Cheapest DVC property per point? Look at annual fees

[DVCcurious]

I'd written something about the the original analysis failing to factor in the # of points per night at the different resorts, but I see that was covered on page 2.

If you want the cheapest experience possible buy at SSR and stay at OKW. If you can get AKV value so much the better, but you can consistently get OKW at 7 months. There's really no need to rehash the arguments over and over. SSR purchase + OKW stay will always yield the best monetary return on investment and that's not going to change.

But there's so much more to "value" than money.

I bought BLT as my second resort a month ago. I paid $105 per point. I could've got SSR at $80 and saved $25 * 250 points = well I can't do the math in my head, but something like $6000. The reason I did that is because I want a 10 minute WALK to my resort after I leave MK, I don't want a 10 minute wait in line followed by a 20 minute BUS ride. For me, the "value" of BLT is so much more than SSR because I hate the buses so much. Apparently I'm willing to spend $6,000 / 45 years = $150 per vacation in order to walk to and from MK rather than ride a bus. So that walk is worth more than $150 per trip to me or I would've bought SSR. But I HATE the buses so I'm more than willing to pay $150 to avoid them during my vacation.

If your #1 concern is money then stay at All Star Music during free dining.

If your #1 concern is "value" then there is a lot more to factor in than pure dollars out of pocket.

 

[dvcdream4fld]

Let's add another monkey wrench. I fairly certain that rack room rate at BLT is higher than OKW. I think if we are talking about savings than maybe BLT maybe the better choice. Let's face it, by buying into DVC you are paying upfront for savings in the future. If you then actually look at savings then maybe even the point price for accommodations at GFV would represent higher savings $ compared to other lower cost DVC accommodations.

 

[crisi]

I'd written something about the the original analysis failing to factor in the # of points per night at the different resorts, but I see that was covered on page 2.

If you want the cheapest experience possible buy at SSR and stay at OKW. If you can get AKV value so much the better, but you can consistently get OKW at 7 months. There's really no need to rehash the arguments over and over. SSR purchase + OKW stay will always yield the best monetary return on investment and that's not going to change.

But there's so much more to "value" than money.

I bought BLT as my second resort a month ago. I paid $105 per point. I could've got SSR at $80 and saved $25 * 250 points = well I can't do the math in my head, but something like $6000. The reason I did that is because I want a 10 minute WALK to my resort after I leave MK, I don't want a 10 minute wait in line followed by a 20 minute BUS ride. For me, the "value" of BLT is so much more than SSR because I hate the buses so much. Apparently I'm willing to spend $6,000 / 45 years = $150 per vacation in order to walk to and from MK rather than ride a bus. So that walk is worth more than $150 per trip to me or I would've bought SSR. But I HATE the buses so I'm more than willing to pay $150 to avoid them during my vacation.

If your #1 concern is money then stay at All Star Music during free dining.

If your #1 concern is "value" then there is a lot more to factor in than pure dollars out of pocket.

If your BLT points were used for an OKW stay, and then you sold them in fifteen years - you might end up with the maximum financial return. SSR points are somewhat less likely to hold their value than a well priced BLT contract. And because BLT rooms are so expensive point wise, I'd expect dues per point to always be a little cheaper than anywhere else

But, I didn't buy DVC for maximum financial return either. Or I'd actually be offsite bidding on a Skyauction timeshare for my vacations. When it comes to spending your disposable income on luxuries there is always an odd disconnect for me when we start discussing financial return - value conversations make sense - financial return conversations? - stay home and invest in a Vanguard index fund. Once you decide to vacation, its all a matter of exchanging money for subjective value. Spending more to stay on the monorail (or walk to MK) sounds like its probably a good value to me (I prefer the Epcot resorts myself, but the monorail for money makes sense as a trade objectively).

 

[Joshuy]

People have brought up great points: too many points, and too many people to mention.

I've updated my spreadsheet.

