Covid 19 Pandemic - The Perfect Storm that Destroyed DVC

[RoseGold]

You must not be looking at the resale values I am with this clickbait title. Resale VGF isn't 20% from the end of the year. I'd hardly call that destruction.

 

[meanwoodwhite]

DVC has always been an insanely overpriced vacation club. The "value" of buying off the resale market has always been the worst of the 3 major vacation clubs. (Wyndham, Marriott and DVC). You can join Club Wyndham for a few hundred bucks and stay at Bonnet Creek during food and wine in a 2 bedroom for $600/week or you can use your points to trade into a 1 bedroom SSR for $1000/week during less busy weeks in the year.

Legacy Marriott weeks are a little more expensive, but nothing compared to DVC. The cheapest way to join Marriott is to get a 2 bedroom Grand Chateau lock off with a $1500 buy in cost, split the lockoff into two II deposits and trade back into two 2 bedrooms for around $1100/week in exchange/maintenance fees. Lakeshore Reserve is nicer than any DVC property. IDK why people are obseessed with Beach Club's pool. It pales in comparison to Lakeshore's amenities. You get access to the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton staying at Lakeshore reserve for $1100/week if you know how to trade in II. That only gets you a crappy studio in DVC's system when you factor in buy-in costs (cost per point per year).

The only good "value" that DVC has ever really had compared to other systems is if you want to have a weekend getaway to Orlando. Club Wyndham has housekeeping credits that you will run out of it you only stay 1 or 2 nights, Legacy Marriott weeks require a 7 night stay and Marriott's DC points have a high buy in cost/maintenance fees. Don't get me wrong, I want to own in all 3 systems eventually, but DVC will be the LAST one I buy into because it's the WORST deal of the 3 when buying resale. I don't get why people think of DVC as the superior vacation club. Wyndham and Marriott are! How many properties do you have access to with DVC? Wyndham has 220 if you include Worldmark and Marriott has over 70 with the majority being equal in quality to DVC.

You can compare DVC's "value" to staying on site, but staying on site has never been a good value. I've lived near Olrando most my life and most people I know don't waste their money on staying on site because they know there are better resorts for the money. I hope this recession makes more people aware of this. A lot of DVC owners are completely oblivious to what else is out there.

Difference is that those Marriott timeshares you can stay in as a non owner for a couple hundred bucks a night. I stayed in Marriott Harbour Lake which was a lovely one bed unit and the resort was great but it was only $150 a night albeit it was November.

But your not going to get a night in a one bed at a DVC resort even OKW or SSR for less than $400 a night.

 

[Brian Noble]

You are assuming the demand will be there in a world ravaged not only by a pandemic and economic downturn. The demand just isn’t going to be there for a long time after the first few weeks.

I think this is an interesting point. Even though WDW Park capacity is going to go down, demand is also likely to go down.

How many people are going to feel comfortable in an environment where crowding is unknown and mask use is uncertain, with travelers from at least the Eastern half of the US, if not from much farther? How many people are going to want to be in a slow-moving indoor queue, even with six feet of separation? How many people are going to feel comfortable staying in a hotel room? How many people are willing to get on an airplane in the next six months?

Sure, lots of people will want to do those things. But, lots of people also won't! Disney specifically and theme parks generally are not the only ways to have a nice vacation---there are lots of others. Many of them will be seen as less risky in terms of infection either because of the nature of the activity, the reduced travel requirements, etc.

I am a huge fan of amusement/water parks, with visits to several every year. That may change for me. Heck, I already have a Cedar Fair platinum pass good chain-wide through the end of 2021. Two of their parks are within day-trip distance, including Cedar Point, their flagship. I'm not sure I will set foot in one of them once in that time. I don't believe that enough guests are going to take mask wearing/social distancing seriously enough for me to feel comfortable going. Attitudes are going to have to change quite a bit to meet my comfort level, and I don't see that happening anytime soon.