AP blockouts - double vs. triple

[alvernon90]

There has been quite a bit of reporting on these boards over the past couple of years that the lightest days in the parks are Saturdays in summer, which is widely assumed to be due to the "triple" blockout -- So Cal, So Cal Select, and Deluxe APs are all blocked, leaving the parks nice and empty.

On most summer days, however, it is only a "double" blockout, where deluxe APs are still allowed in. What impact does this have on the crowds? Are deluxe APs a significant percentage of overall APs, making "double" blockout days no better than non-blocked days?

I understand that the day visitor crowds are expected to be bigger on double blockout days, which is why the two AP categories are blocked out. But when a triple blockout makes a "busy" day light, am I hoping for too much when I hope that double blockout weekdays are also relatively light (as opposed to, say, a weekend in May with no blockouts)?

 

[figment_jii]

There has been quite a bit of reporting on these boards over the past couple of years that the lightest days in the parks are Saturdays in summer, which is widely assumed to be due to the "triple" blockout -- So Cal, So Cal Select, and Deluxe APs are all blocked, leaving the parks nice and empty.

I don't think any of the summer days are "empty" in the parks. I think some days have lower crowds, but still not low crowds. I haven't to DLR in the height of summer for a while, but I have been more recently in early June. The weekend crowds were still present. Saturday mornings were fairly manageable, but by afternoon/evening, the crowds had ramped up to what one would expect for a summer day.

But when a triple blockout makes a "busy" day light, am I hoping for too much when I hope that double blockout weekdays are also relatively light (as opposed to, say, a weekend in May with no blockouts)?

Sorry, but yes, I think you're going to be setting yourself up for disappointment if you're expecting "relatively light" crowds on any given day in the summer, although it depends on what you mean by "relatively." My experience is that a weekday in summer is like a weekend during the non-holiday, but good weather season...in other words, the crowds are manageable as long as you are not expecting walk-on conditions at the major rides.

 

[HydroGuy]

There has been quite a bit of reporting on these boards over the past couple of years that the lightest days in the parks are Saturdays in summer, which is widely assumed to be due to the "triple" blockout -- So Cal, So Cal Select, and Deluxe APs are all blocked, leaving the parks nice and empty.

On most summer days, however, it is only a "double" blockout, where deluxe APs are still allowed in. What impact does this have on the crowds? Are deluxe APs a significant percentage of overall APs, making "double" blockout days no better than non-blocked days?

I understand that the day visitor crowds are expected to be bigger on double blockout days, which is why the two AP categories are blocked out. But when a triple blockout makes a "busy" day light, am I hoping for too much when I hope that double blockout weekdays are also relatively light (as opposed to, say, a weekend in May with no blockouts)?

I would disagree with this statement. I would say there has been some reporting of that but frankly I am not convinced. That Sunday is busier than Saturday because of the DAP Saturday blockout I can and do believe. But Wednesdays more crowded than Saturdays? I would have to see some real hard numbers to be convinced.

I do not think you can compare blockout days for different APs at different types of the year. APs are important to attendance but not the dominant contributor. Unless you are talking about a trip in June when something significantly new has just opened.

 

[alvernon90]

I would disagree with this statement. I would say there has been some reporting of that but frankly I am not convinced. That Sunday is busier than Saturday because of the DAP Saturday blockout I can and do believe. But Wednesdays more crowded than Saturdays? I would have to see some real hard numbers to be convinced.

I'm not sure anyone on these boards would have the hard numbers you need to convince you, but how about Al Lutz?

If you are planning a summer visit to the Resort, take advantage of at least one Saturday to hit the parks as that is always the least crowded day of the week.

I'm not sure if this is really true when you look at the hard numbers, but it certainly seems to me that we have seen threads attesting to this. Certainly it would only apply in the summer, because that is when you see the most AP blockouts. I have no plans for a Saturday visit this summer, but I would certainly be curious to see a summer Saturday these days.

 

[sheetz]

Touring Plans has also written about the phenomenon and I think according to their numbers Saturday has been the least busy day during the Summer.

