Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by SherylLC, Jan 5, 2018.
Do you think DVC will be buying back a lot more of the $200+ point contracts?
Who knows. Depends on their motivation behind the price increase.
There's not enough resale data though to infer any kind of pattern yet. In a couple months I plan to analyze ROFR data on VGF to see what the average price DVD takes contracts back and if it has changed. BLT only went up a few dollars so I figure VGF gives me the best crack at useful data.
I don't think much will change though, the resale market should adapt to the higher prices, and DVD will ROFR underpriced contracts and contracts they want, while letting others pass. I predict similar behavior, just higher prices.
I think that they are raising prices because they do not want to sell any of the sold out resorts. Disney makes a ton of money when they sell new points. That is what they are in business to do make a ton of money. When they used to sell Grand Floridean they made about $35-45 pp. Now they will be raising the price to $220 they will make about $65pp. That's a little better, but when they sell CC at $182pp they make what? A guess would be $150-160pp. That's a lot better than going to all the trouble to make $65 on a 25 point add on.
I sure hope they don't sell anymore BLT, VGF, Poly, and GC. If they still sell that just shows Disney that they can raise the prices higher.
The demand for contracts at Grand Californian is very high, and, of course the resale prices have adjusted accordingly in the last 60 days. I will be surprised if Disney buys the recent contracts we have sold at the Grand Cal. Some Grand Californian sellers are waiting to list until mid February as they think the market is going to continue to push the prices up. So I do think if you are getting a Grand Cal property at a price of say 3 months ago Disney will be buying it back.
I would imagine that every guide would be clamoring for this. It is a lot easier to sell something that somebody wants than to convince them to buy what they don’t want.
Would Disney be able to build more DVC units at the GF since the demand is so high?
Before Disney broke ground on the Villas at Grand Floridian in 2011, there were rumors that it was going to convert some of the Grand Floridian hotel rooms to DVC villas. Even after the VGF plans became public some people were still speculating that Disney would convert the hotel rooms, much like it did at Jambo House in 2007 and ended up doing at Wilderness Lodge beginning in 2015.
Like any good rumor, it will never die; its always possible that Disney could do a hotel room-to-DVC villa conversion at any time in the future.
Could Disney build another stand alone DVC building at the Grand Floridian? I guess anything is possible but I wonder if Disney has the amount of land required for another DVC building at the GF. However, back in 2010 I didn't think there was enough land for the current VGF building, but obviously I was wrong.
If there is any DVC expansion at the Grand Floridian, the first question to be answered is "Will it be an addition to the existing VGF condominium association or will it be, like Copper Creek, a new and separate DVC condo association?" VGF is only 4+ years old right now, but it will be at least 10 years old by the time more villas at built. Would Disney want to sell those new villas with an expiration date of January 2063 -- giving buyers 40 or fewer years of ownership -- or would it want to have a new condo association with 50 years of ownership?
So who pays for the resort to be built? That’s a cost associated with new points only. I highly doubt they will profit $150-160 pp on new sales. They probably make more off resale, just like car dealers do. More of a profit selling a used car than a new one these days. A lot of new car dealers around here have more used cars for sale than new ones.
I think a sure bet in avoiding losing your resale to ROFR is to buy a stripped contract. I don't think Disney would buy a contract that didn't have any immediate points available, but that's just a guess.
I saw that a ssr contract was rofr’d last month with zero 2017 and zero 2018 points available. I think it was $89/point. So just because it’s stripped doesn’t always make it immune but likely reduces the chances.
I think the GCV massive price increase has a lot to do with the potential of a new Dvc at dlr and a pretty high starting point when it occurs. My guide, who is in California, flat out told me to look for resale if I wanted GCV. I doubt there’s going to be much in the way of direct sales increase for GCV with the increase in prices. In raising prices direct they basically also raised the resale prices so no real net gain.
I think much of the reason has to do with making the current actively marketed resorts look like a bargain. If a person could purchase resale onsite for less than half direct, resale wins even with restrictions. If a person can only save 20%, the hassle factor isn’t always worth it and it’s easier to go direct. The direct higher point purchase costs an eye watering amount. I mean how does one justify taking 50-70k today, in cash, out of your earnings market and handing it over to Dvc with expectations that in about 14 years you can save up to 50% off your subsequent vacations? That doesn’t make much sense. Increases in resale pricing have to be there in order to sell the currently marketed points. The smaller direct contracts are not pulling such a large cash amount out of your pocket so people, myself included, don’t see it as such a huge hit to the pocket. I would guess a lot of direct CCV is for around 75 points. Perhaps they are trying to win over more of the 200+ point contracts to direct over resale with these increases?
Not sure how they are going forward with Aulani increases. I’m guessing they have a belly full of re acquired points through foreclosures. They don’t rofr anything and resale is quite a hit compared to the current buy in. Plus their mf’s are going up at alarming rates and they don’t even have any special assessments. They must be targeting a foreign market and a few poor souls who get sucked in with the discount vacation offers they run.
Hmmm, I hadn't thought about that. If they make VGC unattractively high it would certainly drive sales at the new resort. There seems to be a lot of resale listing for VGC at this time and they're not markedly higher than a month or two ago.
But I thought the new resort didn't have DVC...?
There’s been no announcement yet but given how profitable it would be, I can’t see why they wouldn’t be selling Dvc units.
I also think they will hold off on an announcement as long as possible so as not to negatively affect Aulani sales.
I think many Aulani purchasers are Japanese. If they can increase the rate they are purchasing they probably won’t have to account as much for loss of West coast Aulani purchasers should they start sales of a new Dvc west coast.
There is plenty of land there if they relocate the wedding chapel. Personally, I always thought the wedding Chapel should have been located between the contemporary and the TTC for the view of the castle in the background.)
There are 3,321,954 points for copper creek. The new price per point of Copper creek is going to be $182 per point. To make $150 per point they would have had to have spent $106,302,528 on 26 cabins and a remodel of the hotel. I don't know how much it cost to build those cabins, but I cannot imagine they were more than a million a piece. If they did spend a million per cabin that would leave over $80 million for some new walls and some Ikea furniture. I know they did some other improvements too, not millions and millions worth. So there is no way they make more off of resale.
What do you think the costs were to refurbish the wing of the hotel that is now Copper Creek? A lot of times it’s cheaper to build new than refurbish. I’m not familiar with the old layout of the rooms, but full refurbish of a hotel is not cheap. I have not seen any IKEA furniture in a resort yet, but I have not stayed at all of them yet. I’ve seen high schools that cost over $197,000,000 to build that opened in 2010 and one is being built for $256,000,000 now. If it’s big and a building it costs a lot. I’m not saying they are not making $$, but it’s not as much as most think. Plus Copper Creek is not sold out and won’t be for a year or two.
My guide estimated the cabins cost between $300-$400k to build. He didn’t have the exact figures but he said he used to be in the home building business so I trust his estimate.
I saw a Tim Tracker video recently which showed the view of the castle directly behind the wedding chapel at GF. Looked pretty nice.
I see one site sell VGC for around 150$ a point but other sites are around 200$ a point. I wonder why one site is so much lower and how often those get bought back from Disney?
The land for those cabins was nearly free. I can't see them costing more than 250k a piece, if that.
Those $200pp VGC contracts are sitting for a while. Even one of the highest priced brokers is selling VGC at an average price of $189pp. It could be time of year, or it could be that VGC has hit its peak in the resale market and is softening.
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