At what point do airlines eliminate flights?

[Lisa_Belle]

My flight on Delta leaving Sept. 17 in only about one-third book. What are the chances of this flight being cancelled? There is a flight that leaves two hours earlier (but with a longer layover - I would be on the same second leg from Atlanta to MCO) and one that leaves 4.5 hours later. The earlier flight is a larger plane that is only about half booked.

There is also a Part 2 to this ...
If the flight IS cancelled, what are the chances of Delta allowing us on a flight that leaves the previous day? I would go ahead and just change it, but I got a great deal earlier this year and changing flights would be about $200 - money that I would rather spend on souvenirs!

 

[goofy4tink]

You know, I have to figure out how Delta makes those decisions. I was booked on a flight that looked to be about 90% full. Well, about a month before the flight they canceled it, put me on another flight. They took all of us, split us up over two different flights, that were also heavily booked already. By the time I was ready to fly, the flights down and back had changed a total of about 3 more times. Finally, they added back the flight that had been originally canceled so, nope, I can't figure it all out. I just sit here, check my flights daily and hope and pray to the airline gods!!!

 

[Lewisc]

It's not that simple. Your plane is scheduled to be used on a flight leaving MCO. The only time it's that easy is if it's a route such as LAX-LAS where a plane is being used for a round trip and an airline can just cancel both flights.

 

[seashoreCM]

Very good chance they will give you a flight of your choice the previous day with no change fees. Just ask quietly.

Psst: Normally all they need to do is put you on the "closest" flight. It is your choice whether the replacment flight is before or after. If you need to fly earlier and all the flights earlier that day are full, they must give you a flight leaving the day before if you so choose.

Disney hints:
http://members.aol.com/ajaynejr/disney.htm


.

 

[DebbieB]

They usually don't just cancel a flight on one day (unless for problems the day of the flight). They look at their schedule over a period of time and adjust their entire flight schedules.

I would be surprised if they would allow you to change your flight voluntarily with no charge at this point. Whose to say the one you switch to isn't going to be the one cancelled. Watch for a schedule change, that's the time to jump.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

There's a myth that airlines routinely cancel flights with light loads. That's not true.

As Lewisc pointed out, the airline needs your aircraft for a departure in your destination city. As DebbieB pointed out, airlines adjust their schedules over time to eliminate unprofitable flights or unprofitable routes — but they don't just cancel individual flights.

Also, full flights are not necessarily profitable flights, and half full flights can actually be quite profitable. It depends largely on how many full fare seats are typically sold on that route. The full fare can be many times as much as a discount fare. Throw in some passengers who are actually paying for first class seats (often 10 times the price of a discounted coach seat), and a "half empty" flight can be better for the airline than a sold-out tourist flight.

September 17 is still a long time off. Delta can still sell many more tickets between now an September 17.

 

[Laurajean1014]

Anytime they can cancel a flight. That's why calling or checking on-line is so important. It's also another reason why the airlines like you to check in 1-2 hours early.

 

[Lila95]

With all of Delta's financial problems, I wouldn't put anything past them at this point. We were booked on an Oct. flight that was sold out and I just found out tonight that it's been canceled. They gave us a few options but I'm not sure yet what we are going to do.

 

[Lisa_Belle]

There's a myth that airlines routinely cancel flights with light loads. That's not true.

As Lewisc pointed out, the airline needs your aircraft for a departure in your destination city. As DebbieB pointed out, airlines adjust their schedules over time to eliminate unprofitable flights or unprofitable routes — but they don't just cancel individual flights.

Also, full flights are not necessarily profitable flights, and half full flights can actually be quite profitable. It depends largely on how many full fare seats are typically sold on that route. The full fare can be many times as much as a discount fare. Throw in some passengers who are actually paying for first class seats (often 10 times the price of a discounted coach seat), and a "half empty" flight can be better for the airline than a sold-out tourist flight.

September 17 is still a long time off. Delta can still sell many more tickets between now an September 17.

Whew, thanks! That's what I was hoping to hear. I don't want to change times unless I have to. I really do like this flight - especially if it's booked low. (There are no first-class seats, it's a small plane that only seats about 50 people - there are two seats on one side of the aisle and one seat on the other side.) It leaves at a good hour and arrives at a good hour with just the right amount of time for a layover lunch in Atlanta.

We were booked on an Oct. flight that was sold out and I just found out tonight that it's been canceled.

I can understand this, and it's what worries me because the same thing happened to me. One of the legs on my flight home was changed earlier this week - giving me a 23 minute layover in Atlanta to change planes. I don't think that's humanly possible, especially with kids. Even the Delta CS person had a good laugh. I did get a later flight out of MCO so more time in the park that day! Good luck with your itinerary.

 

[CarolA]

I have been reading these "11th" hour changes and I think that part of them are on the DL connection airlines. Some of these are VERY well run and I think some of them are HORRID! If you are are on one of the "small jets" or a smaller plane (think properllers) then you may be at a higher risk.

ASA and Freedom are particularly bad about just random cancellations. (They do a lot of "round robins" just back and forth between your town and the hub and I guess they figure it's not thier fault if you miss the connection.) I find Comair fairly reliable.

 

[lost*in*cyberspace]

My flight on Delta leaving Sept. 17 in only about one-third book. What are the chances of this flight being cancelled?

No one can know this, even Delta employees. Keep in mind that it's a long time until 12 Sept, plenty of time for the flight to completely sell out.

 

[NotUrsula]

The one cancellation factor that is fairly predictable is the problem of available flight crews "going illegal." The later in the month you are flying, or even the later in the day you are flying, the more likely it is to happen, especially if it has been a bad month for weather problems.

Joe Brancatelli recently did a column in USAToday on the topic of cancellations caused by crew scheduling problems: http://www.usatoday.com/travel/columnist/brancatelli/2006-07-16-brancatelli_x.htm

I once had an ugly run-in with this phenomenon at MCO on AA. There was a weather situation en route, and AA knew that they would not get takeoff clearance for quite some time, but the only crew they had available for the aircraft was about to go illegal within an hour. They went ahead and put us on the plane and had it push away from the gate, but we sat within shouting distance of the gate area for about 4 hours until the weather cleared, because the regulations allowed them to complete the flight as long as it "departed" before their legal time was up. It was an absolutely miserable experience for all concerned.