Blu Ray already gasping for breath?

[Papa Deuce]

from TGDaily..... a fairly reliable source:

New York (NY) – Hollywood studios released recent movie sales data that indicate that DVD sales have dropped in 2008 again. The decline is estimated at about 4%, which may not sound much, but is significant when we consider the fact that DVD sales make up 70% of Hollywood movie revenue. Studios hope to reverse the trend with releases such as "Wall-E" and "The Dark Knight" – and hope that Blu-ray will finally become mainstream – or disappear.

Time Warner-owned Warner Bros., the largest distributor of DVDs, said DVD sales dived about 4% this year and it appears that especially weak October sales take the blame for the decline. The studio said that Blu-ray sales will miss this year's target by at least 25%. The independent tracking service Nielsen VideoScan estimated a 9% drop in Q3 DVD sales and a 22% decline in new titles' sales. Nielsen VideoScan's results do not include DVD sales at Wal-Mart. 2007 DVD sales dropped by 3.2% from the 2006 level.

Blu-ray’s disappointing performance should not be too surprising given that player prices have just begun recently to drop and Blu-ray movie prices are typically 25 – 50% above those of DVDs. One research suggests that consumers will not embrace the format until there is no doubt that the technology is here to stay. Blu-ray players are still expensive, but have shown significant price drops recently, with some players selling for less than $200. Wal-Mart is believed to be offering a $128 player on Black Friday.

According to Pricegrabber.com, the Blu-ray player with the lowest average U.S. retail price is currently the Memorex MVBD2510, which goes for $176. Sharp’s BD-HP21U is selling for an average for $191, Philips BDP7200 for $221 and Samsung’s BD-P1500 for $226, the price comparison service states. There are some exclusive-brand offerings below $200, such as Best Buy’s Insignia NS-BRDVD player, which is currently offered for $170.

Hollywood studios believe that sub-$200 Blu-ray players combined with more Blu-ray exposure in retail stores will help the format finally take off this holiday season: Over $25 million will be spent to push DVD and Blu-ray holiday releases, like "Wall-E," "Hancock," and "The Dark Knight." The latter is well on its way to become the most pirated movie of 2008. Even studio execs see this holiday season as Blu-ray's last chance. "We think this is a do-or-die time for Blu-ray," Warner Home Video president Ron Sanders told the New York Times.

 

[disney1990]

It wouldn't surprise me to have them just stopping making DVDs except in the Blue Ray format. That would force everybody to change over just like they did when they choice which VCR format to go with.

 

[Papa Deuce]

It wouldn't surprise me to have them just stopping making DVDs except in the Blue Ray format. That would force everybody to change over just like they did when they choice which VCR format to go with.

That might make sense IF they lowered the price of Blu Ray DVD's down to the sames a regular DVD. I own 100+ DVD's. I have had a Playstation 3 for over a year - which plays Blu Ray - I am sure you know.

I own ZERO Blu Ray DVDs. I won't pay the price difference.... I get the ones I do watch from Netflix.

 

[Kathi OD]

I think part of the problem is that Blu-Ray came too closely on the heels of DVD becoming mainstream. How many people do you know who still have VHS tapes along w/ their DVDs? Also, there are still tons of educational videos that are not yet available on DVD, let alone Blu-Ray.

I know that I'm in no hurry to move to Blu-Ray.

 

[DISUNC]

Maybe Hollywood should start making movies that people whould actually want to own.

I will be looking to buy a BlU-Ray this Friday, BUT I wont pay any more for BluRay DVDs than regular DVD's.

 

[The Mystery Machine]

I don't buy DVD's period, except for maybe a select few. I would not invest in Blu-ray for that reason.

 

[crazelion]

They is finally coming out with DVDs that I want buy. i jump the gun and bought a HD-DVD player that is now is useless. I will wait on Blu-Ray. There is no movies that I want Blu-Ray any how.

 

[Carl]

It would help if the Blu Ray would also record. And of course if the Blu Ray disks cost closer to the price of a standard DVD.

