Buying DVC and renting out points - Investment

[CastAStone]

We're specifically not renting points for our "one last check to be sure" trip to SSR in January because the difference between renting and doing cash through Disney was something like $100 - and they haven't even released January discounts yet!

Many people's risk tolerance says that it's worth a 2% risk of losing $3000 to save $3000, which is how my dad and I estimated the math (thinking mainly hurricane risk) before deciding to rent points for our trip last fall (through David's for their then-price of $16/point). These people make up most of the rental market most of the time.

Since then the price via Davids has increased 25% (!), and from Disney, the room discounts have increased more than the room prices, so the net price of the room in cash is actually cheaper than it was. So now we'd be risking $3750 to save $2000, and the risk of needing to last minute cancel during a pandemic is more like 10%-15%.

Mathematically we should take the risk. Realistically I think most people don't have the ability to put a double digit risk profile against $3750, or at least they believe they don't. So I think that the market won't be what it was for a while.

 

[davidl81]

We're specifically not renting points for our "one last check to be sure" trip to SSR in January because the difference between renting and doing cash through Disney was something like $100 - and they haven't even released January discounts yet!

Many people's risk tolerance says that it's worth a 2% risk of losing $3000 to save $3000, which is how my dad and I estimated the math (thinking mainly hurricane risk) before deciding to rent points for our trip last fall (through David's for their then-price of $16/point). These people make up most of the rental market most of the time.

Since then the price via Davids has increased 25% (!), and from Disney, the room discounts have increased more than the room prices, so the net price of the room in cash is actually cheaper than it was. So now we'd be risking $3750 to save $2000, and the risk of needing to last minute cancel during a pandemic is more like 10%-15%.

Mathematically we should take the risk. Realistically I think most people don't have the ability to put a double digit risk profile against $3750, or at least they believe they don't. So I think that the market won't be what it was for a while.

But what is weird is that we are not seeing rental rates drop yet (with the exception of the must use within 30 day type of rentals). On this board the $17 rentals seems to be going very quickly. Granted like anything this could change, but at least right now we are not seeing any real impact on rental prices.

 

[Sandisw]

But what is weird is that we are not seeing rental rates drop yet (with the exception of the must use within 30 day type of rentals). On this board the $17 rentals seems to be going very quickly. Granted like anything this could change, but at least right now we are not seeing any real impact on rental prices.

There has also been a lot more $14 to $15 offers as well

So, definitely lower overall prices than last winter when I was looking to rent out my points and decided to go with a broker instead.