As resort contracts expire...

Momtomouselover

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 10, 2009
As the resort contracts expire in 2042 does anyone hazard a guess how that will work? I'm wondering if they will refurbish or overhaul those resorts and then they become "new DVC resorts" and potentially with the restrictions on resale and trading in on resale the same as Riviera and presumable Reflections. If that is the case, then buying direct now could end up being a good thing come 2042. I wonder if they will always grandfather in previous purchasers (which of course will be less since some will have been part of a resort whose contract ended).
 

Deb & Bill

DVC-Trivia Contest, Apr-2006: Honorable Mention
Joined
Mar 20, 2000
I bet they will just use them as money makers until they go complete renovations and resell them one at a time. They might extend one or two of the newer ones for a bundle of bucks per point , but not the older ones. And some may just be closed until they need them.
 
  • we"reofftoneverland

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 5, 2015
    No, I think she means climate as in climate. Not to be mistaken by weather.

    :)
    I didn’t know if she meant economic climate or something metaphorical. It is just hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that climate would have anything to do with what happens to dvc in 20 years. But I have lived on the gulf coast for most of my life and there has been no change in climate since I was a kid... I’ve been going to the same beach in Florida since I was a young child and the shoreline is in the exact same place today as it has always been. The big change today is that the media reports dramatically and hyperbolically on the climate ALL THE TIME. When I was a kid, in fact, they were talking about the next ice age. Lol

     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    I meant climate.

    The cost to travel is likely to increase over time. Hurricane season is likely to be longer and stronger. The science is very strong that climate is changing, and it will have a variety of impacts across daily life.

    WDW has had to close twice for hurricanes in the last 5 years. This would have been laughed at 10 years ago, that it could happen so far inland.
     

    The Jackal

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Oct 24, 2017
    I meant climate.

    The cost to travel is likely to increase over time. Hurricane season is likely to be longer and stronger. The science is very strong that climate is changing, and it will have a variety of impacts across daily life.

    WDW has had to close twice for hurricanes in the last 5 years. This would have been laughed at 10 years ago, that it could happen so far inland.
    Not trying to start a conflict, there is no doubt the climate is changing, but it is at a slower rate than predicted. They have hurricane data from 1970 to today and there has not been much change in how many storms there are in a year, or how strong they are. There is no way to predict what is going to happen though. I would not expect there to be any major changes in the next 20 years.
     
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    DVC Fanatic

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jun 30, 2018
    As a Florida native, who grew up with hurricanes and moved from Miami just months before Hurricane Andrew, I do not agree with your statement about Disney being so far inland. Being in the middle of the state helps, but the Florida Peninsula is not wide enough, nor does it have enough undulating terrain to protect the center part of the state if a large Category 4 or 5 storms makes a direct impact into the coast. Disney will not have to deal with storm surge which causes a lot of damage from hurricanes, but sustained high winds and tornadoes near the hurricane eye can impact almost anywhere. For an east to west or west to east moving storm, the State of Florida will slow the storm down, but it will likely traverse the entire state as a hurricane and strengthen upon exiting into he Gulf or Atlantic. The island of Cuba actually does a better job of degrading a storm because of its mountain ranges.

    I think a lot of policies have changed at Disney in the last 20 years with regards to security and those impact the decision to close the park. This has been more evident over the last 5 years as Disney has made vast security changes to likely known threats Disney has not disclosed. Disney relies on the Orange County Sheriffs department to show a large police presence, and the possibility of any level hurricane or tropical storm will cause Orange County to shift efforts. Tourism revenues are a major priority of Orange County, but the safety of residents takes priority.

    A few examples I found online from 1995 and 2004 are below. Disney closed the parks for portions of the day, but I would guess similar examples today, would have caused the parks to close for the entire day. A lot has changed with Disney's Security posture and procedures that weigh in the decision to close the parks. Just look at the expanding secure zone, as Disney continues to reshape their park entrances and push the security checkpoints further and further away from the park gates.

    "Back in 1995, category 1 Hurricane Erin hit Walt Disney World in the early morning hours, delaying the park opening until 11AM. Though the rain from the storm continued throughout the day, the weather wasn't severe enough to impact regular operation, and even though some attractions were closed, most guests enjoyed what they could on a very soggy day.

    While this example saw the park opening early, Walt Disney World may also elect to close its parks ahead of schedule as well. In 2004 during Hurricane Charley, all parks were closed by 1PM the day before the hurricane was scheduled to hit in order to prepare for the imminent category 4 storm."
     

    moose81

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Apr 1, 2016
    We just took a DVC tour and I asked our guide about this. He basically implied that the contracts would just be allowed to expire and that Disney would raze those resorts to the ground and build new ones. No idea how true that will end up being, of course, but it surprised me in that it seemed so extreme (I expected him to say something about refurbishment and possible contract extensions).
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    We just took a DVC tour and I asked our guide about this. He basically implied that the contracts would just be allowed to expire and that Disney would raze those resorts to the ground and build new ones. No idea how true that will end up being, of course, but it surprised me in that it seemed so extreme (I expected him to say something about refurbishment and possible contract extensions).
    I think extensive refurb is more likely, especially depending on economics. They would want to have them in the current version of the association under current rules, so call it BVT1 would be getting phased out in favor of BVT2+ (Riviera and Reflections are BVT 2.0).

    Guides know nothing of long term strategy. Current execs know nothing either. The people who will be calling the shots on this are currently sitting in Kindergarten eating paste.
     

    Momtomouselover

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 10, 2009
    Razing to the ground and rebuilding seems extreme to me. Although I suppose if the cash is there and they want a whole different set up it’s possible. I do think they will become part of “BVT2.0” though and that is what made me ask the question. Maybe extended contracts, if offered, would be the case for some resorts since I don’t see working on them, all at the same time.
     

    Matty B13

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 13, 2016
    Sometimes new construction costs the same or less for some new projects. DVC might want to also add a few floors to buildings in those areas, which would take extensive reconstruction of the current buildings or (which is much easier) build from the ground up.
     

    jarestel

    DIS Veteran
    DIS Lifetime Sponsor
    Joined
    Oct 24, 2003
    Except for the small percentage of each sold out DVC resort that Disney maintains ownership of, DVC doesn't make (or cost) Disney a dime. It's all paid for and maintained by the membership. If all of the 2042 resorts closed tomorrow, the impact on the Disney Company would be negligible. In fact, one could make the case that if control of the entire resort(s) reverts to Disney they can rent them and keep all of the money.

    Building brand new DVC units would net them millions of dollars in profit. Extensions are only viable if they get a large majority of owners to bite and the price is high enough to justify the time and expense.
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    Sometimes new construction costs the same or less for some new projects.
    Maybe. Depends on if carbon taxes start coming into play. A recent Nobel winner has proposed them, as have a number of other agencies. Carbon taxes would completely change the build vs. rehab economics.

    Also, invasive snakes:

     

    TCRAIG

    Member Since 2010 SS/OKW/HH/BCV/WLV/BLT/GF
    Joined
    Jun 17, 2011
    I can see them razing some DVC and not others - Beach Club for instance - they may decide a tower with oodles of rooms might make enough $$$$$ to justify starting from scratch than just a big time rehab of the old rooms.
     

    chalee94

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 14, 2006
    Maybe extended contracts, if offered, would be the case for some resorts since I don’t see working on them, all at the same time.
    This has been discussed numerous times. I'm still betting against extensions. Partly because the OKW extension went so poorly - partly to reprice the point charts and add the resorts to BVTC 2.0.

    They can always rent villas until they resell the contracts as new.
     

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