 

[JB111107]

Blu Ray was a major reason why we bought the PS3 instead of something else. We still buy regular dvds for some things, but certain movies we've bought in Blu Ray, mostly ones with some major special effects, like Transformers, Harry Potter, etc. I'll be buying Band Of Brothers next week on Blu Ray for DH as a christmas gift. There is a real difference between them, especially when you have an HD tv to watch them on, but the cost makes me consider which I'd prefer for that particular movie. Most kids dvds I buy are in regular format.

I would buy all blu ray if they were a little less expensive. Its hard to pay an extra 50% for a dvd.

**we buy tons of dvds at our house, but rarely go out to the movies. You could say it is our one vice. We have about 500 dvds, about 15 blu ray, plus another dozen or so movies for the psp.

 

[SydneyFalco]

I think part of the problem is that Blu-Ray came too closely on the heels of DVD becoming mainstream. How many people do you know who still have VHS tapes along w/ their DVDs?

I go by my sister's family, who live with my mom and dad. They are the "next-to-last's" when it comes to accepting any change in any tech/extravagance part of their lives. I think of them as the perfect barometer for where the "median" lies in North American purchasing.

They bought a flat screen of a decent size (42", I think) less than a year ago. As a consequence, I tend to think of flat screens as the norm now.

They've had a DVD player for X number of years now and--movie lovers that they are--their collection of DVDs is sizeable and has replaced the old, vast collection they had of VHS movies.

They principally get DVDs as gifts, and that holds for all my family members (except myself). As it so happens the price of a DVD falls right around what we usually spend on gifts. (Nobody buys me DVDs because my tastes are too ecclectic, in general.)

They still own a VCR to tape television. So I don't think of recording DVDs or PVRs (of which my wife and I own two and just love to death) as having become the standard just yet.

Blu-Ray isn't even on their radar, because of that vast DVD collection they've already built up. I don't even think the price of the Blu Ray discs themselves even factor into their thinking at this point.

For my own part, I'm film nut, a former film student, AND a technophile, but even I haven't moved to Blu-Ray yet. The reasons are many, but a few of them are: 1) I like having MY vast movie collection feel homogeneous, 2) I burn home movies in DVD and fan-edit mainstream movies on my Mac, and, as a consequence, all my software/hardware is set up just right, 3) a lot of the movies I love and would love to own just aren't going to be suped up any by Blu-Ray (black and white films and restored prints already look about as good in DVD as they ever will, because of how much information grayscale processing allows on a DVD-9 to begin with, and 4) most of all, while I know there's superior quality in Blu-Ray, I'm just stunned by how great a DVD looks and sounds already on my 46" LCD. I just don't NEED to use my cash on this.

 

[blu3d3vil]

I bought into HDDVD early due to price. Fortunately I was able to sell all of my HDDVD equipment on Ebay for a profit.

I'll be getting BluRay this Christmas due to the price now being in the affordable range. Plus many BluRay movies are now in the $10 range as well.

 

[Kies99]

Don't forget that in order to get the most out of Blue-Ray, you also need an HDTV. A lot of people don't have those yet and without it, a Blue-Ray disc is only slightly better than a DVD.

 

[Rock'n Robin]

We are looking at getting a flatscreen (46" LCD) for Christms. Literally, DH has been searching around for months. This is not an impulse purchase. The guy at Best Buy was giving us prices and including a blu-ray and I told him we didn't need to get one right away. He practically laughed at me--"a HD tv without a bluray is like a day without the sun coming up!" I laughed right back--it was a crappy simile--but I was pissed too. I have a lot of input into this purchase and I pretty much crossed best buy off of our list after that.
I told DH we should just enjoy our new tv with our regular dvd player for a while before we add on extras like bluray and sound system. Sure we'll have one someday, but we once bought a player with a format that went into extinction soon after (DIVX, anyone else have one?) and I don't want to do that again.
Robin M.

 

[blu3d3vil]

The problem with DIVX is that is wasn't supported by anyone except Circuit City. That's why I didn't buy into it. Once it hits Wal-Mart, like Bluray, then I know it has really penetrated the market and is not a niche product.

