AP sales…

[RoseGold]

I find these "all you bought was a room" responses hilarious. Even after Covid, these boards were full of people squeezing out a few hundred dollars on APs as the reason to buy direct.

Of course the behavior of the parks impact us. Plenty of us, including me, wouldn't have even considered DVC if APs weren't an option. I view DVC as much riskier than when I bought in because of this behavior, and I have an AP.

If APs come back, I think they will be more expensive and more blacked out than people are used to. That's fine with me, heck, I'd be OK on a Pixie Dust pass. But I think they will actually become filler for undesirable days. And IMO, there's no way this mess with the APs isn't impacting the value of my DVC contracts.

 

[RivShore]

most people use their ownership to visit around town and or do resort stays only.

This can't be true. Is there any data to support that 51%+ of DVC stays do not utilize the parks?

 

[WilsonFlyer]

This can't be true. Is there any data to support that 51%+ of DVC stays do not utilize the parks?

Yeah. Somebody pulled that one out of thin air. That number isn't even close to being right unless there's empirical data somewhere, and there's not. Disney would be the only one that could authenticate it, and they wouldn't, especially if it was true.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

OK. Here's an elephant in this room. How many DVC owners got caught out without an annual pass because they were using the "bridging" technique and it was an "off-year?" Bridging, as I understand it was buying an AP and then squeezing two annual trips into it; one close to the beginning of the current pass year and the other close to the end of the pass year (maybe with some in between. Then, letting the AP lapse and waiting almost a year to buy a new one on their next trip -- in the next calendar year. So when they were in the off year without an annual pass is when the sales of new annual passes shut down.

That bridging technique was obviously playing with Disney's profits on annual passes. I have no idea how many DVC owners were doing that.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

OK. Here's an elephant in this room. How many DVC owners got caught out without an annual pass because they were using the "bridging" technique and it was an "off-year?" Bridging, as I understand it was buying an AP and then squeezing two annual trips into it; one close to the beginning of the current pass year and the other close to the end of the pass year (maybe with some in between. Then, letting the AP lapse and waiting almost a year to buy a new one on their next trip -- in the next calendar year. So when they were in the off year without an annual pass is when the sales of new annual passes shut down.

I am certain that has already happened to a lot of people. It would have happened to us, had they not closed AP sales just before we were supposed to renew. We speculated the then invisible writing on the wall and didn't take the risk, so we are safe. The writing's not so invisible anymore.

 

[RoseGold]

OK. Here's an elephant in this room. How many DVC owners got caught out without an annual pass because they were using the "bridging" technique and it was an "off-year?" Bridging, as I understand it was buying an AP and then squeezing two annual trips into it

They were only for sale for a couple months. There was no need to buy it right this minute unless you were going soon, based on all historical precedent. And they're EXPENSIVE.

I'm actually not sure why I bought mine as early as I did, months before, except that I didn't trust Disney anymore.

Sure, maybe they were bridging. Or maybe they weren't going until November or January.

 

[lowlight]

OK. Here's an elephant in this room. How many DVC owners got caught out without an annual pass because they were using the "bridging" technique and it was an "off-year?" Bridging, as I understand it was buying an AP and then squeezing two annual trips into it; one close to the beginning of the current pass year and the other close to the end of the pass year (maybe with some in between. Then, letting the AP lapse and waiting almost a year to buy a new one on their next trip -- in the next calendar year. So when they were in the off year without an annual pass is when the sales of new annual passes shut down.

That bridging technique was obviously playing with Disney's profits on annual passes. I have no idea how many DVC owners were doing that.

I didn’t get caught out because I saw what was happening, but how is bridging a “technique”? It’s no different than a local buying an AP and going fifty times that year and then not buying the next year because they are Disneyed out. An AP should stand on its own, no matter how it’s used. There’s no need to make the way people use them sound underhanded or as if they are taking advantage of something.

 

[CarolMN]

OK. Here's an elephant in this room. How many DVC owners got caught out without an annual pass because they were using the "bridging" technique and it was an "off-year?" Bridging, as I understand it was buying an AP and then squeezing two annual trips into it; one close to the beginning of the current pass year and the other close to the end of the pass year (maybe with some in between. Then, letting the AP lapse and waiting almost a year to buy a new one on their next trip -- in the next calendar year. So when they were in the off year without an annual pass is when the sales of new annual passes shut down.