For 2015, if you take the point chart into account and the price per point that I calculated, then you can see what you get for your money.
For dream season 1 BR for a week with a mid level view (ie Lake view at Bay Lake) and you use the points bought at that resort for that week the cost would look like this
1. SSR $1550 per week in a 1 BR during dream season
2. OKW $1570
3. AKV $1900
4. BLT $1925
5. Hilton $1938
6. Vero $2176
7. WLV $2267
8. BWV $2280
9. GCV $2290
10. BCV $2354
11. Aulani $2792
12. VGF $3063

This list shows how ridiculously high the VGF point chart is. So this ranking takes into account initial cost per point, annual fee contribution and the differences in point chart. It introduces the variables of time of year (season), and view. If you wanted the cheapest 1BR by resort, it would look different because BLT has a standard view room etc.

It would be interesting to flip it and do #days/$1000 or something like that but then you'd have to pick days of the week to compare.

Eventually I'd like to fill in the blanks on % saving compared to cash.
So for example, 1 week at BLT during dream season in lake view rooms costs
Studio $3819, 1 BR $5426, 2BR $8505, GV (didn't check)
Cost based on #points x $7/point
Studio $987, 1 BR $1925, 2 BR $2492, GV $5201
Cost savings as a percentage
Studio 74%, 1 BR 65%, 2 BR 71%

Actually, this may be a waste of time because cash rates for DVC properties are a little like MSRP right? They're not real prices so the savings is like getting 80% off jewelry at a jewelry store. The regular price isn't real. Maybe it's better just to focus on Cost per week rather than cost savings per week.

And yes at the end of the day, we bought at BLT so we could walk to magic kingdom (that's the only reason-my analysis made me feel better but we would have bought there regardless). I agree with those who said cost isn't everything. If cost is a big deal, I would suggest renting, don't buy. I just like figuring things out for fun. I like to know my concrete costs when I'm spending money so i can get a sense of if it's worth it to me.

1 more edit: using SSR points ($6.83/pt) at VGF for the same week would cost $2022. Opportunity to do that may be slim? so the above rankings includes the cost of the 11 month window opportunity.

2nd edit. I looked at http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3349393 by dvccurious. Captures the nuances very nicely.

 

[skier_pete]

I love these types of conversations.

There was a similar thread recently on most cost effective DVC, HERE where a similar calculation was done by someone. As part of that, I ranked the DVC resorts by perceived value, and used the buy-in cost, maintenance fees, length of contract and room cost (points per room) to determine what I felt were the best "values". I won't get into the details here because you can click over there and read it.

I found it interesting that both there and here it was demonstrated that BLT has one of the best "values" for the money in terms of the cost of points over the long-term. However, it ignores the cost per point of the rooms. Yes, if you always stayed in one of the "standard" rooms at BLT, that would be a good value to own there. However, the Lake or MK view rooms cost so many more points than most other properties that you are still paying a "premium" if you are staying there. Now, if you are buying BLT points to just use them to stay elsewhere, then you might as well buy SSR points. The BLT maintenance fees have been climbing much faster than SSRs, and so if it's all about using your points across multiple resorts, SSR is by far and away your best value.

As others have pointed out - buy at SSR and stay at OKW is the "best value" in DVC.

For AKV are you assuming value room point cost? Give that there are only 6? Value rooms it is not reasonable to assume that a AKV owner will be able to get a value room. So I think they should be lower in the rankings.

I think there are only 5 or 6 concierge rooms. I believe there are 20 2 bedroom lock offs. I could be wrong, but, I was pretty sure it was higher than 6.

there are 5 concierge 2BR lockoffs.

to add to the unsure confusion, i think there are something like 10-12 2BR value lockoffs with another handful of dedicated value studios. i'm pretty sure that there are a maximum of 18 value studios but the details are blurry...at any point, i agree that it's probably better to base AKV calculations on standard view villas (if that is really what you would prefer to book) rather than value villas.

Since I own at AKV - I can answer this as none of these responses are quite correct.

There are 8 dedicated value studios (4 pool view, 4 savannah view) and 10 2-bedroom lock offs (4 pool, 4 savannah, 2 parking lot), giving a total of 18 potential value studios. The value rooms are much easier to get than the concierge rooms (of which there are I believe 6) but still need to be generally booked close to the 11-month mark to get into the studios.

