Chances of future cruises

[undfan]

So . . . what are the chances that the November, 2020 Panama Canal cruise will actually happen?

 

[Happy99]

It is anyone's guess at this time, no one knows.

 

[TRTRguy]

Hoping it happens because that means the Wonder is back to San Diego in time for my October cruise.

 

[gilsan]

I think it is highly unlikely since the Wonder is already on the East coast.

 

[Chemist]

She already did her Eastbound Panama Canal transit this year.

Unfortunately she did it a few months early and with no passengers.

 

[DCLDVC1]

0%

 

[Husker Mike]

I wouldn't say 0%...but since they'd have to schedule a new westbound cruise, it's probably 1%.

Of course, I'm also of the opinion that the chances of ANY Disney cruises operating this year is in the 10%-20% range. If you believe that Disney will be cruising in August, there's a very good chance they
d run the Wonder back through the canal.

 

[DCL Repeaters]

Another vote for 0%.

 

[Firstof3]

fair chance, is my guess. They are still selling cabins on it. If there was zero chance they would move the ship back over to the west coast in time for the cruise they would have at the bare minimum closed booking by now. I have also seen some simple math where they can make at the very least a small profit even with the extra transits counted in.

 

[I_love_Cruising]

How about making a list with all the clues we have.

Here is what I can think of:

+ still selling cabins
+ not yet cancelled
+


- Wonder already crossed the canal, so the she would have to cross back without passengers
- long cruise, most cruise companies seem to start with shorter itineraries
- we don't know if California / Texas will open up
- don't know if foreign ports will open up
- Wonder is still trying to get CM home
- Travel restrictions could prevent CM to get to the ship
- CDC has not yet allowed cruising
- CDC has not published future cruise safety measures
- USA still has travel restrictions for foreigners ( tourists and CM ? )
-

 

[_auroraborealis_]

So . . . what are the chances that the November, 2020 Panama Canal cruise will actually happen?

Basically zero. Transiting the canal now is a very bad sign. It's well over $200k to transit a cruise ship even empty. So while already in money-loss mode, they just paid that out, and would need to do it again to return. While the third transit would at least have passengers aboard, the margins of the WBPC and the cruises still uncancelled out of SD are unlikely to hold up to fully re-staffing the Wonder and paying for the three transits - and that's before we talk the fuel in use now and the fuel for an empty return.

And $200k is generously low, TBH: https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/new...ority-proposes-higher-tariffs-passenger-ships

 

[ajo]

The Wonder would be heading back to the west coast for a limited fall season, not the usual spring and very profitable Alaska summer season. The cost of transiting the Canal again and the limited cruises they would be doing out of SD makes it seem less likely it will head back West.

 

[yowcruiser]

I use "special offers" as a potential clue. Traditionally, October and early November cruises on the Wonder and the Magic have some sort of special offers available as occupancy rates tend to be low to start with. Over the last few weeks, any special offers for the Wonder and the Magic had been removed for that time period. The Magic is currently showing special rates for November/December, with only the Dream and Fantasy attempting to lure guests back with offers in August and September. Any special offers for the Wonder have simply vanished. Although no one knows, what I am reading into this is that the Fantasy may be the 1st ship back with passengers with the Dream not too far behind. The Magic is likely skipping its NYC run before resuming trips out of Florida and the Wonder is not back in action any time soon. Reading between the lines, DCL has infrastructure in PC and to a lesser extent Miami which would allow them to better control the guest experience and implement whatever measure they want to. Much harder to do so in a "contract" location such as SD, Galveston, NYC...

Now, it could just be that those ships are closed to desired occupancy level, but I highly doubt that... Also, the fact that DCL is still accepting reservations could be a sign that something is still planed for the Classic ships.

As others have said... not 0%... but not very high... based on what is currently known - but things can change really quickly...

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Dream and Wonder are currently Red under CDC crew protocols. (provisional, but even if it is just filing the paperwork, not a great sign.) Fantasy is Provisionally Green, but crew reembark is going to be an extended process to stay that way, as any crew that embarks has to quarantine for 14 days and any positive tests restarts a 28 day period to be clean.

Fantasy has the best odds at this point, but the 14 day quarantine and any potential positive tests shoving a functional date a minimum of +28 days out means that for August sailing, they would need to be bringing crew on board now. They are not.

 

[disneylove69]

Basically zero. Transiting the canal now is a very bad sign. It's well over $200k to transit a cruise ship even empty. So while already in money-loss mode, they just paid that out, and would need to do it again to return. While the third transit would at least have passengers aboard, the margins of the WBPC and the cruises still uncancelled out of SD are unlikely to hold up to fully re-staffing the Wonder and paying for the three transits - and that's before we talk the fuel in use now and the fuel for an empty return.

And $200k is generously low, TBH: https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/new...ority-proposes-higher-tariffs-passenger-ships

When we did the Panama Captins said it cost Disney a million to cross.

 

[disneylove69]

I have a cruise in October and know its not going. CDC is expected to cancel cruises til 2022.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

I have a cruise in October and know its not going. CDC is expected to cancel cruises til 2022.

Where did you see that?

 

[disneylove69]

Where did you see that?

Seen many industry articles. Also person has friends in CDC. I hop not as I have a booked cruise.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

When we did the Panama Captins said it cost Disney a million to cross.

It is a bit cheaper with an empty ship at a non-prime time. Ships pay extra for the fancy daytime transit at the passenger friendly time.

When they are empty and show for first available, the tariff is calculated differently.

Still probably about a half mil tho. I was being generously low with my estimate just to show the scale of doing three

 

[mmouse37]

This is our dilemma....we are booked with another couple for the PC cruise this Fall and just got the final payment notice from our TA. One part of me wants to pay the balance and hope for the best and another part of me wants to just cancel and get my deposit back. I honestly don't think they will sail but a little part of my brain says pay it off and if they cancel and offer that FCC is could really help with a Greece cruise in the future. Oh what to do, what to do.

I also don't want to tie up thousands more on something that I may change my mind again about doing. If DCL sails and the virus rears its ugly head again and I then don't want to sail for 14 days I don't want to be stuck if the cancellation policy isn't generous. We weren't thrilled with the ports to begin with and were on the fence about cancelling but now with being locked up for 3 months wanting to take a vacation at this point has me looking forward to this cruise.

MJ