Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?-Analytics (Long)

[JimmyV]

Updating this thread to reveal the "actual" June hours (as opposed to "projected hours" as of the first of the month.) To recap, at the beginning of June, the posted/projected hours revealed a significant cut in total hours. They were (as compared to 2015)...

2015:
Included hours = 469. EMHs (a.m.)= 4. EMH (p.m.) = 8 HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 128. EMHs = 8. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 42. EMH = 4. HT = 0
Number of days with an Included closing time of 11:00 = 0. 12:00 = 22. 1:00 = 8

2016:
Included hours = 436. EMHs (a.m.)= 4. EMH (p.m.) = 10 Hard Ticket hours = 10
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 95. EMHs = 10. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 40. EMH = 4. HT = 10
Number of days with an Included closing time of 11:00 = 25. 12:00 = 5. 1:00 = 0

[For the full post and analysis, see Post #175 above].

Earlier in the thread, poster dlavender gave us a comparison of 2016 projections compared to actual operating hours for the months of June 2011 through 2015. (See Post #129 for the full content). They were:

June 1-30th 2011 - 439 Included hours + 36 EMH = 475
June 1-30th 2012 - 426 Included hours + 35 EMH= 461
June 1-30th 2013 - 431 Included hours + 13 EMH = 444
June 1-30th 2014 - 461 Included hours + 11 EMH = 472
June 1-30th 2015 - 469 Included hours + 12 EMH = 481
June 1-30th 2016 - 425 Included hours + 14 EMH = 439

Starting way back in, oh...January?...posters were predicting that hours would be extended and that the relatively early closing times would get extended as resort bookings filled up and attendance could be better predicted. bbjunkie's post perfectly outlined what many hoped to be true. We all were hoping that she was right:

I honestly think they are waiting to expand June hours at MK until they see how crowds are disbursed with the significant increase in hours at AK. At this point they can only speculate the crowd differences. I think it's entirely possible that we won't see increases in second-half June evening hours until a couple of weeks after the evening hours and activities are open at AK.

Well, June 30 has come and gone, so let's see what actually happened:

• Included hours = 435, which is 34 fewer than last year.
• EMHs (a.m.)= 4, which is the same as last year.
• EMH (p.m.) = 10, which is two more than last year, but this is accounted for by where the days of the week fell on the calendar.
• Hard Ticket hours = 10, (all in the morning), which is 10 more than last year.
• Included Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m. = 95. Last year it was 128. That is 33 fewer cooler evening hours to enjoy.
• Included Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m. = 40. Last year it was 41. No real change here.
• Number of days with an Included closing time of 11:00 = 25. 12:00 = 5. 1:00 = 0. Last year it was 0/22/8. The introduction of the 11:00 closing time is the real separator between last year and this year.
• Number of days with 14 Total Included Operating Hours=17; 15 Hours=11; 16 Hours=2 and 17 Hours=0. Last year it was 14 Hours=0; 15 Hours=15; 16 Hours=11 and 17 Hours=4. So last year, if you wanted a day at the MK that included 16 or more hours, you had 15 chances to do that, which is half the month. This year, you had 2 chances to do that, June 20 and June 22.

So the idea that Disney wouldn't possibly decrease its hours so drastically, and as we get closer in time to the actual month (or day), hours will be extended, isn't coming to fruition. We didn't see it at Easter. We didn't see it in May. And we didn't see it in June. What you see a month or so ahead is pretty much what you get.

 

[mom2rtk]

Thank you for your very thorough follow through on this JimmyV!

 

[mom2rtk]

And I concur that it's no longer valid to just assume the hours will be added and people should probably stop using that as the standard answer.

 

[dlavender]

Updating this thread to reveal the "actual" June hours (as opposed to "projected hours" as of the first of the month.) To recap, at the beginning of June, the posted/projected hours revealed a significant cut in total hours. They were (as compared to 2015)...

[For the full post and analysis, see Post #175 above].

