I'm assuming that you need to find something in the next couple of months because you are planning on making a reservation in that time. As others have suggested, you may give yourself more flexibility by renting or transferring points to cover that reservation. What I'd like to add is that you are looking to make a 40 year commitment to a timeshare purchase, and that is the time horizon that should be at the forefront of your thinking. While I know it's important to you now, this one reservation should not dictate how you make a purchase that you will have for the next 40 years.
I'm not so sure I agree with some of the mathematical assumptions you have made here, but that's not entirely important. I've highlighted a few things you said because they are important. I understand what you're saying about not wanting more dues. Mathematically speaking, that is not a particularly strong argument because of the ability to rent out those points and actually come out ahead financially. The strong argument you make is when you say that you don't want to have to rent out the extra points. There you're making a choice to pay for convenience, and that is a personal choice that is specific to the individual. I know that I've done it in the past as well. In fact, anyone who has paid any of Disney's new surcharges for preferred parking, seating, transportation, viewing areas, etc. etc. has done so.
I would like to suggest that you look into the process of renting out extra points through one of the many point brokers that are out there. The process is incredibly easy. Just this morning I used
www.**************.com to rent out a large number of extra points and the entire process took me 30 minutes, start to finish. Once you realize how easy it can be, that just might change how you view the math. In the meantime, please don't feel like you are being talked down to. The people who post on this board are good people who are truly looking to help others with no gain for themselves. Sometimes intent and tone can be implied when reading posts, but please know that the intentions are good.