Can I justify DVC like this?

[Jaga]

Sorry about this but I do seem to be asking a lot of questions...but thank you everyone for all you helpful feedback. I am very impressed that this board remains so active and forthcoming with information.

This question is simple...Has DVC resale prices ever gone down below the $10 approx difference with buying direct. Recently I know resale demand is very high but originally in the early 90's was there a resale market and was it similar?

My thinking is ...buy now and keep for 10 years. My initial outlay is likely to be recovered even with resale commission (10-12%) as points values are estimated to rise over the next few years.
Then I would be getting WDW quality and benefits for my maintenance fee plus 3-5% per year (i.e The depreciation in monetary value per year linked to inflation). Very easy to justify.

The only thorn in this plan is

1. If DVC resale demand falls ...ie my question
2. The 42 year thing.....now 32 years becomes an issue and DVC II begins

Any thoughts?:

 

[Caskbill]

Jaga, an excellent question, and one probably none of can answer with any certainty.

Historically, DVC points prices have gone steadily upward since 1991, and resale prices have followed that. (Who would sell points for $50 when they could get $65 because Disney went to $75)

Whether that will continue is anybody's guess. It is pretty well believed that the prices will be in the mid $80 range for BCV, and will probably climb even higher by the time Bonnet Creek sells. Therefore if you bought today, chances are likely resale prices could go high enough in the near future to the point of equaling your initial purchase price (If from Disney), or actually grow (if you purchase resale today). However, as in life, there are no guarantees. BCV's will most likely be part of DVC as we know it today. However, Bonnet Creek could easily be the beginning of a DVC-II program, and how that would affect resale prices is anybody's guess.

On the other side, remember, that no matter what happens in 10 years, you still would have received 10 years worth of great WDW vacations. What is the 'value' of that for you and your family?