As of this morning (9/19), for the dates we're considering (Feb. 4 - 6), the online rack rate for a standard room (requesting a king bed + sofa sleeper) at the Paradise Pier is $306 per night, excluding tax. If I was able to get 15% off that rate with an AP or cardholder deal, that would bring us to roughly $260 per night, excluding tax ... which seems oddly low! But let's use the rack rate for comparison purposes.
Unless I'm missing something, the Courtyard doesn't offer a king room+ a sofa sleeper, which is what we're looking for. Two queens don't work for us, if we want to be well-rested for the parks. We're not comparing apples to apples here, but the one-bedroom suite with a king bed (no view) is $342 per night, excluding tax.
The BWPPI and Fairfield Inn (both offering a king bed + sofa sleeper) are $188 and $197 per night, excluding tax, respectively. So roughly within $110 per night of Paradise Pier if I CAN'T secure a discount.
I'll probably book offsite and keep an eye on the onsite deals and promos. Now, to decide between BWPPI and Fairfield Inn and determine the "value" of early magic entry ...
By the way, thank you everyone for chiming in! I really appreciate your time.