While I don't know that I would use the value villas as a standard points rate at AKL (I would use the standard villas) I DO consider having these rooms available as a DVC member of this resort to be a nice "bonus" that none of the other resorts have. In particular, I keep thinking if I ever wanted to "splurge" on a 1-bedroom, this would be the perfect option, as the smaller rooms size I would think wouldn't be as noticeable with the 1-bedrooms if you are used to staying in a studio. Plus you have a 44 % chance (8/18) of getting a Savannah View room for the "value" price. (And an 11% chance of looking at a parking lot.)

 

[Dean]

I love these types of conversations. There was a similar thread recently on most cost effective DVC, HERE where a similar calculation was done by someone. As part of that, I ranked the DVC resorts by perceived value, and used the buy-in cost, maintenance fees, length of contract and room cost (points per room) to determine what I felt were the best "values". I won't get into the details here because you can click over there and read it. I found it interesting that both there and here it was demonstrated that BLT has one of the best "values" for the money in terms of the cost of points over the long-term. However, it ignores the cost per point of the rooms. Yes, if you always stayed in one of the "standard" rooms at BLT, that would be a good value to own there. However, the Lake or MK view rooms cost so many more points than most other properties that you are still paying a "premium" if you are staying there. Now, if you are buying BLT points to just use them to stay elsewhere, then you might as well buy SSR points. The BLT maintenance fees have been climbing much faster than SSRs, and so if it's all about using your points across multiple resorts, SSR is by far and away your best value. As others have pointed out - buy at SSR and stay at OKW is the "best value" in DVC. Since I own at AKV - I can answer this as none of these responses are quite correct. There are 8 dedicated value studios (4 pool view, 4 savannah view) and 10 2-bedroom lock offs (4 pool, 4 savannah, 2 parking lot), giving a total of 18 potential value studios. The value rooms are much easier to get than the concierge rooms (of which there are I believe 6) but still need to be generally booked close to the 11-month mark to get into the studios. While I don't know that I would use the value villas as a standard points rate at AKL (I would use the standard villas) I DO consider having these rooms available as a DVC member of this resort to be a nice "bonus" that none of the other resorts have. In particular, I keep thinking if I ever wanted to "splurge" on a 1-bedroom, this would be the perfect option, as the smaller rooms size I would think wouldn't be as noticeable with the 1-bedrooms if you are used to staying in a studio. Plus you have a 44 % chance (8/18) of getting a Savannah View room for the "value" price. (And an 11% chance of looking at a parking lot.)

I've said before that there really are 2 issues here. One is buying the points to use here and there and the other to buy to get access to specific resorts and options. It's is my opinion that few, if any, new members (even those with Disney experience and who investigate over months to yrs) will get enough benefit of a given higher end resort to make the higher buy in worthwhile. And if they do, it'll likely be by pure luck. Thus each individual has to decide (best guess) how many points they need based on where they think they'll want to stay over time and how much benefit they THINK they'll get out of a specialty item (AKV value or concierge, BWV value, etc). That's where the individual situation takes over and why all we can do is the basic general math applied to any situation as best we know it. I'd add an idea I've shared before, that those looking to buy in often let the emotions control their decisions and they often overbuy in terms of resort and number of points.

 

[dvcdream4fld]

Really good analysis. Thanks for your efforts. I am sure you could dissect the costs further, but at some point, as the last post stated. A vacation is an emotional decision, but I think we can all see that some dvc cost more than others but there are potential savings for everyone with a little research and good financial judgement.

 

[Joshuy]

One last summary to accommodate a variety of values and perspectives so people can choose what's best for them.