 

[HydroGuy]

I'm not sure anyone on these boards would have the hard numbers you need to convince you, but how about Al Lutz?

I'm not sure if this is really true when you look at the hard numbers, but it certainly seems to me that we have seen threads attesting to this. Certainly it would only apply in the summer, because that is when you see the most AP blockouts. I have no plans for a Saturday visit this summer, but I would certainly be curious to see a summer Saturday these days.

Thanks for the link.

It could be true. Al does not claim any hard numbers but just says it is so. Maybe he is right. He does often quote hard numbers like he does for the AP count. It would seem if he had hard numbers he would share them as he usually does.

I guess one such indicator would be the count of folks through the turnstile each day when their pass is scanned for the first time. Disney of course has that.

I see occasional reports around here about Saturdays being less crowded, all anecdotal of course because no one really has the data outside Disney.

I am just saying I have hard time getting my head around it. Could be true. Would be a strange turn of events.

 

[alvernon90]

Thanks for the link.

It could be true. Al does not claim any hard numbers but just says it is so. Maybe he is right. He does often quote hard numbers like he does for the AP count. It would seem if he had hard numbers he would share them as he usually does.

I guess one such indicator would be the count of folks through the turnstile each day when their pass is scanned for the first time. Disney of course has that.

I see occasional reports around here about Saturdays being less crowded, all anecdotal of course because no one really has the data outside Disney.

I am just saying I have hard time getting my head around it. Could be true. Would be a strange turn of events.

The most interesting thing about that article is the part where he says that Disney tried to reduce the number of AP holders, but instead people just spent more money upgrading to deluxe or premium APs. Perhaps only the triple blockout can make a difference in light of the new normal.

 

[figment_jii]

I suppose it's also a matter of how you look at it. The Lutz article says that "Saturday will be the least busy day of the week through August because all but the Premium passes are blocked out that day", but it does not say that it will not be busy. So maybe it is the least busy of the days in the week, but I still think it's going to be busy because it's the summer. In other words, I don't think it's going to be "empty" or "light" crowds in DL/DCA on Saturdays in the summer even if the other days of the week are even more busy.

The most interesting thing about that article is the part where he says that Disney tried to reduce the number of AP holders, but instead people just spent more money upgrading to deluxe or premium APs. Perhaps only the triple blockout can make a difference in light of the new normal.

The summer is a bad time to try an assess how the crowds will respond to black out dates because two out of four APs are blocked for a solid period of time. As the article says, they'll wait and see how things go in September when all levels of AP are valid for at least some days of the week.

 

[alvernon90]

I suppose it's also a matter of how you look at it. The Lutz article says that "Saturday will be the least busy day of the week through August because all but the Premium passes are blocked out that day", but it does not say that it will not be busy. So maybe it is the least busy of the days in the week, but I still think it's going to be busy because it's the summer.

I expect that you are right, but this is definitely the question I was asking. I had taken the "Saturday is the lightest day now" idea as a given, though HG challenged that assumption with good reason -- it certainly is counterintuitive, and thus deserving of strong evidence before we believe it. For me, I've heard enough anecdotes to believe it is true.

What I am wondering is whether this new reality means that going during "slow times of year" like mid-week in September is still a good idea. It used to be that you traded shorter hours, less entertainment, and more rehabs for lower crowds. But now I wonder if going on a Saturday in June is the new best time, because you have the park at full operation for a full day but the crowds are relatively light -- not as light as a true off-day, but much lighter than a typical full day.

Even assuming Saturday is the lightest day of the week in summer, I find it hard to believe that blocking out the deluxe APs makes that much of a difference -- that is, a double blockout Wednesday should be as light or lighter than a triple blockout Saturday. The anecdotal reports suggest this is not true, however, and the new Lutz article says there are more deluxe AP holders than ever. Maybe triple blockout really is the key these days.

 

[SultanPprShkr]

i can attest whole heartedly that i go almost exclusively (for the Summer season) on Saturdays because the crowds really are lighter than any other weekday/sunday.

Comparatively, if I go on a Sunday (DAP) or Tues/Wed (D & SoCal), it's so much better to go on Saturdays instead.