re-release to theaters and minor changes were made. It's a small distinction though.

It's looking like D+ will be forced into something closer to what you've outlined with the cost cutting and now the...

• RivShore

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I still hold that Disney+ does not need that many originals - they just need to be the final destination for the catalog, with new things added all the time. Just treat it like The Disney Channel - which I guess has original programming, but like DCOMs don't cost that much, and they are still very popular. Original animation is good too, and it can be TV quality. Then you have where they just air a Disney movie from a few years back. All it ever needed to be was TV, but they wanted to make it cinema!

 

[RivShore]

I still hold that Disney+ does not need that many originals - they just need to be the final destination for the catalog, with new things added all the time. Just treat it like The Disney Channel - which I guess has original programming, but like DCOMs don't cost that much, and they are still very popular. Original animation is good too, and it can be TV quality. Then you have where they just air a Disney movie from a few years back. All it ever needed to be was TV, but they wanted to make it cinema!

Mostly agree but i still think one big event series a year would help drive some new (or returning) subs and keep some buzz going in the marketplace.

 

[BrianL]

Mostly agree but i still think one big event series a year would help drive some new (or returning) subs and keep some buzz going in the marketplace.

I mean, sure, but keeping costs in line is still good. I mena, Decendants is an event seried for The Disney Channel, and it pulls in the viewers!

 

[peder]

That steady downward line is the advent of cord cutting, I think most agree that we are closer to the end of that than the beginning. If it levels off DIS could be in a much better place.

I just think you can still see a decline in the increase, and it looks like the next peak is going to be lower than the last peak, which is probably a source of some of Wall Street's reluctance to price $DIS higher. That, along with ample evidence that the parks and cruises have just about squeezed every drop of profitability from each guest.

I'm holding out hope for the new ESPN direct-to-consumer platform. I think it may take some time for customers to make the switch, and many customers might only subscribe a few months a year, but at $30/pop that's a lot of revenue. And they have long-term deals with most of the top sports leagues, so that should have room to run compared to the new Fox One platform. And the launch of the new ESPN platform will finally answer the question: how many streaming-only households have absolutely no interest in cable/satellite/YTTV/Fubo because they don't want to pay for HGTV, etc. has Disney been missing out on all these years? I know I represent one of those households, I'm excited to try their new platform!