Conflicting Crowd Calendar recommendations

[rickdl]

We're visiting Disney World from March 8 to 16, probably our 5th trip in past 7 years. An avid visitor to various crowd calendars to help us pick which park on which days of our trip to go

One strange thing I've noticed is that the crowd calendars on various sites sometimes seem to be giving totally different recommendations. So my quandary now is which one to believe and also understand why they'd differ.

For example on Sunday, March 9th the Undercover Tourist lists Disney Hollywood Studios as a "RED" park (i.e. avoid) but at touringplans website on that same day it lists Hollywood studios crowd as a "4" (lower numbers are better) which is actually the lowest crowd level at Hollywood Studios for like the entire rest of the month!!

I've always liked and trusted both those sites. So bit startled that they'd have such different crowd planning recommendations for that theme park on that day.

Any ideas? Is one more reliable than the other? Any recommendations on the most 'accurate' crowd calendar?

 

[LSUfan4444]

TIFWIW:

http://www.easywdw.com/calendar/march-2014-walt-disney-world-crowd-calendar/#more-11629

Sunday March 9

Animal Kingdom: 8am – 8pm (Highly Recommended)

Mickey’s Jammin’ Jungle Parade: 3:45pm

Epcot: 9am – 9pm (Recommended)

Illuminations: 9pm

Hollywood Studios: 9am – 10pm (Most Recommended)

Fantasmic: 8:30pm and 10pm

Magic Kingdom: 9am – 1am (Not Recommended)

Evening Extra Magic Hours: 1am – 3am

Festival of Fantasy Parade: 3pm, Main Street Electrical Parade: 9pm and 11pm, Wishes Fireworks: 10pm

Animal Kingdom comes highly recommended. We don’t have Extra Magic Hours or special events to attract people. The early morning, from 8am – 10am, is always the best time to tour. Standby waits are guaranteed to be short as few people are able to make it out to Animal Kingdom by rope drop. And once they do, they get bogged down with The Oasis, Tree of Life, and other things. Ideally, plan to arrive by 7:30am and focus on riding Kilimanjaro Safaris and Expedition Everest as early as possible or plan to use FASTPASS later in the day (or both). After getting those out of the way, move on to DinoLand USA for Primeval Whirl and DINOSAUR or one of the more popular shows. If you have young children or otherwise have interest, plan to visit the most popular characters by lining up for them about five minutes before they’re scheduled to appear. People rarely get in lines when characters aren’t present because 99.9% of the people visiting have no idea which characters will be meeting. If you don’t end up arriving prior or close to Park opening, plan to stay through close because wait times will only ease after the Parade. With no evening entertainment to keep people around and restaurants that are vastly underrated, few people Park Hop in the afternoon. Take advantage of one or both of the less crowded times of day, use FASTPASS as much as possible in the late morning and afternoon, and tour efficiently and you should have an excellent day.

Epcot is recommended again today. We have a lot going on at the other Parks and nothing specific to draw crowds to Epcot. It’s a particularly excellent day to see IllumiNations and have dinner in the World Showcase because Magic Kingdom will be attracting most of the nighttime crowd. Despite the strong recommendation, you will still have the most success if you arrive prior to opening and head straight to Test Track, Sum of All Thrills, Mission: Space, and Soarin’ or follow a more compartmentalized two-day plan. Despite the recommendation, you’ll still run into 60+ minute waits at Test Track and Soarin’ in the afternoon. There’s just no way around that because both attractions are popular and have limited capacities. Thankfully, you’ll be well on your way to the other Future World attractions and World Showcase before those waits increase. If you don’t arrive early in the morning, plan to rely on FASTPASS at Soarin’ or Test Track. Soarin’ may make more sense because Test Track offers a single rider line with waits that are typically shorter than standby or FASTPASS. Do your best to move up to World Showcase right at 11am to stay ahead of crowds for as long as possible. Consider returning to Future World after 5pm when crowds decrease there and begin to creep up into World Showcase.

Hollywood Studios is the most recommended Park. We’re sandwiched in between yesterday’s moderately popular morning Extra Magic Hour and tomorrow’s extremely popular evening Extra Magic Hours. Magic Kingdom will be pulling most resort guests with its incredibly popular evening Extra Magic Hours. Despite the recommendation, it’s still essential that you arrive by 8:15am and head straight for Toy Story Mania, Rock ‘N’ Roller Coaster, Tower of Terror, and Star Tours. Make Toy Story Mania your priority because it will have 60+ minute afternoon waits. The only other problem most people run into is trying to schedule all of the stage shows that run on a set schedule. You may also want to prioritize characters that will have longer afternoon waits. The Toy Story characters across from Toy Story Mania tend to have the longest waits. Because they usually begin appearing at 9:15am, you’ll have time to ride Toy Story and then get in line for the characters around 9:10am. Sofia the First in Animation Courtyard begins meeting at 9:30am and is also very popular. Phineas & Ferb usually have the third longest lines in Hollywood Studios. They typically begin appearing at 9:30am as well. Check the week’s Times Guide to verify appearance times. Two other popular characters appear in the Animation Building in the Animation Courtyard. Sorcerer Mickey in particular has long afternoon waits and The Incredibles characters also tend to have decent lines. Plan to visit in the last hour they’re scheduled to appear. Finally, you’ll find some characters in the morning near Mickey’s Sorcerer’s Hat that won’t appear later in the afternoon. Daisy Duck, Donald, Chip, Dale, Goofy, Pluto, and Stitch are all common, but no specific character is guaranteed to appear. Stay for the second Fantasmic because it will be considerably less crowded and you won’t have to deal with two large sections reserved for Dining Package users. Overall, you can do well at the Studios if you arrive by 8:15am, but you’re looking at long lines and heavier crowds if you don’t arrive until 10:30am with everyone else.