Ranking #1: Cheapest cost per initial point (on resale)

1. VB $59
2. HH $65
3. OKW $67
4. SSR $75
5. BWV $79
6. AKV $79
7. VWL $80
8. BCV $93
9. BLT $100
10. Aulani $105
11. Californian $132
12. Floridian $145

Use this ranking if initial cost is THE major factor/limitation in your purchase (i.e. you are financing)

Ranking #2: Cheapest total cost per point (Initial cost/yrs on contract + annual fee)

1. SSR $6.83
2. BLT $7.00
3. AKV $7.85
4. Californian $7.87
5. OKW $7.89
6. Floridian $8.37
7. Aulani $8.67
8. HH $8.69
9. VWL $8.89
10. BWV $8.94
11. BCV $9.23
12. VB $9.94

Use this list if initial cost is not an issue and you care most about having points but don’t care where you stay. This takes into account annual fees.

Ranking #3: Total Cost over life of contract x 100 points (Total cost per point x years on contract)

1. OKW $21,303 over 27 yr
2. VWL $24,003 over 27 yr
3. BWV $24,138 over 27 yr
4. BCV $24,921 over 27 yr
5. HH $26,463 over 27 yr
6. SSR $26,637 over 39 yr
7. VB $26,838 over 27 yr
8. BLT $31,500 over 45 yr
9. AKV $32,970 over 42 yr
10. Cal $35,415 over 45 yr
11. Aulani $40,749 over 47 yr
12. VGF $41,013 over 49 yr

Use this column if years on contract is a major issue (i.e. you want a longer contract or you want a shorter contract) or the total amount of money you feel like giving Disney.

Ranking #4: Cost for a 1 week stay in a 1BR own resort (Total cost per point x points for 1 week on point chart during dream season-mid level room)

1. SSR $1550
2. OKW $1570
3. AKV $1900
4. BLT $1925
5. HH $1938
6. Vero $2176
7. VWL $2267
8. BWV $2280
9. Cal $2290
10. BCV $2354
11. Aulani $2792
12. Flor $3063

This gives you a sense of price premium for booking at 11 months. If you want a specific resort, it gives you a sense of how much extra you are paying just to stay at that specific place. This takes into account the variation in point charts.

Ranking #5: Favorite place
Whatever you decide
Like others have posted, cost is not the major way a person may decide. I bought at BLT because it was close to MK. But I think it is nice to know how much (extra) you are paying for your favorite place vs second favorite place etc.

 

[dsnydaddy]

Excellent summary.

 

[MountainMouse]

I like the summary. So many ways to spin the numbers, nice to get some of the more important and popular summarized in one post. Thanks!

 

[::danielle::]

Joshuy, thank you so much for that summary. I was on the fence about a couple of properties. This information helped swing me towards one of them.

 

[Joshuy]

Very cool! Just out of curiosity, would you mind sharing how it helped you decide? Thanks
josh

 

[cayman01]

Using Joshuy 100 point benchmark an interesting idea is to double up your points, then use half and rent half each year. If you have the financial ability and discipline this is the way to go. Basing my theory on getting $12/pt renting you really make out. Using Joshuy's total cost chart you come out with something like this:

SSR costs $166 per 100 point stay for length of ownership
BLT. $200
AKV. $370
OKW. $378
GF. $474
AUL. $534
VWL $578
BWV. $588
BCV. $646

I didn't do the other three as these seam to hold the most interest.

 

[Joshuy]

Just as an exercise, I decided to think about if I narrowed my preferred choice on DVC properties to two, how would I decide to buy two contracts vs just a lot of points at one contract and just stay at the other. I think the obvious answer is to buy contracts at both due to the 11 month window, but the other thing to consider is cost of course. So I made this table.

Top row is from cheapest to most expensive point. Left column is from fewest points for a week to most number of points for a week.

My conclusion is:
Best to trade from: SSR, BLT, AKV, Cali. (ie load up on points)
Maybe: OKW, VGF, Aulani.
Worst to trade from: HH, VWL, BWV, BCV, VB (2 contracts are suggested)


Best to trade to: VB, BCV, BWV, VWL, HH. (Load up on points at primary property)
Maybe: VGF, OKW.
Worst to trade to: SSR, BLT, AK, Cali (get two contracts)

 

[crisi]

Just as an exercise, I decided to think about if I narrowed my preferred choice on DVC properties to two, how would I decide to buy two contracts vs just a lot of points at one contract and just stay at the other. I think the obvious answer is to buy contracts at both due to the 11 month window, but the other thing to consider is cost of course. So I made this table.