Earlier in the thread, poster dlavender gave us a comparison of 2016 projections compared to actual operating hours for the months of June 2011 through 2015. (See Post #129 for the full content). They were:



Starting way back in, oh...January?...posters were predicting that hours would be extended and that the relatively early closing times would get extended as resort bookings filled up and attendance could be better predicted. bbjunkie's post perfectly outlined what many hoped to be true. We all were hoping that she was right:



Well, June 30 has come and gone, so let's see what actually happened:

• Included hours = 435, which is 34 fewer than last year.
• EMHs (a.m.)= 4, which is the same as last year.
• EMH (p.m.) = 10, which is two more than last year, but this is accounted for by where the days of the week fell on the calendar.
• Hard Ticket hours = 10, (all in the morning), which is 10 more than last year.
• Included Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m. = 95. Last year it was 128. That is 33 fewer cooler evening hours to enjoy.
• Included Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m. = 40. Last year it was 41. No real change here.
• Number of days with an Included closing time of 11:00 = 25. 12:00 = 5. 1:00 = 0. Last year it was 0/22/8. The introduction of the 11:00 closing time is the real separator between last year and this year.
• Number of days with 14 Total Included Operating Hours=17; 15 Hours=11; 16 Hours=2 and 17 Hours=0. Last year it was 14 Hours=0; 15 Hours=15; 16 Hours=11 and 17 Hours=4. So last year, if you wanted a day at the MK that included 16 or more hours, you had 15 chances to do that, which is half the month. This year, you had 2 chances to do that, June 20 and June 22.

So the idea that Disney wouldn't possibly decrease its hours so drastically, and as we get closer in time to the actual month (or day), hours will be extended, isn't coming to fruition. We didn't see it at Easter. We didn't see it in May. And we didn't see it in June. What you see a month or so ahead is pretty much what you get.

Thanks for wrapping this up for us! I'm surprised that they would turn back MK hours to 2013's level. Im confident that if polled, Disney customer's would prefer expanded MK hours YOY vs what is being offered at AK. One can hope that this is just an experiment and hours will continue to increase YOY starting next year.

 

[whiporee]

I think the 11 general admission close is the new standard. I'm curious as to whether this sets up for more DAH next year, or whether they're just closing early in the future. if I'm reading you right, what we've had is 25 fewer post-11 pm hours this year than last -- so on average people lost a potential hour a day.

Thanks for the numbers, Jimmy. Data is always appreciated.

 

[Srbright]

• Included hours = 435, which is 34 fewer than last year.
• EMHs (a.m.)= 4, which is the same as last year.
• EMH (p.m.) = 10, which is two more than last year, but this is accounted for by where the days of the week fell on the calendar.
• Hard Ticket hours = 10, (all in the morning), which is 10 more than last year.
• Included Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m. = 95. Last year it was 128. That is 33 fewer cooler evening hours to enjoy.
• Included Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m. = 40. Last year it was 41. No real change here.
• Number of days with an Included closing time of 11:00 = 25. 12:00 = 5. 1:00 = 0. Last year it was 0/22/8. The introduction of the 11:00 closing time is the real separator between last year and this year.
• Number of days with 14 Total Included Operating Hours=17; 15 Hours=11; 16 Hours=2 and 17 Hours=0. Last year it was 14 Hours=0; 15 Hours=15; 16 Hours=11 and 17 Hours=4. So last year, if you wanted a day at the MK that included 16 or more hours, you had 15 chances to do that, which is half the month. This year, you had 2 chances to do that, June 20 and June 22.

So the idea that Disney wouldn't possibly decrease its hours so drastically, and as we get closer in time to the actual month (or day), hours will be extended, isn't coming to fruition. We didn't see it at Easter. We didn't see it in May. And we didn't see it in June. What you see a month or so ahead is pretty much what you get.