Magic Kingdom is not recommended, though the morning from 9am – 11am and the late evening from 10:30pm – 3am will both be good times to tour. However, the afternoon will be busy enough that you won’t want to risk it unless you’re absolutely certain that you’ll take advantage of one or both of the recommended touring times and can’t visit on a “more recommended” day. Most Disney resort guests who will be headed to the Magic Kingdom will sleep in and arrive around 11am, in anticipation of staying until around 10pm. If you arrive prior to 9am, you can have a lot of success visiting the Fantasyland attractions and headlining Mountain rides. However, the Park will be busy from 12pm to 10pm as the bulk of Disney resort guests arrive en masse and stay through the evening entertainment. You’ll either want to take a break, Park Hop elsewhere, or plan to visit some of the less popular attractions for that time slot. The relatively late night Extra Magic Hours are also recommended. If you are staying for Extra Magic Hours, begin in Adventureland because most people will head to Tomorrowland and Fantasyland first. Next, move up through Frontierland and Liberty Square on your way to Tomorrowland. Save Fantasyland for last because most families will be long gone from the Park by 1:30am and Fantasyland will be low on crowds. It’s not uncommon for Peter Pan’s Flight to have a 60 minute wait in the afternoon and a ten minute or less wait at the end of evening Extra Magic Hours. Save Peter Pan, Winnie the Pooh, and Journey of the Little Mermaid for the very end of the night. You’ll find lower crowds on Tuesday and Wednesday of this coming week, but the morning and late night will both be good times to tour if you need an additional day at Magic Kingdom.

 

[rickdl]

thanks, but what makes easywdw crowd planner different from undercovertourist or touringplans or all other crowd planners?

Originally I thought they would likely all have the same recommendations. So just surprised that they differ. They each say they study crowds, do calculations and have high accuracy..but if they have differing crowd ratings / recommendations then obviously one has to be right and one has to be wrong?

 

[JimmyV]

thanks, but what makes easywdw crowd planner different from undercovertourist or touringplans or all other crowd planners?

I can't answer the question as to what makes easywdw different from UT, but I can say that more often than not, Easy and Touring Plans align, at least to some degree. One year we tracked both sites and they were complete opposites. TP said one thing and Easy said the exact opposite. My instincts told me that TP was right, so I made my plans based on that. Two weeks out, they were still opposite and I was nervous. Three days out, Easy adjusted its recommendations and they were spot on with TP, (and my instincts). So rather than drive myself batty with three (or four, or more) prediction sites, I stick to these two, and add in a healthy dose of my own experience and I am usually satisfied with the results. This is not an indictment of UT, as I have not used their crowd predictions. I just don't see the need to triangulate this decision making beyond the two sites that I trust. Paralysis by over-analysis can ensue.

 

[Mamiamjo]

I've used a few different sites as well. In the past I've used TGM (this was my first and for a while was my favorite site), UT, TP, Ride Max & EasyWDW for my park tour planning.
Not all sites update their ratings at the same time or frequency so at times different sites information may vary substantially.

 

[lugnut33]

My opinion is it's a roll of the dice no matter what park you pick. You just don't know day to day what the crowds will be like. Also, due to increases in guests, there is no slow time at all.

Good luck

 

[siskaren]

thanks, but what makes easywdw crowd planner different from undercovertourist or touringplans or all other crowd planners?

Well, as you can see from what LSUfan4444 quoted, Josh (the guy who writes easyWDW) explains why he recommends the parks that he does, as well as why he doesn't recommend the other parks.

 

[CanadianPaco]

I've used a few different sites as well. In the past I've used TGM (this was my first and for a while was my favorite site), UT, TP, Ride Max & EasyWDW for my park tour planning.
Not all sites update their ratings at the same time or frequency so at times different sites information may vary substantially.

I agree. I have used all of these as well. TP was really off (as they admit) last week alone!

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Well, as you can see from what LSUfan4444 quoted, Josh (the guy who writes easyWDW) explains why he recommends the parks that he does, as well as why he doesn't recommend the other parks.

