Break Even Point

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Not to many timeshares have the hue demand in rentals and hold value like DVC

I’m not too sure about resale value as we approach 2042 if they keep resale restrictions in place for new resorts. Contracts with 20 years left on them right now like OKW are holding a decent amount of value because they points there can still be used at a lot of resorts. I’m not sure how much, for example, Saratoga Springs is going to be worth when you can’t use the points at a lot of places.

Long term cratering the resale market could even be Disney’s strategy. Then they can ROFR all the points super cheap and resell them as direct points at a huge profit.

 

[RoseGold]

I did my original math against a AoA studio, which has gone up faster than I calculated. The room that didn’t is the hotel room, which I view as Swolphin. Many studio-style purchases of DVC won’t break even right now against swolphin, especially with the RIV/VGF point charts.

My style of my travel with 1 or 2 BR would have been cost prohibitive, or even impossible. I’m happy with overall cost and that’s all I can do.

But the mathematician in me will be happy paying for swolphin when I sell my points.

 

[E2ME2]

I did my original math against a AoA studio, which has gone up faster than I calculated. The room that didn’t is the hotel room, which I view as Swolphin. Many studio-style purchases of DVC won’t break even right now against swolphin, especially with the RIV/VGF point charts.

My style of my travel with 1 or 2 BR would have been cost prohibitive, or even impossible. I’m happy with overall cost and that’s all I can do.

But the mathematician in me will be happy paying for swolphin when I sell my points.

That Swolphin comparison will vary greatly, depending upon date of stay. We had to land there a couple times, during COVID, when Marriott closed some other resorts in Orlando, and the Jan/Feb rates are rather high, PLUS the additional Resort fee for parking is ridiculous.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I did my original math against a AoA studio, which has gone up faster than I calculated. The room that didn’t is the hotel room, which I view as Swolphin. Many studio-style purchases of DVC won’t break even right now against swolphin, especially with the RIV/VGF point charts.

My style of my travel with 1 or 2 BR would have been cost prohibitive, or even impossible. I’m happy with overall cost and that’s all I can do.

But the mathematician in me will be happy paying for swolphin when I sell my points.

I definitely agree on the point about 1 and 2 BR's.

I don't know where you could find comparable rooms to those for cash rates that aren't completely astronomical. Generally those size rooms for cash guests are in very short supply and they are targeting a very specific (ie. very wealthy) demographic with them.

 

[sethschroeder]

But dues go up as well, likely largely cancelling out any rental price increase. I actually expect rental prices to rise pretty slowly, the more DVC grows and as more contracts age—- we may hit a glut of point supply.

Percentage wise MFs might grow faster but actual money wise no. Also while dues are more easily planned for yearly the rental rates will jump around in larger chunks but are planned off costs of an actual hotel cost that someone doing the math against Cash would then pay. We could be looking at another jump in MFs in the next year or two as the excess points starting being used/break.

Just using the past decade:
$12-$14 for rental points vs $4.22-$5.62 MFs
$17-$19 for rental points vs $7.08-$8.81 MFs

$5 increase in rentals
$2.86-$3.19 increase in MFs (yes this will be off as I only compared top end/bottom end of resorts at WDW that existed in 2012 to 2022)

So while the % difference might shrink over the years between rental and MFs if you lock in now you will find a consistent gap (there has to be in order for it to make sense). Flip side if the gap disappears than retail renters will sell all their resale contracts and crash the market. In reality though the retail renters and rental stores help price fix the market in benefit of the DVC members who rent out their points.

The exception to all of this is getting rental points as a 1 off from someone going super cheap or traveling last minute with points in holding neither of which really could be planned upon unless you live close to WDW and have a large amount of flexibility.

 

[sethschroeder]

I did my original math against a AoA studio, which has gone up faster than I calculated. The room that didn’t is the hotel room, which I view as Swolphin. Many studio-style purchases of DVC won’t break even right now against swolphin, especially with the RIV/VGF point charts.

My style of my travel with 1 or 2 BR would have been cost prohibitive, or even impossible. I’m happy with overall cost and that’s all I can do.

But the mathematician in me will be happy paying for swolphin when I sell my points.

I can't imagine that. I might do the math later as I haven't done DVC math in a long time since I don't plan on adding any points.

