CDC Director: Impending Doom

[Nabas]

Everyone that I know that is over 65 including my parents have had both their vaccines, DH and I both just got our first shot, pretty much all of our friends and family have gotten it or not available to their age group yet. One couple that we know is refusing to get it, other than that pretty much everyone we know is on board to get it and move on... Even our friends families are all getting it...

My oldest brother is in his 70s and only got his first shot this week.

Of course, he's retired and just finished spending a month on a Caribbean island.

Oh, the sacrifices we make...

 

[GAN]

And a higher number of positive cases doesn't necessarily mean an over burdened hospital. That's my point... you want to look at a single data point and use that to correlate that things are getting worse. I disagree with that. I don't care if you look at the percentage, the hospitalizations, deaths, etc, you need to look at SOMETHING other than a single data point. Case numbers can go up ten fold, but if the number of people going into the hospital or dying doesn't increase at the same rate, is it as important?

If you have 5% of people infected one week, and the following week you still have 5% people infected, but you tested more, it's nothing but fear mongering to say "we've had a 50% increase in our case numbers!".

First of all, I never said more cases means an overburdened hospital -I said that having 3000 cases is better than having 5000 cases THAT MIGHT NEED a bed. You have a habit of twisting what I say -even though I'm sure you're a great person. To answer your question ...if cases go up tenfold and the number of people in the hospital or dead stays the same..it is as important. Because it's likely that a percentage of them will develop some type of long-term effect. I have a friend with Vertigo and another on oxygen, another that has no taste or smell for the last 6-months. A study of covid survivors who died weeks/months after being cleared was looked at ....what they are noticing is that they were showing signs of dark spots on their brain(dead areas). These types of long-term issues will put a strain on our healthcare for years to come. So people saying, "I survived covid, see that" really doesn't do any of us much good long-term.

A year ago, it was all just a hoax. Now, most normal people would say ...well, it wasn't a hoax after all(many are friends of mine). So a year later, we have people(most likely the same people) saying they're trying to control us and just painting a portrait of gloom and doom. I guarantee 95% of these people have no medical or scientific background, but yet they question people who have dedicated their entire life helping others in the medical field. It's beyond laughable ...most probably could barely get out of high school!

I'm not arguing with you personally, so hopefully you don't see it that way. I get shot #2 on April 19th and will be planning a trip or two to WDW, which is why most us are here. I'll buy you a beer and we can start solving all of the other problems in the world! LOL

 

[godisney14]

The on and off relationship some have with the CDC is amusing. When CDC’s comment is in disagreement with someone’s preconceived notion or bias, the “CDC is wrong!” When a CDC’s comment supports one’s thinking, it’s “listen to the CDC.”

The life of a public health official.

 

[KittyKitty]

I'll buy you a beer and we can start solving all of the other problems in the world! LOL

Ha! That reminded me when I was in my 20's a pitcher of Margaritas could solve the World's problems.

 

[sam_gordon]

First of all, I never said more cases means an overburdened hospital -I said that having 3000 cases is better than having 5000 cases THAT MIGHT NEED a bed. You have a habit of twisting what I say -even though I'm sure you're a great person. To answer your question ...if cases go up tenfold and the number of people in the hospital or dead stays the same..it is as important. Because it's likely that a percentage of them will develop some type of long-term effect. I have a friend with Vertigo and another on oxygen, another that has no taste or smell for the last 6-months. A study of covid survivors who died weeks/months after being cleared was looked at ....what they are noticing is that they were showing signs of dark spots on their brain(dead areas). These types of long-term issues will put a strain on our healthcare for years to come. So people saying, "I survived covid, see that" really doesn't do any of us much good long-term.

A year ago, it was all just a hoax. Now, most normal people would say ...well, it wasn't a hoax after all(many are friends of mine). So a year later, we have people(most likely the same people) saying they're trying to control us and just painting a portrait of gloom and doom. I guarantee 95% of these people have no medical or scientific background, but yet they question people who have dedicated their entire life helping others in the medical field. It's beyond laughable ...most probably could barely get out of high school!