 

[harleyquinn]

We are looking at getting a flatscreen (46" LCD) for Christms. Literally, DH has been searching around for months. This is not an impulse purchase. The guy at Best Buy was giving us prices and including a blu-ray and I told him we didn't need to get one right away. He practically laughed at me--"a HD tv without a bluray is like a day without the sun coming up!" I laughed right back--it was a crappy simile--but I was pissed too. I have a lot of input into this purchase and I pretty much crossed best buy off of our list after that.
I told DH we should just enjoy our new tv with our regular dvd player for a while before we add on extras like bluray and sound system. Sure we'll have one someday, but we once bought a player with a format that went into extinction soon after (DIVX, anyone else have one?) and I don't want to do that again.
Robin M.

We have a giant Sony Bravia, but we don't have Blu ray or HD thru direct tv. I'm just not willing to pay extra for DVDs or the HD programming. We just finally got a DVR. So while we have the super awesome TV, we don't feel the need for the other stuff.

On a side note, we went to BB for a laptop and the guy spent like 30 minutes trying to convince us to get a Mac. HA!

 

[JB111107]

the upside to our PS3 (not sure because I didn't look to find out) is that we can also play regular dvds, cds, and of course, all the PS games from PS1 and PS2.

Does a standard blu ray player also play regular dvds?

I agree though, without an HDTV, the improvement of a blu ray disc is going to be minimal. We have a 1080i HDTV that we got for a steal from Best Buy --42"plasma for 500 bucks....(gotta love incompetent people--they marked down a tv to move it quickly and turns out they marked down the wrong one!) which is the only reason we have what we have.

There is a marked difference in movies like Pearl Harbor, etc. where there are major scenes.

 

[blu3d3vil]

the upside to our PS3 (not sure because I didn't look to find out) is that we can also play regular dvds, cds, and of course, all the PS games from PS1 and PS2.

Does a standard blu ray player also play regular dvds?

I agree though, without an HDTV, the improvement of a blu ray disc is going to be minimal. We have a 1080i HDTV that we got for a steal from Best Buy --42"plasma for 500 bucks....(gotta love incompetent people--they marked down a tv to move it quickly and turns out they marked down the wrong one!) which is the only reason we have what we have.

There is a marked difference in movies like Pearl Harbor, etc. where there are major scenes.

Yes plus it upconverts them to 1080i/p

 

[JoiseyMom]

the upside to our PS3 (not sure because I didn't look to find out) is that we can also play regular dvds, cds, and of course, all the PS games from PS1 and PS2.

Does a standard blu ray player also play regular dvds?

I agree though, without an HDTV, the improvement of a blu ray disc is going to be minimal. We have a 1080i HDTV that we got for a steal from Best Buy --42"plasma for 500 bucks....(gotta love incompetent people--they marked down a tv to move it quickly and turns out they marked down the wrong one!) which is the only reason we have what we have.

There is a marked difference in movies like Pearl Harbor, etc. where there are major scenes.

PS3's do NOT play older playstation games!!!! Blu Ray will play regular DVD's though.

 

[JB111107]

PS3's do NOT play older playstation games!!!! Blu Ray will play regular DVD's though.

funny, we have quite a few PS games and we've played a few of them just fine.

 

[Wishing on a star]

No, I don't think that Blu-Ray is drawing it's last breath...

1. A slight decrease in projected sales... in this economy... ummm DUH!!!

2. Video is going thru the to-be-expected transitional growing pains... Has it been moving fast enough... NO... But, still going thru, all the same...

There is no way that Blu-Ray will surpass regular DVD until the huge percent of all new material is available on Blu-Ray... I don't know about you, but there is a small percentage of shelf space at our Blockbuster that is devoted to Blu-Ray... IMHO, it is taking far far to long for the video producers to step up and fall into line.

3. Yes, there is the price factor. Of course, this has been to-be-expected... but when a Blu-Ray is 3 to 4 times the price of a regular DVD player.. The transition is just not moving fast enough...

IMHO, the transition is just a bit slower and more painful than we would like.. or than it could/should be.

But, I still think the writing is on the wall that regular DVD will be history at some point in the near future.

PS: We have had a new Sony XBR4 for the better part a year now... Just recently upgraded to HD satelite -

We still do not have a Blu-Ray player.. But, it looks like prices may still be coming down, and we will probably take the bait in the near future... Like I said.. a transition is not always 'instant' and 'painless'.