I checked Swan Reserve though (I would expect this to be the cheapest????) and its like $450+/night for 2 people in a normal room. Thats also prepay as the standard room is like $500/night.

This is all considering studios as I don't think they even have a 1BR/2BR at Swan/Dolphin do they?

 

[havoc315]

Percentage wise MFs might grow faster but actual money wise no. Also while dues are more easily planned for yearly the rental rates will jump around in larger chunks but are planned off costs of an actual hotel cost that someone doing the math against Cash would then pay. We could be looking at another jump in MFs in the next year or two as the excess points starting being used/break.

Just using the past decade:
$12-$14 for rental points vs $4.22-$5.62 MFs
$17-$19 for rental points vs $7.08-$8.81 MFs

$5 increase in rentals
$2.86-$3.19 increase in MFs (yes this will be off as I only compared top end/bottom end of resorts at WDW that existed in 2012 to 2022)

The 3-4% annual increases in dues is more predictable than the increase in rental rates. In fact, I'm pretty sure rental rates have been flat for the last 2 years, while dues have increased.

Dues will be set by actual costs, while rental rates are set by market supply and demand. Supply of points is extremely likely to continue to increase. I'm less confident that demand will increase with it, to continue the current margins. The rental price increase will be more directly associated with WDW cash room rates. (a rational renter is not going to pay more to rent points than they would pay for a cash room). Historically, over the last 10-20 years, DVC dues may have increased 3-4% per year, while hotel rack rates increased at a significantly higher rate. But at some point, Disney may find they can no longer increase rack rate 5-10% per year. If WDW room rates only increase 3-4% per year, then rental rates will only increase 3-4% per year. If WDW hotel prices decline (which is possible, it would mean reduced profit margin), then rental rates will decline. Yes, it is very feasible that rental rates will decline even as dues increase.

So while the % difference might shrink over the years between rental and MFs if you lock in now you will find a consistent gap (there has to be in order for it to make sense). Flip side if the gap disappears than retail renters will sell all their resale contracts and crash the market. In reality though the retail renters and rental stores help price fix the market in benefit of the DVC members who rent out their points.

I think you're making an incorrect assumption about why people rent out points. Yes, if renting becomes less profitable, some of those people will re-sell instead. But the mere fact you're clearing $6 per point by renting instead of clearing $8 per point isn't going to cause a mass sell-off. Most DVC owners have likely never even tried to rent out their points. Many that do, do it only occasionally. I don't know how many "retail renters" actually exist, but I don't think their numbers are huge enough to control the re-sale pricing market.

The exception to all of this is getting rental points as a 1 off from someone going super cheap or traveling last minute with points in holding neither of which really could be planned upon unless you live close to WDW and have a large amount of flexibility.

 

[RoseGold]

I checked Swan Reserve though (I would expect this to be the cheapest????) and its like $450+/night for 2 people in a normal room. Thats also prepay as the standard room is like $500/night.

Dolphin was like $179 at Thanksgiving a month or so ago. That will never hold up to DVC math. 7 months out is NYE and it's still only 352!!!

Swan Reserve is the new, fancy one. I would consider any of them to be equal or better than DVC in facilities and tranportation. Maybe not theming.

Swolphin pricing swings wildly with conferences and such, but booking ahead can be significantly cheaper than DVC. I didn't believe that to be mathematically true when I bought, or maybe I wouldn't have bought in.

And yes, it's just a hotel room and DVC has 2BR and such, but plenty of people are just looking for studios with laundry. And that's Dolphin.

 

[sethschroeder]

Dolphin was like $179 at Thanksgiving a month or so ago. That will never hold up to DVC math. 7 months out is NYE and it's still only 352!!!

Sounds like resorts around me. Short terms sales not to be counted on within another 1-2 years from now as crowds fully return.

Maybe they have over saturated though and will continue discounts.

I am seeing lots of taxes and fees as well a $276 rate becomes $350 after taxes on average looking in december.

It's $3,149.93 for 9 nights early December at Dolphin while with the incentives that just ended it would be $1924ish for a studio. So you would see about $1200 in saving per year on 155 points.