Yep - I look at a few sites/apps, and Josh's site is on the list. I don't always agree with his logic, but at least I get to see it and decide for myself. With the other sites, you get their recommendation and are forced to take it on trust alone.

 

[floridashopper]

Is TP worth the money to subscribe? Their crowd calendar, "planner", etc.

 

[LilyWDW]

Is TP worth the money to subscribe? Their crowd calendar, "planner", etc.

I subscribe to get the "best days" (even though I also use EasyWDW and actually will follow Josh's advice over TP due to personal experience) and their app. Honestly, I would still pay it for access to the app.

Having said that, if the app isn't important to you, then I wouldn't pay the money for TP. I would use EasyWDW instead. It's free and, in my opinion as I have personally experienced in the past, more accurate and better updated. Plus, Josh is just an awesome guy with a greats sense of humor who spends a LOT of time in the parks!

 

[Tink-n-Belle]

Florida schools are on break in March... Since many locals live nearby they don't book hotels so it's really no way to predict who will show up during the week.

Florida res also have a great deal on tickets...they can use for 6 months vs. within 14 days like reg tixs. So they can go anytime....during January to June 8.

So depending how they calculate the crowds spring break puts a dapper on things.....plus colleges are out too and many college kids probably stay off site.

I went to disney last yr during spring break, and it wasn't too bad....but I always go during peak 8-9 levels due to school....so I have no idea what a level 1-2 is like.

Let us know what site is right! Thanks!

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I subscribe to get the "best days" (even though I also use EasyWDW and actually will follow Josh's advice over TP due to personal experience) and their app. Honestly, I would still pay it for access to the app.

Having said that, if the app isn't important to you, then I wouldn't pay the money for TP. I would use EasyWDW instead. It's free and, in my opinion as I have personally experienced in the past, more accurate and better updated. Plus, Josh is just an awesome guy with a greats sense of humor who spends a LOT of time in the parks!

I agree with this post 100%, and do the same thing for the same reason with respect TP.

 

[Simba07]

I like TP for customizing touring plans. They are sometimes off in the exact wait times but it does give a pretty good idea of how many attractions (and what attractions are feasible in, say, a single morning. But if all you want is crowd levels, I'd probably skip it. As one of the PPs said, its kind of a gamble no matter what.

 

[ThisIsMyName]

I found the same thing when I was planning for our trip last week.
I liked the easy one as it at least exaplained why.

The big wildcard the sites can not predict ahead of time is the weather. I'm not sure if there is a general "which park to go to if it rains, is cold or perfect weather". On our week we had gorgeous weather, pouring rain and also really cold/cloudy. At first I thought "Great a beautiful day. . but that seemed to really increase the crowds. The predicted low crowd day for MK was also the pouring rain day so yeah the park was WAY less crowded but I couldn't tell if the calendar had been right or if it was the weather.

I also "think" the parks were overall much more crowded. . .my theory from randomly talking to people was that because it has been such a horrible bad winter weather year a lot people pulled their kids out of school for last minute trips to escape (esp a ton of mid west people).

 

[LSUfan4444]

Yep - I look at a few sites/apps, and Josh's site is on the list. I don't always agree with his logic, but at least I get to see it and decide for myself. With the other sites, you get their recommendation and are forced to take it on trust alone.

I think anyone who just takes a calendar or touring plan and follows it blindly is making a mistake.

The best option (if you want to avoid higher crowds) is to understand the logic, and remain flexible.

Visiting parks the day after EMH, not the day of. If you visit a park with a special event (MSEP, a.m. EMH, etc) that is where you need to use your FP+ and plan to do high capacity rides. Making ADRs for lunch so that way you can always hop to another park in the evening if the one you are in is unexpectedly crowded, etc etc etc.

Not everyone needs to follow every detail, but understanding how and why to create a schedule and remain flexible is crucial.

 

[TheRustyScupper]

We're visiting Disney World from March 8 to 16, probably our 5th trip in past 7 years. An avid visitor to various crowd calendars to help us pick which park on which days of our trip to go . . .

1) We NEVER count on crowd day estimates.
2) There is a much simpler method . . .
. . . go to a park the day-after its EMH
. . . avoid MK on Saturdays since vacationers use their last day, and locals come out
. . . avoid MK on Monday, since new vacationers head usually there first

 

[MrInfinity]

The crowd calendars differ simply because they're opinions. Read them, see what they think, and decide for yourself. I've noticed they often differ. Several on my trip. I tend to like easywdw, tho his recommendations are not a whole lot more than common sense type things that most ppl probly already anticipate. Like, if you'd go for an EMH morning then use that time to your advantage. If you wouldn't use the early time then don't go that day. Or if there's no parade then ppl might wait till the next day.

Pick your schedule around what works for you, using the calendars for information.

Should you pay for one? Obviously no one can suggest this or not. If you'd enjoy it then sure. I wouldn't cuz I think there's enough free info out there to make my decisions.