AP blackout dates....

[hsmamato2]

so if they start the blackout dates on Dec 16, does that mean for ordinary visitors like myself, that will cut down on some crowding from the 15-18? will it make a difference? I'm thinking of how we're planning to tour... how about the dates Dec 14-20, will the blackouts make a difference in crowds then?

 

[figment_jii]

My generally feeling is that they set the blackout dates based on when they think non-AP guests will be sufficiently high to make for any AP-holders that are blocked out. You might see potentially lower crowds on the 14th and 15th because those are weekdays, but I wouldn't count on a major drop. The weekends (Fri to Sun) will be busy regardless of the AP blockouts. DLR is expecting high crowds from the 16th onward because they've gone to peak one-day ticket pricing from 12/16 through the end of the year.

 

[SMD]

This is the first year that most former Premium APs will lose access to those 2 weeks, so it's hard to say what effect it will have. But for people used to going during those 2 weeks, I imagine they will take the opportunity to go 1 last time as close to the block out. And that has been the pattern for lower level APs before any long block out period. But as PP said, Disney chose those 2 weeks for a reason, and it's because they expect crowds to be high without the lower level APs.