That bridging technique was obviously playing with Disney's profits on annual passes. I have no idea how many DVC owners were doing that.

Would have been caught, but fortunately for us, we bought APs again during the short period they went back on sale. Recently renewed, even though I would have preferred to wait a few months and buy new again.

 

[Miffy]

Would have been caught, but fortunately for us, we bought APs again during the short period they went back on sale. Recently renewed, even though I would have preferred to wait a few months and buy new again.

I learned my lesson on stopping and starting again a few years ago. I thought I was so clever, saving a few bucks, but then I ended up with an unexpected (yay!) trip to WDW and had to buy a new AP at the non-renewal rate and it was a bit of sticker shock, since I'd been used to renewing. After that, I decided I'd never let it lapse again. I briefly contemplated canceling it during 2020, but decided to keep it anyway. I probably lost a few bucks, because there was a long period when we didn't go, but right now I'm very very glad I kept renewing.

I told myself that my non-canceled AP during 2020 was helping to pay for taking care of the animals at DAK and AKL, which made me feel like the money went to a good cause.

Edited for clarity and new info.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

I didn’t get caught out because I saw what was happening, but how is bridging a “technique”? It’s no different than a local buying an AP and going fifty times that year and then not buying the next year because they are Disneyed out. An AP should stand on its own, no matter how it’s used. There’s no need to make the way people use them sound underhanded or as if they are taking advantage of something.

IMHO, they were "taking advantage" using a method, technique etc to cut costs. Taking advantage of something does not equate with "under-handed. There is no negative connotation.
I did not imply it was under-handed by any means. IMHO, saving money is smart, not under-handed. I understand some TAs and CMs even recommended it.

But, I do think that is how a whole lot of DVC people got caught out without an AP. It was a technique that involved some risk since Disney's fine print did state that sales could stop at any time. They took a risk. That's my point. They took a risk. More than one Disney World blog warned of selling out and limited numbers -- before they even went on sale last September 8th. So, somebody told them that.

Here's an example.

"But NOTE!! To help with attendance numbers, Disney will be limiting the number of Annual Passes on sale. This means the new Annual Passes CAN sell out. So, if you’re planning to purchase a pass on September 8th, be sure to set your alarms so you have a better chance of snagging one! We’ll remind you when Annual Passes go on sale, so stay tuned for the latest Disney news." (https://www.disneyfoodblog.com/2021...for-disney-world-and-there-have-been-changes/, Accessed 2022-09-16.)​

​

Disney's terms and conditions also say the same thing.

Those who bought new annual passes last fall cannot all be new AP customers without a history of previously owning an AP. There is a figure floating around that 40% of the sales of APs, when new sales were open, were to "new" passholders. But, "new passholders" by Disney's definition could mean former passholders who had let their previous AP lapse and then bought again -- like the bridging technique. So, I was thinking some DVC owners got caught out and there were fewer actual brand new passholders added.

BTW, my Platinum Plus that I had been renewing annually expired in April 2019 -- because we moved 3,000 miles away, not because I ""Disneyed out." Life events and all that. Back now and I have a Pixie -- for now.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Here's another one that warned of selling out.

"Disney announced a new Annual Pass system with four new tiers of passes and changes to the program in general. The blockout days for select passes have changed, prices are a little different, and non-Florida resident options for Annual Passes are very limited. That’s a lot of new changes to keep track of! And here’s one more change that you should be aware of before buying your new Disney World Annual Pass.​

​

Disney announced that the new Annual Passes CAN sell out! The number of passes is limited, so at any time Annual Passes may be unavailable for purchase." (https://allears.net/2021/08/30/disney-world-confirms-annual-pass-sales-will-be-limited/, Accessed 2022/09/16.)​

My point is this is now the nature of the new character passes. When they have enough inventory to sustain sales for a reasonable period they will re-open new AP sales. But, when they do, the demand will be enormous. They are likely to use a virtual queue and the sale period may be very short.

Also, when someone doesn't renew because they are upset with Disney, not only does that put their APs back in inventory, it also has an added positive effect for Disney of letting go of a dissatisfied customer -- for them, a "loose cannon."

