This one is pretty interesting. Around $100 million sounds about right, but of course that's just my guess. I personally think it sounds like a dud, but I also know my personal tastes don't always match up with the masses.
I agree that $100 million would not be considered a success by Disney. This is especially true if we accept the notion that Disney is trying to gain leverage in its Pixar negotiations (or any other negotiations for that matter). I can't see how anything less than $150 million would have any impact at all in that context.
Another interesting twist is how this will relate to Disney's future efforts. There's a school of thought that says if CL flops, Disney will scrap its future internal productions. That seems to make sense, especially given how they've already cutback to one studio.
Of course the inverse to that is if CL hits a certain level of "success", then internal feature animation will forge ahead.
When you factor in that Valiant, a product of the "other" distribution deal, was a dud, it complicates things further.
Maybe I'm naive, but I can't see Disney shutting down internal animation without an agreement with Pixar. Some say an agreement will be reached, but as is always the case, we won't know for sure until it happens.
Maybe I'm cynical, but I think that if a deal with Pixar is reached, internal animation is in serious trouble. In this scenario, I think CL would need to bring in AT LEAST $100 million, and maybe quite a bit more to save the department.
As I said, its interesting.
PS- In my mind, its a given that "CGI vs. hand drawn", in and of itself, has very little impact on a film's popularity these days. I think there was some of that as CGI was ramping up, but now, it seems to make little difference.
But I agree with Greg that there are those within Disney (and in other companies as well) that try to pin a film's take at least partially on the medium. After all, for them, its a lot better than admitting they just failed at making a good movie.