So fairly far out 20+ years maybe in breakeven. Hard to say though as I don't track Swan Dolphin enough. It seems to me this is short term pricing discounts that will not be offered in the future but who knows. That's the primary benefit in DVC is locking in hotel rates and only paying at maintenance goes up but not paying more in profit.

 

[davidl81]

If you have purchased 695 point and haven’t broken even I think you may have done your math wrong….

It's not that the points won't break even compared to the trips we have taken/will take, that math very much favors DVC. It is the fact that the trips we take now (lots of 2 BR bringing family, just did a GV at Aulani etc.) we would never have done at cash prices. If we didn't buy into DVC we would still likely go to Disney as much, but would end up staying at a lot more studios and it's doubtful we would offer to pay for MIL's room if she came with us as an example.
So my point is that we have never really "saved money" per say because we have greatly upgraded our trips compared to what we would have done without DVC. I'm sure if I put it all on paper we have in fact spent more than we likely would have paying cash, but once again we would have paid cash for significantly smaller/lower levels of accommodations.

 

[Sandisw]

It's not that the points won't break even compared to the trips we have taken/will take, that math very much favors DVC. It is the fact that the trips we take now (lots of 2 BR bringing family, just did a GV at Aulani etc.) we would never have done at cash prices. If we didn't buy into DVC we would still likely go to Disney as much, but would end up staying at a lot more studios and it's doubtful we would offer to pay for MIL's room if she came with us as an example.
So my point is that we have never really "saved money" per say because we have greatly upgraded our trips compared to what we would have done without DVC. I'm sure if I put it all on paper we have in fact spent more than we likely would have paying cash, but once again we would have paid cash for significantly smaller/lower levels of accommodations.

This is me. When we started at 180, we were doing one 5 to 6 night yearly trip to the CR…based on those figures, and travel patterns, we would save money.

But, now, my MFs alone on 900 points are way more than what we were spending before DVC…sure, we get a lot more travel and benefits, but we certainly can’t say DVC is saved us money as without it, I’d not be visiting 6 to 8 times a year.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Dolphin was like $179 at Thanksgiving a month or so ago. That will never hold up to DVC math. 7 months out is NYE and it's still only 352!!!

Swan Reserve is the new, fancy one. I would consider any of them to be equal or better than DVC in facilities and tranportation. Maybe not theming.

Swolphin pricing swings wildly with conferences and such, but booking ahead can be significantly cheaper than DVC. I didn't believe that to be mathematically true when I bought, or maybe I wouldn't have bought in.

And yes, it's just a hotel room and DVC has 2BR and such, but plenty of people are just looking for studios with laundry. And that's Dolphin.

The Dolphin is currently $776 for New Years Eve for a single room with 2 double beds.

The cheapest swolphin room for a random weekday in early/mid december is $420 per night.

The cheapest swolphin room for a random weekday in early/mid january is $320 per night.

I keep trying to find these supposedly great swolphin deals but I never seem to be able to. Sometimes you see it advertised in the low $200's per night, but that's not the actual price. You click through to where you actually pay and it's gone up by nearly $100. And also if you want to have any flexibility in canceling or changing the dates, it's another $20 or $30 bucks per night.

It seems like the basic rule of thumb is that whatever the advertised price is, add $120 and that's the real price.

And unless you can actually sleep 2 people on a double bed (my wife is 5'10 and I'm 6'3, that isn't happening), the cheapest rooms at the Dolphin aren't even really an option. And they certainly aren't comparable to anything in the DVC. So if it's a Dolphin advertised price and you aren't down for the double beds, add more like $160 per night to the advertised price.


But I would think that even a room advertised at $170 but is really $290, isn't going to stack up all that great against a comparable DVC room. And those kinds of deals are the exception.

 

[RoseGold]

I keep trying to find these supposedly great swolphin deals but I never seem to be able to. Sometimes you see it advertised in the low $200's per night, but that's not the actual price.

Swolphin swings wildly, much more wildly than Disney properties. Heck more wildly than anything I've seen but a ski resort. You can set up an alert on a lot of sites.

But all of those examples I did real time for people asking questions on the resort boards. They were nothing special, just public searches on marriott.com. Actually, when I did the Thanksgiving search, both Thanksgiving and Christmas were $179.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Swolphin swings wildly, much more wildly than Disney properties. Heck more wildly than anything I've seen but a ski resort. You can set up an alert on a lot of sites.

