My feeling is that with the AP price increase and the continuing climbing costs of merchandise in the park, Disney would be better off leaving the merchandise discount so as not to generate any further ill will. That being said though, Disney seems to be chugging along just fine despite all of these price increases, so I guess the discount could always fall prey to more of the let's see what the market will bear attitude that we've been getting out of Disney lately.
Last year, the CMs in the park knew by November that the merchandise discount was going to be extended beyond the end of the year. There was also an update around maybe mid-November on the AP website letting passholders know that the discount was going to be extended again. So maybe we will hear something in the next month or so.