Crowd Predictions

[focusondisney]

Two years ago we went in Sept for the first time, had previosly gone end of Aug. We had expected it to be a little quieter than Aug, but it didn't seem like it. As the week went on, we found out that Rosh Hashanah was on Thursday that week. Apparently several Florida schools had off Thurs. & Fri. so lots of families had come for the long weekend. This year, Rosh Hashanah is on Sat. the 19th, so I'm hoping schools will not be off...we'll be there the 12-19th! I'm hoping to see these famous low crowds for the first time!!

24 Hours til we are in Disney!!!

 

[sleeper57]

For what it's worth, talked to a friend who's at the World now, and said that crowds at DHS and AK were very low, MK was a bit bigger but very managable.

 

[4mcbjCtr]

My kids used to be part of that Georgia group that was out of school that week, so we did WDW every September for the three years we were there. The lines are very minimal even during the Georgia break. We didn't have to wait for much of anything at all. So, I wouldn't worry about that at all. I am sure with the state of the economy, that attendance is lower than ever.

And, we have since moved away from Georgia, so are going in November this year - the 5th through the 14th. Anybody have any idea what the predictions are for attendance during this period? I would love to know.

 

[Callas]

Spot on is right not because I predicted it but because of what is happening. Some where saying that there is no wait and I was saying there was no wait.... just an statement of agreement.


Touring plans is off if Disney has no wait to 10 minute wait at peak times for headliners. That would be a rating of 1, and a 4 would mean about a 40 minute wait. The true rating for this week is most likely a 2 to 3.


I do expect the week of the 27th to be at lest a true 4 to 5 Tourging Plan rating. The third week should at least be a true 3 to 4 rating.


Night of Joy is most likely scheduled during the lowest attendance time (weekend after laborday).

This is just my prediction and I am no wizard of predictions!!! But if you expect it to decrease the last two weeks compared to the first two weeks your expectations may not be met (including Touring plans). Disney resort capacity should indicate some direction of movement.

I predict that a 30 minute headliner attraction during peak times the third week (20th) and a 40 minute headliner attraction during peak times during the last week (27).

Again 40 minute peak time waits is awsome low crowd numbers. But, I would be paniky if I chose that last week..... for some reason my gut tells me it is going to be on the high side of low crowd expectations. I am a little worried about the 20th as far as my low crowd expectations. I have gone in recent free dining Septembers and I miss my old non free dining Septembers (almost too empty).

Its is all about expectations and crowd level perceptions. My low crowd may not be your low crowd, and thats perfectly ok.

Callas

 

[SnowWhite33]

We are arriving 10/2 and leaving 10/10-anyone care to "predict" what we can expect? I think that by 10/9-10/10 the Columbus day crowds will be rolling in.

We are in KY and our fall break is 10/5-10/9, normally we are those "bad" parents who take our ds out of school for vacation, but he has now started HS so that is no more.

 

[Peace Mickey Lovers]

We are also going 10/1-10/7, wondering what the predictions will be like. I know last year the parks had low crowds, hoping for the best.

 

[Chadsgirl44]

We just returned yesterday. Our trip was from Sept. 5th - 10th. The crowds starting on Monday night were non-existent. The 5th through the afternoon of the 7th (Labor Day Weekend) were very managable. After the 7th everything was a walk on - including Sorin' with a 20 minute wait at 11:30 AM yesterday! We will definately be returning again next year at this time.

 

[rlahsin]

We are arriving 10/2 and leaving 10/10-anyone care to "predict" what we can expect? I think that by 10/9-10/10 the Columbus day crowds will be rolling in.

We are in KY and our fall break is 10/5-10/9, normally we are those "bad" parents who take our ds out of school for vacation, but he has now started HS so that is no more.

We'll be there at roughly the same time.....10/4-10/12. I think the crowds will grow the weekend prior to Columbus Day (October 12th), but I'm hoping that the crowds earlier in the week will be minimal. We shall soon see!

 

[purplebelle]

Oh, boy... here I got re-vamping my plans!

I will be in Disney on the 19th (late, like 9pm)

My original plan is:
Sunday the 20th: Animal Kingdom and Magic Kingdom (for extra magic hours)
Monday the 21st: Epcot and Hollywood Studios (again b/c HS has EMH)
Tuesday the 22nd: Blizzard Beach
Wed the 23rd: heading home

I'm wondering if I should separate my long park days with Blizzard Beach in the middle. Only problem is that really messes up my ADRs with free dining. Are two really long park days in a row too exhausting to enjoy? Plus if I switched to parks on Sunday and Tuesday, I lose the EMH at HS in the evening but Touringplans.com says Sunday and Tuesday are '4' for crowd level.

I don't want to mess up my ADRs (we have one at Epcot at Akershus with the Princesses on Monday the 21st) but maybe long hours of the parks two days in a row is too much. For the Blizzard Beach day, we're just heading to the water park and then relaxing at CBR -- no other park that day.

Thoughts???

 

[SnowWhite33]

We are also going 10/1-10/7, wondering what the predictions will be like. I know last year the parks had low crowds, hoping for the best.