Your data seems solid but your conculsions aren't supporting your arguement. The title of your thread is: "Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?". You have shown that the included hours is 435, 34 fewer than last year. While there were 10 HT hours added in the morning there were still 40 hours of time prior to 10 AM, a loss of only one hour. Your text says "No real change here". This means that the Morning Extra Magic hours had no effect on the amount of time one could sp end in the park prior 10 AM for the month of June. There were no evening "After Hours" events so that had zero effect on the hours.

People say "they will add more hours" because historically if they see the crowds or bookings go up then they increase the hours. That is the part you aren't taken into account when you look at the hours. If the parks are less crowded then Disney has no incentive to stay open to support only a few guests. While it was likely nice to be one of several hundred people in the park at 1 AM, several hundred people isn't where Disney makes the money.

There were no capacity closures in 2015 or so far in 2016 (so says Touring Plans https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/capacity-closures). The nail salon I love no longer stays open until 9 PM during the week. They would only get 1 or 2 customers between 8 & 9 so they moved their hours back to 8 PM. You have to rationalize customer service with business decisions and make the determination if the salaries, electricity and wear and tear on the park are worth it for signifcantly fewer guests.

Stacy

 

[dlavender]

Your data seems solid but your conculsions aren't supporting your arguement. The title of your thread is: "Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?". You have shown that the included hours is 435, 34 fewer than last year. While there were 10 HT hours added in the morning there were still 40 hours of time prior to 10 AM, a loss of only one hour. Your text says "No real change here". This means that the Morning Extra Magic hours had no effect on the amount of time one could sp end in the park prior 10 AM for the month of June. There were no evening "After Hours" events so that had zero effect on the hours.

People say "they will add more hours" because historically if they see the crowds or bookings go up then they increase the hours. That is the part you aren't taken into account when you look at the hours. If the parks are less crowded then Disney has no incentive to stay open to support only a few guests. While it was likely nice to be one of several hundred people in the park at 1 AM, several hundred people isn't where Disney makes the money.

There were no capacity closures in 2015 or so far in 2016 (so says Touring Plans https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/capacity-closures). The nail salon I love no longer stays open until 9 PM during the week. They would only get 1 or 2 customers between 8 & 9 so they moved their hours back to 8 PM. You have to rationalize customer service with business decisions and make the determination if the salaries, electricity and wear and tear on the park are worth it for signifcantly fewer guests.

Stacy

No one knows hour by hour numbers. You could be right. Disney could have noticed that in 2015 no one was in the park past 10 PM.

The only data we have is increased attendance YOY, with a large decrease in hours this year vs the last two years.

I take the title of this thread as a hypothesis. If you notice increased crowds, attendance, and you notice a large decrease in operating hours, you become intrigued. Were people staying past 10 in 2014, and not in 2015, so they dropped those hours in 2016? Or did Disney figure they could carve out some time and repackage it? Is it rational to believe that no one wanted to stay past 10, so they thought they could sell that time for $149? That would be like your hair salon charging a premium for those that wanted to be there after 8 PM. If no one was there, why would they do that? No one truly knows but Disney. All we can do is hypothesize.....

 

[DebbieB]

And I concur that it's no longer valid to just assume the hours will be added and people should probably stop using that as the standard answer.

I think that's true for MK.

With no Star Wars Fireworks on the initial schedule at DHS, I think there's a good chance it will change. My late October trip currently shows 7:00 close every night.

AK who knows with the whole River of Light debacle.

Epcot is always stable.

 

[DisneyFive]

Thank you very much for compiling that JimmyV

You know what. This really sucks. One of the only benefits of us going in early August this year (can't do late Sept anymore ) were the late park hours. I'm assuming that this trend will continue into August. So far MK is closing at 10pm each night in Aug. I can't remember, how close to the beginning of the month has Disney been waiting to update the park hours again? I guess we have to assume 11pm closings.

Dan

 

[JimmyV]

Your data seems solid but your conculsions aren't supporting your arguement. The title of your thread is: "Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?".