Top row is from cheapest to most expensive point. Left column is from fewest points for a week to most number of points for a week.

My conclusion is:
Best to trade from: SSR, BLT, AKV, Cali. (ie load up on points)
Maybe: OKW, VGF, Aulani.
Worst to trade from: HH, VWL, BWV, BCV, VB (2 contracts are suggested)


Best to trade to: VB, BCV, BWV, VWL, HH. (Load up on points at primary property)
Maybe: VGF, OKW.
Worst to trade to: SSR, BLT, AK, Cali (get two contracts)

And there, in a nutshell, is the issue. We are BWV owners and have almost always stayed at BWV - often over Food and Wine - usually either Standard or Boardwalk View. Once a Grand Villa. Those reservations aren't easy to trade into. We enjoy the resort (I also like VWL and HHI, but I would rather not go to WDW than stay at SSR or OKW in most of my use cases). Trading into HHI over the Summer is very difficult as is Vero. BCV almost always is completely full shortly after the seven month window - and if you want a two bedroom with two queens, you'd better own or be really lucky.

Buy what you can afford where you won't be disappointed to end up - if thats SSR, you are lucky - sometimes you'll be able to make value trades, sometimes you won't. But if you dislike the resort, don't buy it hoping to trade into a resort where it costs a lot more to own - the people who bought that resort didn't buy it because it was cheap and they weren't going to stay there - they made a decision to spend more - on points upfront, on dues over time - sometimes both, and are likely to use their points at home, making those resorts more difficult to book for non owners at seven months.

DVC owners don't tend to be stupid.

 

[Joshuy]

oops, i guess I didn't know how to post photos.

so red means you're paying more than just owning points at that property. Green means you're paying less.

I think buying with the purpose of trading only makes sense if you like your primary resort.

 

[crisi]

I think buying with the purpose of trading only makes sense if you like your primary resort.

I'd say buying with the purpose of trading only makes sense if you understand the risks involved in that scenario and don't mind staying at the resorts that tend to have sufficient seven month availability. You don't have to like "home" - there is probably availability at several DVC resorts - but there might not be availablility at seven months at the ones that cost the most to own.

i.e. if you don't mind staying at SSR, OKW and VAKL, you can own anywhere, almost always those resorts are open. And if you are flexible, you'll probably get to stay in all the resorts over time.

But if your heart would be broken if you can't stay at BWV or BCV for Food and Wine, if you need to see Wishes from your room at BLT, if you want your Grand Floridian room for absolute sure every year, if you want to go to HHI regularly in the Summer, visit Disneyland or go to Aulani in June - AND you can afford it, spending more for those points over time will keep you from being disappointed in the system. Or, alternatively, use cash, rent points from an owner, or find some other way to have flexibility. Getting what you want when you want it is going to cost money - how much money depends on how many compromises you are willing to make.

 

[Joshuy]

hhmm... after staring at this, i thought it might be more useful/clarifying but I think it isn't. If the property costs more per point it isn't good to trade from them, if it costs less per point, it's probably a good idea to trade from them but there's little correlation between that and popularity I think.

Anyway, another attempt of mine to try to make cost a little more transparent. Maybe this last one wasn't to helpful.

 

[Sur]

The pattern predates Lewis. Its pretty much been the case that estimated dues have always been on the low side and there are a few years of above average adjustments after sales finish. Sometimes they are barely a blip, sometimes they are Aulani and get people fired.

I don't really believe this. Any corporate world firings I've seen had payoffs for confidentiality and no one really knew the correct reason for the person being dismissed, other than high up management, and they certainly wouldn't share the information with the masses.

 

[Dean]

I think buying with the purpose of trading only makes sense if you like your primary resort.

Not necessarily. Many have bought SSR (and others) and never stayed at their home resort. One needs to consider their preferences, travel patterns and risk tolerance. Given that most buying in don't know how they'll actually use it and that they will likely want to try many things over time, buying a high end option and trading down is rarely the best choice for new members from a $$$ standpoint.