But all of those examples I did real time for people asking questions on the resort boards. They were nothing special, just public searches on marriott.com. Actually, when I did the Thanksgiving search, both Thanksgiving and Christmas were $179.

But that was the advertised price, right?

In order to actually pay $179 the advertised rate would have to be near $50. Or $80 if you were willing to book it fully non-refundable.

 

[RoseGold]

But that was the advertised price, right?

In order to actually pay $179 the advertised rate would have to be near $50. Or $80 if you were willing to book it fully non-refundable.

I just did a marriott.com search for MLK weekend, three nights Jan 14-17. Advertised rate of 299. resort fees and taxes of 76$/night. Flexible rate about $100 more for the whole thing.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I just did a marriott.com search for MLK weekend, three nights Jan 14-17. Advertised rate of 299. resort fees and taxes of 76$/night. Flexible rate about $100 more for the whole thing.

I see it advertised at $299, and the final price is $424.50 per night.

I don't know what qualifying for the member pricing entails, but it would be $414.50 per night.

I don't think that's beating any DVC studios. And plus you're stuck in double beds.

If you want a decent sized bed to sleep in, you're looking at $463.88 per night in that hotel. (or $10 less with member pricing)


Cheapest room at the Swan is advertising $401 per night and comes out to $555.75 for the cheapest room. ($10 less with member pricing)

 

[Azndjdude]

I found a $153 a night at Swan Dolphin on August 24th 2022 lol plus taxes and the $35 resort fee.

 

[Sandisw]

I see it advertised at $299, and the final price is $424.50 per night.

I don't know what qualifying for the member pricing entails, but it would be $414.50 per night.

I don't think that's beating any DVC studios. And plus you're stuck in double beds.

If you want a decent sized bed to sleep in, you're looking at $463.88 per night in that hotel. (or $10 less with member pricing)


Cheapest room at the Swan is advertising $401 per night and comes out to $555.75 for the cheapest room. ($10 less with member pricing)

And, of course, with everything, this assumes one feels staying at the property is comparable for being at one of the Disney properties. As you point out, it is not always the least expensive option and while there are deals to be had, it may not be consistent.

For me, staying there would never be the same, even choosing BWV or BCV...but for others, it might be. I think the big rule of thumb with deciding DVC is that you have to compare it to a place you might actually want to stay at and be happy with long term. It is why we used the rates at CR when we decided to buy because having stayed at many other places around Disney, including a few times off site, we realized none of those made us happy.

 

[RamblinWreck]

And, of course, with everything, this assumes one feels staying at the property is comparable for being at one of the Disney properties. As you point out, it is not always the least expensive option and while there are deals to be had, it may not be consistent.

For me, staying there would never be the same, even choosing BWV or BCV...but for others, it might be. I think the big rule of thumb with deciding DVC is that you have to compare it to a place you might actually want to stay at and be happy with long term. It is why we used the rates at CR when we decided to buy because having stayed at many other places around Disney, including a few times off site, we realized none of those made us happy.

I would definitely much rather stay at the Boardwalk than the Dolphin.

But if your main priority is just having a place to sleep that's walkable to EPCOT/HS, I get the comp.

But I don't see even a room with double beds at the Dolphin beating a studio at Boardwalk on price. Even that "$153" deal quoted above, I went and priced it out fully and it comes out to $240. And that's also only for one night, and the other nights around it are significantly more expensive. Even if I rent points from someone at $20 per point, the studio at Boardwalk is also $240 exactly for that night. And also it's $240 every other night that week as well.

So I would say that if Boardwalk is your comp, you are FAR better off owning at BWV than you are booking rooms at the Swolphin. If you don't mind having zero ability to cancel or change your dates, and you don't mind sleeping in double beds, you may be able to make off just slightly better at the Dolphin if you hunt for the right deals at the right times. I wouldn't count on it though.

 

[davidl81]

I always struggle with this. Dolphin is cheaper normally. But it’s somewhat hit or miss. DVC you basically know your price all of the time. There is no “waiting for a deal” etc.
At the end of the day if you want to absolute cheapest way to stay on property but walk to Epcot then yeah I’d think Dolphin wins. But DVC clearly has so many more benefits from room selections, different resorts etc.