Crowd level projections 3rd week in December

[JennyDrake]

Something to know about TP is that you can't compare to previous years anymore and have that be meaningful. They changed their methodology pretty significantly last year. In the past they had an absolute scale. So xx mins = 5, you mins = 6, etc. Now what the numbers are telling you how crowded they predict it to be compare to other days in a certain time period (and I forget what that period is - I'm not sure they said what it was). So a 1 now doesn't necessarily equate at all to what a 1 was last year or the year before.

THANK YOU for explaining this!! I hadn't heard this before!

 

[JasonMak2000]

That makes a lot of sense. Today MK is listed as a 1 but wait times around 11 am were 40 min for Haunted Mansion, 45 for SM and 65 for 7DMT. If that is TP level 1 then I definitely dont want to see what a 9 or 10 is now.

 

[shh]

Another indicator is park hours - we're going around the same time and I'm waiting to see if any non-party MK days will have their closing hours extended that week. They usually do those the month before.

 

[LovePug]

Another indicator is park hours - we're going around the same time and I'm waiting to see if any non-party MK days will have their closing hours extended that week. They usually do those the month before.

Watching that, also...

 

[MicroBeta]

For anyone who is interested, here is what Touring Plans uses to calculate crowd levels. This is for the Magic Kingdom. It shows the rides and wait times for 2011, 2015, & 2017.

Mike

 

[lambdabeta]

The big thing about TP is they drastically changed their crowd calendars in 2015 because the crowds were increasing. They tweaked that in 2017 to reflect the continued uptick in crowds. So now if you are comparing 2017-2018 you are comparing apples to apples. If you compare 2015,16,17 and 18 you are closer but not exactly apples to apples. However if you look at anything before 2015 you are looking at pomegranates. A crowd level of 1 in 2018 is equal to a crowd level of 9-10 with the 2011 numbers TP used through 2014. So yes you can't compare every year but you can compare the last 2-3 pretty well to see trends. Crowds have gone done in June and July over the last 2 years but have gone up the rest of the year using TP's crowd calendars with the past crowd levels. So looking at those numbers is why I am skeptical about how low the predictions are for Nov and Dec this year. I am still hoping they are correct and the levels will be as low as they say but I am taking a wait and see attitude. Also they can't predict what Disney will do with ride capacity which throws their numbers way off. Disney has already cut ride times in AK for Nov and Dec and I wonder how that will affect the lines on other rides. They changed one of my FP's because of this and did affect my plan for the day I am at AK.

 

[Lisa F]

The big thing about TP is they drastically changed their crowd calendars in 2015 because the crowds were increasing. They tweaked that in 2017 to reflect the continued uptick in crowds. So now if you are comparing 2017-2018 you are comparing apples to apples. If you compare 2015,16,17 and 18 you are closer but not exactly apples to apples. However if you look at anything before 2015 you are looking at pomegranates. A crowd level of 1 in 2018 is equal to a crowd level of 9-10 with the 2011 numbers TP used through 2014. So yes you can't compare every year but you can compare the last 2-3 pretty well to see trends. Crowds have gone done in June and July over the last 2 years but have gone up the rest of the year using TP's crowd calendars with the past crowd levels. So looking at those numbers is why I am skeptical about how low the predictions are for Nov and Dec this year. I am still hoping they are correct and the levels will be as low as they say but I am taking a wait and see attitude. Also they can't predict what Disney will do with ride capacity which throws their numbers way off. Disney has already cut ride times in AK for Nov and Dec and I wonder how that will affect the lines on other rides. They changed one of my FP's because of this and did affect my plan for the day I am at AK.

Do you mean cut ride capacity or ride times (as in keeping some rides closed for part of the day)? Just clarifying.

 

[lambdabeta]

Do you mean cut ride capacity or ride times (as in keeping some rides closed for part of the day)? Just clarifying.

I actually mean both.

 

[picktails]

We are staying at the Yacht Club to celebrate my daughter's college graduation Dec. 17 -22: DM (74), DD (22), and myself (53) - so definitely an adult trip! Thankful that crowd numbers have decreased, but no matter. We have our FP+ booked from late morning on, and will just take it as it comes. Been taking the kids every other year since my son was 2 (now 26,) but those were the days of paper fast pass. Truly glad to be able to tour in a more relaxed manner now, soak it up, including a cocktail or two!

 

[carly3592]

We'll be there Dec 19-27 and we're bracing for the worst anything remotely less than complete absolute chaos will be welcomed by me!!

 

[GoofyforDisney3]

Well, if Murphy's Law has anything to do with it I've guaranteed lighter than normal crowds on 12/22 because I booked the parade package at Tony's AND the fireworks dessert party specifically to avoid the crazy crowds and to get to do two things I really want to do with out waiting hours to get a decent viewing location.

 

[Klayfish]

We've done Xmas week twice, in 2015 and again last year. Yes, it's busy, no doubt about it. But chaos, insanity, madness, etc....no. Only during fireworks at MK would I describe it that way. Otherwise, I just found it to be very busy, but still tons of fun.

 

[zakager]

Not sure if anyone else posted this but it is possible that some of the insane crowding last year during November and December may have been rebooking due to the Hurricanes that effected many traveling in September. I know we were wondering ourselves if we were going to need to reschedule. We were able to get there between two separate hurricanes.

 

[epcotty]

What do people on here think of kenny the pirate's crowd calendar? He seems to have similar opinions to touringplans

 

[4luv2cdisney]

We will be there 15-22 and I was wondering if bookings were down and they are expecting lower crowds, because they were targeting that week with their "Ultimate Disney Christmas Package".

I was kind of wondering if I should alter any of my plans based on that package. For example, I wonder if AK will be busier or less busy on Wed that week because they're staying open late for the purchasers of that package....? Totally sucks because I was planning on hitting up Navi at the end of the night right before park close. Well, that line could be full of people who still have another hour in the park...
Ugh.

What about MVMCP? Are they offering the 18th only because they need to sell tickets or is it guaranteed to be a packed house BECAUSE of the package.

Again.....ugh.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

 

[MickleSt]

What do people on here think of kenny the pirate's crowd calendar? He seems to have similar opinions to touringplans

I'm wondering as well. One difference I've noted is that he recommends NOT doing a park with evening EMH. He chooses a different park for crowd levels on those days.

 

[BridgetBordeaux]

Regardless of crowd level, having a touring plan is the best way to make the most of your visit.

 

[jaysmom4285]

Regardless of crowd level, having a touring plan is the best way to make the most of your visit.

This. Even Touring Plans will tell you that having a good plan is the single most helpful thing you can do.