I'm not arguing with you personally, so hopefully you don't see it that way. I get shot #2 on April 19th and will be planning a trip or two to WDW, which is why most us are here. I'll buy you a beer and we can start solving all of the other problems in the world! LOL

I'm not intentionally twisting what you say. The only point I've tried to make in this discussion that going around like Chicken Little saying "we've had a 65% increase in cases over a week!" does nothing more than focus on the "bad", and IMO, is not a true indication whether things are bad or not. You need to look at that increase in cases IN REGARDS TO OTHER DATA POINTS. Focusing on a single data point, whether that's cases, deaths, hospitalizations, or yes, even percent positive is not good. That's it.

If you've tested the same amount (or less) of people and seen a 65% increase in positives, that's very bad.
If you've tested 65% more people and gotten a 65% increase in positives, that's expected (IMO).
If you've doubled your testing numbers and gotten a 65% increase in positives, that's good.

The 65% really doesn't mean much on it's own.

 

[RamblingMad]

So my takeaway this week is to not go to MI, NY, NJ, or FL.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Well this is just incorrect. We are weeks away not months. At this rate by end of May we will be at 75% fully vaccinated.

The end of May is 2 months away, not weeks. And the projections I look at have us ~60% at the end of May.

Feel free to post data or sources saying otherwise.

 

[VandVsmama]

The end of May is 2 months away, not weeks. And the projections I look at have us ~60% at the end of May.

Feel free to post data or sources saying otherwise.

8 weeks. So yes, it's literally weeks away.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

8 weeks. So yes, it's literally weeks away.

It's also 59 days away. Do you want to say it's literally days away also?

 

[katie01]

Well this is just incorrect. We are weeks away not months. At this rate by end of May we will be at 75% fully vaccinated.

this is good news, but I wonder what percentage of the population is under age 16? I know 12-15 year olds may be approved for a vaccine before school starts in the fall, but the studies on kids under 12 aren’t in yet, so it could be quite awhile for them. While most in this age group won’t get very sick from COVID, and many will be asymptomatic, I do have concerns for these kids, knowing there are even long haulers in that group. I have a 14 year old who has taken things very seriously to protect her parents and grandparents and all those who are vulnerable, so I hope others will look out for her and those other kids too

 

[snappy]

this is good news, but I wonder what percentage of the population is under age 16? I know 12-15 year olds may be approved for a vaccine before school starts in the fall, but the studies on kids under 12 aren’t in yet, so it could be quite awhile for them. While most in this age group won’t get very sick from COVID, and many will be asymptomatic, I do have concerns for these kids, knowing there are even long haulers in that group. I have a 14 year old who has taken things very seriously to protect her parents and grandparents and all those who are vulnerable, so I hope others will look out for her and those other kids too

Just wanted to say congrats for having a 14 year old who is so responsible. Obviously raised right!

 

[AvidDisReader]

The end of May is 2 months away, not weeks. And the projections I look at have us ~60% at the end of May.

Feel free to post data or sources saying otherwise.

8 weeks, so yes weeks away. When you say months that implies 3 or more months. Math does not seem to be your strong point as if you look at the projections it will be closer to 75% fully vaccinated.

 

[DisneyTarheel]

The on and off relationship some have with the CDC is amusing. When CDC’s comment is in disagreement with someone’s preconceived notion or bias, the “CDC is wrong!” When a CDC’s comment supports one’s thinking, it’s “listen to the CDC.”

The life of a public health official.

I think it can depend on how much “agency capture“ is occurring, particularly for a place like the CDC. That can certainly create a bit of a yo-yo appearance and inconsistent messaging. Of course, science itself can lead to inconsistent messaging, because, you know, the whole scientific-method and evolving hypothesis thing.