We'll be there at roughly the same time.....10/4-10/12. I think the crowds will grow the weekend prior to Columbus Day (October 12th), but I'm hoping that the crowds earlier in the week will be minimal. We shall soon see!

Out of curiosity last night I checked to see what resorts were still available with free dining for the week I'm there, no values,no POFQ, no CSR, but CBR and POR came up with offers. I checked several deluxes and even the new BLT and there was space at all of them. I'm hoping that's a good sign

 

[SnowWhite33]

Oh, boy... here I got re-vamping my plans!

I will be in Disney on the 19th (late, like 9pm)

My original plan is:
Sunday the 20th: Animal Kingdom and Magic Kingdom (for extra magic hours)
Monday the 21st: Epcot and Hollywood Studios (again b/c HS has EMH)
Tuesday the 22nd: Blizzard Beach
Wed the 23rd: heading home

I'm wondering if I should separate my long park days with Blizzard Beach in the middle. Only problem is that really messes up my ADRs with free dining. Are two really long park days in a row too exhausting to enjoy? Plus if I switched to parks on Sunday and Tuesday, I lose the EMH at HS in the evening but Touringplans.com says Sunday and Tuesday are '4' for crowd level.

I don't want to mess up my ADRs (we have one at Epcot at Akershus with the Princesses on Monday the 21st) but maybe long hours of the parks two days in a row is too much. For the Blizzard Beach day, we're just heading to the water park and then relaxing at CBR -- no other park that day.

Thoughts???

I wouldn't mess with it at this late date if it's messing up the ADRs, are you planning a break between parks at the hotel? We always break our day up with a break, even a couple hours can really make a difference.

 

[Callas]

October is known for its fall breaks and weather thats cool but yet warm enough to swim.

October should have max peak wait times at 60 to 70 minutes. Its a good time of year to go to have perfect weather but you have to pay for it by having medium level crowds.

October is normally lower attendance then spring break (April).

Halloween may draw a few extra people.

Watch out for Jersey week first week in November.

Now I have not studied enough to determine what weeks are best for October. I would lean to targeting the middle two weeks of the month.

But I am just a Disney geek and have no cyrstal ball.....

 

[rlahsin]

Out of curiosity last night I checked to see what resorts were still available with free dining for the week I'm there, no values,no POFQ, no CSR, but CBR and POR came up with offers. I checked several deluxes and even the new BLT and there was space at all of them. I'm hoping that's a good sign

I've been doing the same thing! There appears to still be plenty of openings at most of the Disney resorts during that first week of October. I too hope that that's a great sign!

 

[purplebelle]

I wouldn't mess with it at this late date if it's messing up the ADRs, are you planning a break between parks at the hotel? We always break our day up with a break, even a couple hours can really make a difference.

I think you're right about leaving things alone at this point. I do plan to take breaks back at CBR in between the parks. What times do most people do 1/2 parks... like rope drop - 1pm, back at resort until 4pm, and then head over to next park? I think I just convinced myself to leave things alone.

Thanks for your help!

 

[SnowWhite33]

I think you're right about leaving things alone at this point. I do plan to take breaks back at CBR in between the parks. What times do most people do 1/2 parks... like rope drop - 1pm, back at resort until 4pm, and then head over to next park? I think I just convinced myself to leave things alone.

Thanks for your help!

I think those times sound just perfect,

 

[pilesoflaundry]

I heard that there were some Georgia schools that are out starting the 20th and that the crowds were going to go up that week significantly. Hope not though. We'll still be there that week.

It's only one county that I know of out next week, I'm not sure about the rest of the state or the week of the 20th. We are going next week instead of the following week (dd's bday) because taking them out of school for 5 days wasn't worth being there for her bday.

Sept. is still low but we are used to peak season so to me 4 and 6 is awesome but I suppose if you have always gone in Sept. the recent school fall breaks that are becoming popular would put a cramp in that.

 

[My3kiddos]

My plans are all messed up now that I've seen the crowd calendars for our week Oct 9-17. I thought Columbus Day would be crowded but now it's saying it's a 4 but the Sat and Sun before are 8 and the best parks have changed. I need to get a subscription to touring plans and revamp my plan. Is it normal for Columbus Day to be not so crowded? I figured it would be packed.

 

[mom2rtk]

My plans are all messed up now that I've seen the crowd calendars for our week Oct 9-17. I thought Columbus Day would be crowded but now it's saying it's a 4 but the Sat and Sun before are 8 and the best parks have changed. I need to get a subscription to touring plans and revamp my plan. Is it normal for Columbus Day to be not so crowded? I figured it would be packed.

I think a lot of folks actually head home on the last day of a long weekend.

 

[Disney-Kim]

I predict for the week of Sept 26-Oct 3rd.....





that I will have fun no matter what the crowds are

 

[TCups4Me]

I wouldn't get too worked up about crowd predictions for Sept and Oct. Comparing ANY week of these months to Spring Break or Christmas is way off base in my opinion. The crowds may not be the ultra lows of this week but they will still be very manageable with some forethought.