Crowd Calendars seem completely inconsistent

[J-Dog]

I know that I've read comments on the DIS boards many times that crowd calendars are basically pointless anymore, but it still shocks me that different crowd calendars are so different. You would think that general stuff, like which times of the years are busiest, would at least be consistent across all crowd calendars, but it's not.

Case in point - we are going to WDW in February of 2020. We chose this time mostly because my part of the country has had gray, snowy, cold weather for 3 months, and the end of February is the best time to break the streak of crappy weather. However, we are looking at different crowd calendars just to get an idea of what park to plan at what time, and they are all over the place for information. For example, Undercover Tourist puts February 27 as 3/10 "green" (their "low" crowd designation), but Touring Plans puts that same day as an 8/10 in terms of crowds. They aren't even close.

Also, in some cases, travel sites will list February as one of the least-attended times of the year, but Touring Plans says that February is generally busier than August, Sept, early November, etc.

Part of the problem for our particular dates seems to be Mardi Gras. Some travel sites say that Mardi Gras will result in "moderately heavy" crowds, while other travel sites say that Mardi Gras generally has no influence on WDW.

Sorry. Just venting, I guess. We're going at that time no matter what. Just frustrated that the current information out there seems so hit-and-miss.

 

[Callist]

I understand your frustration. 7 years ago, the crowd calendars were great. Now, we just go when it's best for us, and ignore the predictions. I think the problem is that things are changing so much that the factors they used to use for predictions no longer apply. ::shrugs:: I just keep telling myself, "It's a day at Disney!"

No matter what happens, I hope you have a great trip!

 

[GoofyCoaster]

The crowd calendars are super frustrating. We planned a Feb 2019 trip expecting 4-5/10 crowds. The first part of the trip was low/medium crowds but then the Presidents’ Day crowds arrived sooner and bigger than predicted and the TP crowd calendar was revised to 10/10 while we were there. It was much, much more crowded than trips we’ve taken in June, August, and September.
The first two weeks of Feb are usually lower crowds, but as it gets into President’s weekend (starts wed or thurs before the Monday holiday), then Princess half marathon, then Mardi Gras and early spring breaks, crowds build quickly.

But we had a great time. Even with crowds, being at sunny Disney was so much better than being at work on a cold, snowy, gray day at home!

 

[J-Dog]

I understand your frustration. 7 years ago, the crowd calendars were great. Now, we just go when it's best for us, and ignore the predictions. I think the problem is that things are changing so much that the factors they used to use for predictions no longer apply. ::shrugs:: I just keep telling myself, "It's a day at Disney!"

No matter what happens, I hope you have a great trip!

Thanks! Yeah, I agree. Its still a WDW vacation. It'll still be a good time. We're expecting crowds and will just deal with that part.

It's just a little annoying when you look at a crowd calendar, and then start to create a plan, then look at another crowd calendar - and that crowd calendar basically says that my plan is all wrong!

 

[SaintsManiac]

Mardi Gras absolutely affects crowds.

 

[Callist]

I hear you, I really do. I've totally changed my game plan strategy. Now I plan around fast passes for the hard to get rides, and avoid EPCOT on weekends during Food and Wine. I ignore everything else because nothing else seems to work. I've have to say "%^^& it!" and walk away from the computer a time or two when making plans! lol

 

[J-Dog]

Mardi Gras absolutely affects crowds.

Being from the PNW, I knew that Mardi Gras was a celebration in New Orleans, but I had absolutely no idea that it was some kind of big school holiday in the South.

Just one more thing to consider when planning I guess.

 

[J-Dog]

I've been looking into the crown calendars a little bit more...

I understand that Touring Plans is a well-respected website and lots of people utilize their information for planning their trips. But I guess I don't get it. According to them, July 2019 is averaging 4-5/10 for crowd levels, and crowds immediately after SWGE opens are going to average 10/10 in HS, but very low in the other parks. BUT, late February 2020 is averaging 9-10/10??? What is happening in late February that is causing such high crowds?

I understand that Mardi Gras will increase crowds, but to levels that are twice as high as during summer vacation?

Also according to their crowd calendar, late February is the single busiest time of year, if you don't count holidays - Thanksgiving, Christmas/New Year, and Spring Break. Does that seem correct?

Just doesn't seem right to me.. But what do I know?

 

[Nvrgrowup]

J-Dog one of the reasons you will see increasing crowds the end of February is tha schools in the northeast get a winter break , a week off usually somewhere around Presidents day . A lot of families head to the world then to escape the cold.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Mardi Gras is 2/25 next year. I was there this year and it was packed.

 

[J-Dog]

Mardi Gras is 2/25 next year. I was there this year and it was packed.

I'm not denying that Mardi Gras will impact crowds, but the only schools that get that time off are a few states in the South. I guess I just don't see how that can result in 10's as far as crowds, but June/July, which is summer vacation for the entire nation and most of Europe, only results in 4-6/10's.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I'm not denying that Mardi Gras will impact crowds, but the only schools that get that time off are a few states in the South. I guess I just don't see how that can result in 10's as far as crowds, but June/July, which is summer vacation for the entire nation and most of Europe, only results in 4-6/10's.

Attendance has been down in the summer for a couple of years. More people are going in the fall. Crowd patterns shift. People look at the crowd calendar, see February as "slow" and start going then. That creates the change.

The thing about Mardi Gras is that it usually is combined with other things. There are winter breaks for up north, President's Day, Princess Half, etc.

ETA: I don't use crowd calendars and I think they are a bunch of baloney. I just know it's fact that summer has been lower than normal the last couple of years.

 

[J-Dog]

I apologize. I'm just venting.

Like I said in the OP, it's just weird that UT lists late February as one of the slowest times of the year, but TP lists it as the busiest time of year that's not a holiday. It can't be both ways - one of them has to be significantly wrong, I just can't figure out which one.

 

[J-Dog]

Attendance has been down in the summer for a couple of years. More people are going in the fall. Crowd patterns shift. People look at the crowd calendar, see February as "slow" and start going then. That creates the change.

The thing about Mardi Gras is that it usually is combined with other things. There are winter breaks for up north, President's Day, Princess Half, etc.

Thanks for the advice!

 

[kappyfamily]

I know it was mentioned above but remember late February is the Princess Half marathon too, 20k runners and their families that will be at the parks. I’ve ran it 2x and along with Mardi Gras and Presidents’ Day, all 3 at the same time make it packed.