Crowd levels for week before Christmas? (Touring plans)

[mom2connorandcaleb]

We were planning on going to Disney January 21-28th, 2023 but I was looking at the crowd calendar on Touring Plans and they have the week before Christmas looking much better, so I was considering changing our dates. Can that be right? It shows the January week at a 6-8 and the week before Christmas (December 17-23) at a 4-6. I would assume the December dates would be much worse. What do you think?

 

[Mrs.AMC]

I think they are wrong.
I've been both weeks

 

[mom2connorandcaleb]

I think they are wrong.
I've been both weeks

Thanks! Yes, this seems wrong. My app says this right now:

 

[Mrs.AMC]

OK. I don't doubt that's what they have
I just don't happen to agree with them
I don't usually actually
I will say, the first half of the week of the 17th, it will be lighter crowds but as it gets to the end of the week it will be heavy. People will head down as soon as school release
That's near the marathon in January and it will also be heavy. Not as heavy as Christmas but close.

 

[shosh1530]

I think Touring Plans and other crowd calendars have been even more off than usual post-pandemic.

I will say though that the way the holidays fall this year, many school districts are not getting out until the following week. Our first day of winter break in Arizona is 12/23 and then we have the first week of January off from school.

 

[scrappinginontario]

I can’t comment on the January dates as we don’t have late January school breaks here but, I can see the December 2022 dates being accurate as schools are in session until Dec 22nd, 2022. Because if this, the big vacation rush begins on Dec 23rd here.

 

[justafigment27]

My youngest just graduated, so I haven’t paid attention to our district calendar for next school year. But I just looked and, sure enough, break starts on 12/23/22 and they don’t go back until 1/9/23. There are 8 districts in our ISD that follow the same break calendar. But the ISD just south of us starts break on 12/17/22 and goes back to school on 1/3/22. Looks like it’s a mixed bag.

 

[mom2connorandcaleb]

Wow, I had no idea all these school districts have their break so late! Ours starts on the 16th.

 

[maltdizzy]

Wow, I had no idea all these school districts have their break so late! Ours starts on the 16th.

More and more overlap the Eastern Orthodox/Coptic Christmas (Jan. 7) as more school systems work to be inclusive. Others are staggering breaks to offset travel crowds.

As for Touring Plans and other crowd calendars, they've not been reliable for some time, about 5 years ago they were cut off from the staffing data they used to rely on, plus there isn't enough post-pandemic precedent for charting trends. This past Winter was more crowded than ever, maybe they expect a repeat?

 

[Mle8308]

I agree. I've used TP for years and post pandemic, I find the crowd tracker to be very off, at least for the past few trips in 2021/2022. And the wait times are not accurate, there aren't enough people entering times to keep it updated. A wait time in TP may show 25 minutes, but if you check to see the last time a person entered/updated a wait time, it may have been an hour ago. I know they use historic data, too, but with the new Genie+ I don't think they have enough data yet (G+ wasn't used last summer). As a result their wait times can be very off, and not in a good way.

 

[mom2connorandcaleb]

Are there any crowd calendars that you all think are more accurate right now?

ETA: I just now saw, maltdizzy, that you said all crowd calendars are off. Sorry

So, what are other indicators I should look for to try to see what crowds may be like? How many rooms are available? Prices of rooms? We are staying off-site though, so prices don’t bother me.

 

[Mle8308]

Are there any crowd calendars that you all think are more accurate right now?

Not sure, right now it's just crazy busy, even in the traditionally slower times. Not a lot of difference between a day that is a 6 or day that is an 8. Plan what you want to do and study up on Genie+, people have had success using it on very busy days. I don't remember when they take the Christmas decorations down, if you go in December they will be up and it's really nice to see. Not sure if the parks/resorts will still be decorated by that week in January.

 

[lentesta]

We were planning on going to Disney January 21-28th, 2023 but I was looking at the crowd calendar on Touring Plans and they have the week before Christmas looking much better, so I was considering changing our dates. Can that be right? It shows the January week at a 6-8 and the week before Christmas (December 17-23) at a 4-6. I would assume the December dates would be much worse. What do you think?

I'm Len, and I run the TP website. I might be able to provide some context here.

One thing to note is that December's Christmas parties drastically reduce crowds at the Magic Kingdom. People without park-hopper tickets don't visit the MK as much on those days, since the park closes early. There's no corresponding party in January. When you're looking at specific dates, the number of Christmas parties in a given week becomes a factor.

Just looking at the Magic Kingdom over the past few years, here's what our actual crowd levels have been for your dates, using Disney's posted wait times at key attractions as the underlying basis for the numbers. And keep in mind that Disney's posted wait times vary a lot, and don't always reflect reality:

• For your dates in late 2022/2023, we think the MK will average crowd levels of around 4.9 in December, and 5.9 in January.
  
  
• In 2019/2020, the last pre-pandemic year, the MK averaged 6.9 in January and 5.1 in December. So that's in line with the 2023 predictions.
  
  
• In 2018/2019 it was 6.0 in January and 6.8 in December. Both periods had one day of bad weather, I think, that affected park attendance.
  