 

[quandrea]

I was one of those people who would use an AP heavily for its duration and then let it lapse. They got too expensive to hold every year, and really, how often do I actually need to be in the parks. On our off years, we’d do resort only stays. I buy five APs so it’s a huge outlay of cash. I will continue in this manner should APs ever return. I just can’t justify renewing every single year. If I get caught without being able to buy an AP, perhaps I’ll buy tickets for a day or two. Disney will definitely see less revenue from me.

 

[RoseGold]

On our off years, we’d do resort only stays. I buy five APs so it’s a huge outlay of cash. I will continue in this manner should APs ever return. I just can’t justify renewing every single year. If I get caught without being able to buy an AP, perhaps I’ll buy tickets for a day or two. Disney will definitely see less revenue from me.

Assuming they continue to be offered sporadically (big assumption).... You could still plan around this if they offer them, say, in February. You just activate it in August and use like you did before and plan not to be able to renew until some random future date.

I'm assuming my AP is it for my family and there won't be more. So we are going to go big on this pass. And then maybe that's the end.

 

[jo-jo]

I was one of those people who would use an AP heavily for its duration and then let it lapse. They got too expensive to hold every year, and really, how often do I actually need to be in the parks.

We have 300 points, one year make a few trips with banking and current year. Use 500 -600 points and then wait for points to build again. Usually take trip just for us, then trip with kids, then trip just for us.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

We have now passed September 8th, so if it was going to be an annual event, it appears to me it would have been offered close to the beginning of September. I don't think it is an annual event. I don't think it will have an annual or seasonal rhythm. If they re-open new sales it is likely to be "sporadic" like Rose Gold said. It is not driven by a "low season." In fact, I could well see Disney going two or three years or more between opening new sales -- especially if people are vowing to renew solely because of fear of being left behind.

I kind of think the bridging technique, which only worked for sure when sales were open and reliable, is now a failed technique for the future. For those DVC or other Disney fans who thought they were going to renew in March at Spring Break (for example) but now it is just 6 months later than they wanted, those people are going to have to back up and re-evaluate. I repeat, it is now the nature of these new passes that the sales will not be continuous. They have a cap limit on the number distributed and they did and will sell out. Disney executives acknowledge this and affirmatively state they have other tools/levers to bring up attendance if need be. Admittedly it is fluid, a deep recession could trigger something else by Disney. But, it is not just crowded parks, shortage of staff, closed attractions, a crowded holiday season or the other things that people have guessed were the reason sales were paused. It is the new nature of these character annual passes. This was a big, big sea change that was posted by the blogs, but a lot of people ignored.

When the nature of a product changes this drastically, it is time for the consumer to step back, take a look at it and either fund it or change course. Live life, but don't do it "on hold" for future annual passes that might be very different than those you owned pre-pandemic. Read the terms and conditions. Understand it and make a decision for you and your loved ones.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

We have 300 points, one year make a few trips with banking and current year. Use 500 -600 points and then wait for points to build again. Usually take trip just for us, then trip with kids, then trip just for us.

That's another technique that worked well with continuous sales of annual passes. Would you do this kind of planning if you knew you either had to renew your annual passes every single year and never skip a year? The only other reliable alternative is to let the annual passes expire and plan to buy tickets when you do go. Maybe you can get a sale.

 

[jo-jo]

That's another technique that worked well with continuous sales of annual passes. Would you do this kind of planning if you knew you either had to renew your annual passes every single year and never skip a year? The only other reliable alternative is to let the annual passes expire and plan to buy tickets when you do go. Maybe you can get a sale.

We aren't a good subject. We are coming to the end of our trips. But if this was 7-8 years ago, and AP cost 800-1200. I'd take one long trip. Take the kids for part of the trip. Use 10 days tickets and rent out rest of points. Yes, Disney is still getting money from someone, but not me. I'm not spending a grand just to sit in a drawer for a year. Part of our planning back then (and this has changed too) was having credits with SW. Use them up within one year.

 

[CarolynFH]

Use 10 days tickets

If the AP cost less than the 10-day ticket, which would you buy?

 

[Madame]

What’s burning my bacon now is the allowance of those newly 3/4 year olds grandfathered in & allowed a new purchase. If they’re capping the number and not releasing any until enough choose not to renew, then this is slowing that release down. And if it’s lawsuit related, they’re adding more potential complainants. Make it make sense.

 

[jo-jo]

If the AP cost less than the 10-day ticket, which would you buy?

yes. That would be goofy not to. I've said this about 50 times, I'd love the pixie pass.