Canadian Dollar - buy now or wait it out??

[Lil ole moi]

Decisions, decisions! Our trip isn't until September... Does anyone know if the dollar is expected to get better or worse?? What are my DIS experts saying?

 

[abirdd]

I for one believe the "things must get worse before they get better" view that economists have been touting. I just don't think we've hit bottom *yet*. How the Canadian dollar will fair is anyone's guess - but I don't think it's anywhere near finished the rollercoaster.

If it helps, I play around with exchange calculator at ScotiaOnline every day. If I can get a decent exchange, I move money into my US account. Otherwise, I just keep checking back.

Obviously not a big help to you, but figured I would chime in

 

[stefanospops]

Since you have until September I suggest you buy some now and wait it out. That way if it gets better you buy more and if it gets worse at least you bought some at a better rate.

 

[surfer_ed]

I have given up trying to play a waiting game and "Dollar Cost Average" by buying $200 every month regardless of the rate. Of course if it gets better I buy a little more.

 

[Debbie]

I have given up trying to play a waiting game and "Dollar Cost Average" by buying $200 every month regardless of the rate. Of course if it gets better I buy a little more.

 

[dis_guy]

I have given up trying to play a waiting game and "Dollar Cost Average" by buying $200 every month regardless of the rate. Of course if it gets better I buy a little more.

We're doing this too. Back in Sept we booked our Christmas trip and what I did was take the balance owing, divide by the number of months we had, and pay that amount each month. I usually try to time it for a decent rate. Some months we win big time, some months we get "robbed". It all averages out.

 

[aanderson5]

I try to buy some off every pay check. If it is bad I only get $25 or so. If it is better I adjust up. I feel better buying even a little bit. It feels good seeing the US account moving up.

 

[redrosesix]

Just opened my US$ account today. But I'm only adding $1 Can per week for now. I've never traded Forex, and it's been a long time since I was in 5th year currency and exchange economics -- but I'm pulling out my old books since I'm now seeing a chance to save myself some money here.

Here's my spin on what I've heard lately -- just pulling out the stuff that I thought was relevant:

The gold forecast I heard today shows gold hitting new highs by the end of the year, based on devaluation of the US$. However, the US could decide to loosen the tighter money policy (which they're holding on to with interest rates so low) if fear of inflation there subsides. In the near term, all commodity-based economies will take a hit on their currency, including Canada.

Forecast for the next few quarters from CIBC World Markets:

C$/US$
2009 Q2 1.300
2009 Q3 1.250
2009 Q4 1.180
2010 Q1 1.160
2010 Q2 1.140

So...it seems like now is as good a time to buy as any if you're going in Sept. (which is at the end of Q3). But don't buy US$ unless you are soon on your way to Orlando once the Can$ starts to fall more.

If you aren't going until 2010, wait. Don't pay off your package, etc. until the last minute. The most dramatic change will be during the last 3 months of 2009.

PS. If you're a risk taker and don't need your US$ til 2010, buy gold at the bottom and cash out into US$ at the peak.

 

[angela1044]

Just opened my US$ account today. But I'm only adding $1 Can per week for now. I've never traded Forex, and it's been a long time since I was in 5th year currency and exchange economics -- but I'm pulling out my old books since I'm now seeing a chance to save myself some money here.

Here's my spin on what I've heard lately -- just pulling out the stuff that I thought was relevant:

The gold forecast I heard today shows gold hitting new highs by the end of the year, based on devaluation of the US$. However, the US could decide to loosen the tighter money policy (which they're holding on to with interest rates so low) if fear of inflation there subsides. In the near term, all commodity-based economies will take a hit on their currency, including Canada.

Forecast for the next few quarters from CIBC World Markets:

C$/US$
2009 Q2 1.300
2009 Q3 1.250
2009 Q4 1.180
2010 Q1 1.160
2010 Q2 1.140

So...it seems like now is as good a time to buy as any if you're going in Sept. (which is at the end of Q3). But don't buy US$ unless you are soon on your way to Orlando once the Can$ starts to fall more.

If you aren't going until 2010, wait. Don't pay off your package, etc. until the last minute. The most dramatic change will be during the last 3 months of 2009.

PS. If you're a risk taker and don't need your US$ til 2010, buy gold at the bottom and cash out into US$ at the peak.

Great info! So, any idea how to buy gold? We aren't going until 2010 hopefully.