  
• This past January (so 2022/2021), the MK crowd level for Jan 21-28 averaged 6.25, while the December dates averaged 6.7. That's pretty close to even.

I get the intuitive appeal of assuming that the week before Christmas will be much more crowded than January. But the posted wait times that we've seen going back several years, doesn't seem to support that, at least for the Magic Kingdom.

Incidentally, we make our key wait time data available to the public for free, so anyone can check our math.

Hope this helps.

 

[Mle8308]

I'm Len, and I run the TP website. I might be able to provide some context here.

One thing to note is that December's Christmas parties drastically reduce crowds at the Magic Kingdom. People without park-hopper tickets don't visit the MK as much on those days, since the park closes early. There's no corresponding party in January. When you're looking at specific dates, the number of Christmas parties in a given week becomes a factor.

Just looking at the Magic Kingdom over the past few years, here's what our actual crowd levels have been for your dates, using Disney's posted wait times at key attractions as the underlying basis for the numbers. And keep in mind that Disney's posted wait times vary a lot, and don't always reflect reality:

• For your dates in late 2022/2023, we think the MK will average crowd levels of around 4.9 in December, and 5.9 in January.
  
  
• In 2019/2020, the last pre-pandemic year, the MK averaged 6.9 in January and 5.1 in December. So that's in line with the 2023 predictions.
  
  
• In 2018/2019 it was 6.0 in January and 6.8 in December. Both periods had one day of bad weather, I think, that affected park attendance.
  
  
• This past January (so 2022/2021), the MK crowd level for Jan 21-28 averaged 6.25, while the December dates averaged 6.7. That's pretty close to even.

I get the intuitive appeal of assuming that the week before Christmas will be much more crowded than January. But the posted wait times that we've seen going back several years, doesn't seem to support that, at least for the Magic Kingdom.

Incidentally, we make our key wait time data available to the public for free, so anyone can check our math.

Hope this helps.

I still love TP even though I don't always fine the wait times to be accurate!

 

[mom2connorandcaleb]

I'm Len, and I run the TP website. I might be able to provide some context here.

One thing to note is that December's Christmas parties drastically reduce crowds at the Magic Kingdom. People without park-hopper tickets don't visit the MK as much on those days, since the park closes early. There's no corresponding party in January. When you're looking at specific dates, the number of Christmas parties in a given week becomes a factor.

Just looking at the Magic Kingdom over the past few years, here's what our actual crowd levels have been for your dates, using Disney's posted wait times at key attractions as the underlying basis for the numbers. And keep in mind that Disney's posted wait times vary a lot, and don't always reflect reality:

• For your dates in late 2022/2023, we think the MK will average crowd levels of around 4.9 in December, and 5.9 in January.
  
  
• In 2019/2020, the last pre-pandemic year, the MK averaged 6.9 in January and 5.1 in December. So that's in line with the 2023 predictions.
  
  
• In 2018/2019 it was 6.0 in January and 6.8 in December. Both periods had one day of bad weather, I think, that affected park attendance.
  
  
• This past January (so 2022/2021), the MK crowd level for Jan 21-28 averaged 6.25, while the December dates averaged 6.7. That's pretty close to even.

I get the intuitive appeal of assuming that the week before Christmas will be much more crowded than January. But the posted wait times that we've seen going back several years, doesn't seem to support that, at least for the Magic Kingdom.

Incidentally, we make our key wait time data available to the public for free, so anyone can check our math.

Hope this helps.

Thank you Len! I really appreciate all that you do! Is there any reason for the late January crowds? Or is just like that all the time now? I’d sure rather go during Christmas, we have never been at that time!

 

[Mrs.AMC]

Thank you Len! I really appreciate all that you do! Is there any reason for the late January crowds? Or is just like that all the time now? I’d sure rather go during Christmas, we have never been at that time!

Marathon

 

[mom2connorandcaleb]

Marathon

It’s January 4-8 though right? We’re going 21-28

 

[Mrs.AMC]

It’s January 4-8 though right? We’re going 21-28

Hmmm. For some reason I thought it fell after MLK. Sorry.

Bottom line. My advice. Give up with planning around crowd calendar. It’s not the Disney of old where they matter any at all. The park reservation system has changed park attendance and touring to the point that you should just go when it’s convenient for you.

 

[lentesta]

Thank you Len! I really appreciate all that you do! Is there any reason for the late January crowds? Or is just like that all the time now? I’d sure rather go during Christmas, we have never been at that time!

Good question. When we've measured actual crowds in the second half of January, they've been "average or higher" in all non-pandmic years going back to 2016, except 2017 (when it was just a tiny bit below average). So I think it's a trend.

The big factors we don't know yet for your dates include COVID, inflation, and weather, of course. (And the possibilty of Tron opening in December, which is my personal guess, based on absolutely nothing.)

Ultimately, my advice would be not to stress out about the differences between the two weeks. In the overall scheme of things, they're close enough. I'd go with the week that best fits your budget and schedule. Bring a touring plan and sunscreen.

 

[mom2connorandcaleb]

Thank you all for your help!