Thanks for pointing that out. It bears explanation. Admittedly, this analysis has drifted far from the original intent of the thread, which was created at a time when the now defunct "After Hours" event was going on. The last 6 or so pages of the thread have been limited to a pure year-over-year comparison of hours. To the extent that it wasn't made clear, my conclusion is that neither "After Hours" (which is dead, and therefore cannot impact anything), nor "Early Morning Magic" are impacting Included Hours. The only thing that is impacting Included Hours is Disney's decision to cut them.

 

[JimmyV]

If you notice increased crowds, attendance, and you notice a large decrease in operating hours, you become intrigued.

You forgot one important thing--Increased price. Attendance goes up. Price goes up. Hours go down. That is where the real intrigue lies.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Thank you very much for compiling that JimmyV

You know what. This really sucks. One of the only benefits of us going in early August this year (can't do late Sept anymore ) were the late park hours. I'm assuming that this trend will continue into August. So far MK is closing at 10pm each night in Aug. I can't remember, how close to the beginning of the month has Disney been waiting to update the park hours again? I guess we have to assume 11pm closings.

Dan

Personally, I would assume an actual 10pm closing each night at this point, and be happily surprised if they do change it to 11.

 

[JimmyV]

Personally, I would assume an actual 10pm closing each night at this point, and be happily surprised if they do change it to 11.

Agree. It has been quite some time since unbridled optimism has been rewarded.

 

[kittyab]

For me the extra magic hours are not that important. I am on vacation. I plan to sleep in a little. When I want to go back to my resort for some R/R, I am going to.

Its not fun if everyone in your party is all worn out.

 

[denecarter]

But late hours are really beneficial when you take a break during the hottest part of the day. Luckily, I've been enough that I don't feel the need to do the parks full commando. I'll live with shorter hours, but I really love late nights at the parks!

 

[TheMaxRebo]

This is very interesting and I appreciate all the analysis done

I think it is pretty clear that Disney is closing MK earlier, on average than in the past (plus they didn't have a 24 hour day this year) - which is definitely not cool

Only thing is, they no longer have the evening extra paid hours, so it doesn't seem like they are cutting the hours in order to have these extra paid events - it must be for other reasons. It could be to save money - 1 less hour of the park open is less electricity and less CMs to pay for, combined with higher prices does increase retained earnings. So at least to some extent we can say we are getting less for more - but I don't think the extra paid hours events are the reason why

 

[undertheseas]

Thanks for the analysis JimmyV, I appreciate your effort (even if I don't like the result!)

And I concur that it's no longer valid to just assume the hours will be added and people should probably stop using that as the standard answer.

I think mom2rtk said it well but this stinks, if they don't increase the hours during the summer then it doesn't bode well for those of us traveling at a slower time of year.....

 

[DisneyFive]

Personally, I would assume an actual 10pm closing each night at this point, and be happily surprised if they do change it to 11.

Well, I'm going to assume 11pm based on what's happened in June and July when hours were updated from 10pm to 11pm. 10pm through August will be crazy if it happens.

Dan

 

[A Mickeyfan]

I can remember many many many years back, when Disney (MK) was much cheaper and opened to all guests till midnight and 1am on weekends during summer and holidays. ...oh yes, can anyone else remember this? Seems over time hours have changed, for what ever reason, and prices have gone up faster than incomes. Disney seems to sell you portions of the day now...you can get early morning, bulk of the day, late nights...

 

[JimmyV]

I can remember many many many years back, when Disney (MK) was much cheaper and opened to all guests till midnight and 1am on weekends during summer and holidays. ...oh yes, can anyone else remember this?

On the one hand, yes, I remember those days well. We used to stay at the Contemporary every Summer from 1972-1978 before our family got too big and we started staying at the Villas at Lake Buena Vista, (plowed under to make way for Saratoga Springs). Back then, there were no EMH and midnight seemed to be the norm, with some nights until 1:00. But......on the other hand......one does not have to look back nostalgically to capture that memory. Just look at the 2015 hours for June.

Number of days with an Included closing time of 11:00 = 0. 12:00 = 22. 1:00 = 8

The "good old days" were as recent as last year.