 

[redrosesix]

Great info! So, any idea how to buy gold? We aren't going until 2010 hopefully.

I don't have much experience buying just gold -- I usually trade the gold mining companies (if their business does well, my stock does well even if the price of gold doesn't go up) Many people who like the idea of trading just the commodity buy Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's), like this one: SPDR Gold E.T.F. (GLD-N on the US market), which was one of the top picks on BNN's Market Call yesterday or iShares S&P/TSX Gl Gold E.T.F. (XGD-T on the TSX). These trade like stocks -- easy in, easy out. If you're going to buy gold stocks, however, I strongly suggest you buy a bottle of Tums at the same time -- watching the prices too much makes you feel like you're on a roller coaster.

 

[Honeystar120608]

Just opened my US$ account today. But I'm only adding $1 Can per week for now. I've never traded Forex, and it's been a long time since I was in 5th year currency and exchange economics -- but I'm pulling out my old books since I'm now seeing a chance to save myself some money here.

Here's my spin on what I've heard lately -- just pulling out the stuff that I thought was relevant:

The gold forecast I heard today shows gold hitting new highs by the end of the year, based on devaluation of the US$. However, the US could decide to loosen the tighter money policy (which they're holding on to with interest rates so low) if fear of inflation there subsides. In the near term, all commodity-based economies will take a hit on their currency, including Canada.

Forecast for the next few quarters from CIBC World Markets:

C$/US$
2009 Q2 1.300
2009 Q3 1.250
2009 Q4 1.180
2010 Q1 1.160
2010 Q2 1.140

So...it seems like now is as good a time to buy as any if you're going in Sept. (which is at the end of Q3). But don't buy US$ unless you are soon on your way to Orlando once the Can$ starts to fall more.

If you aren't going until 2010, wait. Don't pay off your package, etc. until the last minute. The most dramatic change will be during the last 3 months of 2009.

PS. If you're a risk taker and don't need your US$ til 2010, buy gold at the bottom and cash out into US$ at the peak.

So for going end of Nov, what do you think? I mean, by the time we pay off DW and Airlines, it wont be until October that we will be able to buy much USD. If Im reading to forecast properly, seems like the end of this year will fair well enough? or better I should say.... true?

 

[redrosesix]

So for going end of Nov, what do you think? I mean, by the time we pay off DW and Airlines, it wont be until October that we will be able to buy much USD. If Im reading to forecast properly, seems like the end of this year will fair well enough? or better I should say.... true?

Yes, but the quarterly forecasts are an average of expected exchange rates over those 3 months. So in Q4, I would expect the exchange rate could be as high as 1.25 on Oct 1st, as low as 1.16 on Dec. 31st. But either one of those beats the predicted exchange rate of 1.30 for Q3 (which, since it's an average of the Q3 months, could be significantly higher than that at any point)

If I was going in Nov, I would plan to wait, but would still probably buy US$ on significant dips eg. on days when bad US reports are released. I am planning to buy US$ whenever I see it below $1.20, since I need those funds in early fall. Some other forecasts I've been reading are forecasting monthly averages not to dip below $1.20 until August of 2009. I'll post those exchange rates predictions too, when I can find 3 sources that say the same thing.

 

[redrosesix]

If you're waiting to exchange, watch this:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip161849

 

[lisalonglash]

If you're waiting to exchange, watch this:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip161849

That was very interesting! I think I'll pay some money on our trip in the next few days, then wait for that 85 or 87 cent level! Thanks for posting

 

[fundy_dreamer]

WOW...this thread got very technical very quickly...good tips...my advice is to just use CDN money at the parks...you'll end up spending significantly less...lol

 

[DisneyRookie2007]

WOW...this thread got very technical very quickly...good tips...my advice is to just use CDN money at the parks...you'll end up spending significantly less...lol

the parks take CDN $$ ??????????

 

[fundy_dreamer]

Sorry...I should have used my 'tongue in cheek' smilie

 

[redrosesix]

WOW...this thread got very technical very quickly...good tips...my advice is to just use CDN money at the parks...you'll end up spending significantly less...lol

I nearly fell out of my chair when I read this.

 

[petunia]

Very interesting, I was worried we were going back down to .79, I'll take .85

 

[SandraC]

I bought $300 US in March, cost me $394 CDN

I bought $400 US this week, cost me $494 CDN

Both times I paid $94 CDN but received $100 more US this month. Just info.

Sandra