April Incentives - What Are Your Predictions?

[vdangelo239]

Hello,
So here I sit, once again wondering what the next round of incentives will be when they are released on April 2nd.

What do we think? Are we looking at a fire sale of Riv before the Poly tower goes on sale likely in the next round over the late summer? Do we think they'll heavily discount the Cabins due to their slow sale start? Or are they just headstrong and continue on with even weaker incentives than last time?

Personally - I am hoping for a solid Riv sale...but also not holding my breath.

 

[Sandisw]

I think we will see slight increases in incentives but don’t see any level of fire sale for RIV.

 

[InabinettheCabinet]

I think we will see slight increases in incentives but don’t see any level of fire sale for RIV.

What's the eta of when Riviera will be sold out?

 

[vdangelo239]

What's the eta of when Riviera will be sold out?

At its current rate, believe it is years out still.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

My prediction is no matter what incentives are released I'll still feel FOMO about last year's VGF clearance sale

 

[Sandisw]

What's the eta of when Riviera will be sold out?

Think another few years. But, given the popularity of the resort with cash guests, DVD doesn’t seem to be in any rush to get it sold out.

 

[Cabius]

At its current rate, believe it is years out still.

I assume that as long as they can sell the un-sold rooms for cash, they won't be in a hurry to fire-sale DVC points, especially with multiple resorts for sale. Also why I don't expect them to push CFW aggressively.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

My prediction is no matter what incentives are released I'll still feel FOMO about last year's VGF clearance sale

I'll always wish I had bought more then!

 

[maui22]

What's the eta of when Riviera will be sold out?

Using https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...y-for-fort-wilderness-cabins-in-february-2024 data.

Riviera has 6,739,966 total points and 4,211,055 are sold. That leaves 2,528,911 points.
Deeds worth 87,647 points showed up on the county web site.
If that pace remained steady, it would be 28.85 months to be sold out.

Disney must maintain ownership of 2% of the resort. Not sure if that is deducted from the total points. If not...
6,606,166 would be the total points they can sell. Leaving 2,395,111 points to be sold.
If same February pace, looking at 27.33 months.

NOTE: deeds can take up to many months to show up on the county web site. For example, someone may spread the payment across multiple months. In that case, the points are sold, but won't show up on the county web site for 3+ months, so they aren't reflected in known sales data.

Many variables will impact how sales are impacted going forward.

 

[vdangelo239]

My prediction is no matter what incentives are released I'll still feel FOMO about last year's VGF clearance sale

well ya....this is the boat I am in as well

 

[BrianLo]

I think this next round of incentives is highly contingent on when they plan to start selling Poly.

It is going to be a quarter on quarter comparison with the rather robust initial VDH sales. If Poly won't be on sale prior to June, they may want to plump up their current incentives in a good way.

Poor incentives to me affirms Poly will be on sale reasonably (i.e. the latest by early June) in this upcoming quarter.

 

[maui22]

I think this next round of incentives is highly contingent on when they plan to start selling Poly.

It is going to be a quarter on quarter comparison with the rather robust initial VDH sales. If Poly won't be on sale prior to June, they may want to plump up their current incentives in a good way.

Poor incentives to me affirms Poly will be on sale reasonably (i.e. the latest by early June) in this upcoming quarter.

Might the incentives also be influenced by the shareholder vote? Isn’t the meeting and final vote next week?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Might the incentives also be influenced by the shareholder vote? Isn’t the meeting and final vote next week?

It wouldn’t have any impact in the fiscal results being reported at that time.

 

[maui22]

It wouldn’t have any impact in the fiscal results being reported at that time.

Understand that part of it.

Delay any Poly announcement until after the proxy vote is over with? Poly sales likely don’t start until May or June, so maybe boost sales for the existing properties with better incentives during April. Poly will sell itself the first couple months. CFW is the one that needs a boost most of all because of the high dues.

 

[Sandisw]

Understand that part of it.

Delay any Poly announcement until after the proxy vote is over with? Poly sales likely don’t start until May or June, so maybe boost sales for the existing properties with better incentives during April. Poly will sell itself the first couple months. CFW is the one that needs a boost most of all because of the high dues.

I’d be very surprised to see sales begin before July.

 

[CastAStone]

I don’t expect a significant change. DVC seems to be selling well.

Maybe things get a little richer because hotel bookings are so weak in 2024? The idea being it’s better to get more of these rooms out of the system to increase overall sell-out rates.

There may also be one of those limited time save an extra $2000 or whatever offers that only lasts 2 weeks or so.

But I think more likely it’s nothing meaningful.

 

[Straulin]

Has DVC ever had five resorts in active sales before? We are currently sitting at 4 (AUL, RIV, CFW, DLT). In various things I have watched / read from former guides, they don’t want to have too many options for buyers as they get confused and don’t impulse buy.

So my guess is there will be a fire sale on RIV just before Poly is ready. That is why they did VGF before the cabins came online.

So April probably won’t be a big change. Not sure of the Poly timeline but I expect six months prior to opening they will deeply discount RIV.

 

[CastAStone]

Has DVC ever had five resorts in active sales before? We are currently sitting at 4 (AUL, RIV, CFW, DLT). In various things I have watched / read from former guides, they don’t want to have too many options for buyers as they get confused and don’t impulse buy.

So my guess is there will be a fire sale on RIV just before Poly is ready. That is why they did VGF before the cabins came online.

So April probably won’t be a big change. Not sure of the Poly timeline but I expect six months prior to opening they will deeply discount RIV.

I believe BLT, AKV, AUL, VGC, and SSR were all on sale simultaneously for a short period of time in 2010.

 

[CastAStone]

So my guess is there will be a fire sale on RIV just before Poly is ready. That is why they did VGF before the cabins came online

And while I think there’s too much Riviera to fire sale, they did basically fire sale BLT and SSR at the end to ensure they had space for the launch of VGF (VGC sold out in the mean time as well).

 

[Cabius]

Might the incentives also be influenced by the shareholder vote? Isn’t the meeting and final vote next week?

Short of something insane like lighting all of the buildings on fire, nothing they do with DVC is going to make a material impact on the shareholder vote. Decisions like this aren't just too low on the radar, they aren't on the radar at all. They're several decks below, stuffed between a few oversized bags in the luggage compartment.