 

[AvidDisReader]

this is good news, but I wonder what percentage of the population is under age 16? I know 12-15 year olds may be approved for a vaccine before school starts in the fall, but the studies on kids under 12 aren’t in yet, so it could be quite awhile for them. While most in this age group won’t get very sick from COVID, and many will be asymptomatic, I do have concerns for these kids, knowing there are even long haulers in that group. I have a 14 year old who has taken things very seriously to protect her parents and grandparents and all those who are vulnerable, so I hope others will look out for her and those other kids too

I actually tried to look this up, and what I found was 60 million people are age 14 or younger.

 

[dvcgirl67]

So my takeaway this week is to not go to MI, NY, NJ, or FL.

lol...pretty much. I just heard that my town's hospital stopped allowing visitors again...as of today, due to rising Covid admissions.

 

[RamblingMad]

The end of May is 2 months away, not weeks. And the projections I look at have us ~60% at the end of May.

Feel free to post data or sources saying otherwise.

Not possible. If you vaccinate 100% of the population that’s 18+, you end up only getting to about 74%. Only 70% of the adults in this country are expected to get it. That gets you to about 49ish percent. The curve will start to flatten over the coming weeks for vaccinations for adults. You might get another point or two for the 16 and 17 year olds.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Not possible. If you vaccinate 100% of the population that’s 18+, you end up only getting to about 74%. Only 70% of the adults in this country are expected to get it. That gets you to about 49ish percent. The curve will start to flatten over the coming weeks for vaccinations for adults. You might get another point or two for the 16 and 17 year olds.

That is again is totally incorrect. Do the math. We have 155 million already with at least one shot, there are 5 more weeks to get the first shot so you can get the second shot in 8 weeks. 5 weeks x 7=35 days. The US is averaging 3 million shots a day. 35x3=105 million, so 105 million and 155 million already who have received shots=260 million, divide by 330 million people =78%. Maybe there will be some anti vaxxers, but I do not think it is nearly as great as 30 percent. Math does happen to be my strong point.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

8 weeks, so yes weeks away. When you say months that implies 3 or more months. Math does not seem to be your strong point as if you look at the projections it will be closer to 75% fully vaccinated.

That is again is totally incorrect. Do the math. We have 155 million already with at least one shot, there are 5 more weeks to get the first shot so you can get the second shot in 8 weeks. 5 weeks x 7=35 days. The US is averaging 3 million shots a day. 35x3=105 million, so 105 million and 155 million already who have received shots=260 million, divide by 330 million people =78%. Maybe there will be some anti vaxxers, but I do not think it is nearly as great as 30 percent. Math does happen to be my strong point.

This is twice you’ve implied something about people’s math skills, even going so far as insulting one.

Math will only take you so far, but you have to account to account for human nature as well. This can’t be looked at only through a math lens. FWIW, our local paper just ran an article yesterday saying 1 in 4 adults are currently saying they won’t get the vaccine, so yeah, 30% isn’t too far off, as things stand now.

 

[AvidDisReader]

This is twice you’ve implied something about people’s math skills, even going so far as insulting one.

Math will only take you so far, but you have to account to account for human nature as well. This can’t be looked at only through a math lens. FWIW, our local paper just ran an article yesterday saying 1 in 4 adults are currently saying they won’t get the vaccine, so yeah, 30% isn’t too far off, as things stand now.

Well math does not lie. If the numbers decrease and I am off in 8 weeks I will be the first to admit it. Until then, I am going to stick with the historical numbers of the last 8 weeks to make projections for the next 8 weeks.

 

[godisney14]

Overall, new hospitalizations are picking back up since last week, ~5% week over week.
Not impending doom. But, it is unsettling because it follows a recent rise in cases since about three weeks ago, and that metric isn’t looking better. You can see that we’re at about the same rate as last summer.
Our hospitals are still not allowing more than one family member.