Anyone know why it's so busy right now?

[GADisneyDad14]

Help me out. Hardly ever being a guest at WDW, I have no reason to look at crowd level calendars, but it sounds like they make a prediction and then follow up with what they think the crowd levels actually were, is that correct?

Touring Plans is the one that is perhaps the best/most active in terms of “what we predicted” and “what we saw” data. Many crowd calendars don’t provide that ‘follow up’ piece of the analysis.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I'm done with crowd calendars from now on. The only reason I look at them is for predictions on park hours and events.

 

[mco65]

We have never used the crowd calendars to determine WHEN to go.. although i can see how they might benefit you in determining which park to visit while you are there..... we go when we can and make the best of it. We plan our park days either by ADRs or EMH. Our last 2 trips were ridiculously crowded.. (week between xmas and New Years, week after new years)... Our next trip will be a summer vacation... never been in the summer and its time to find out what all the fuss is about... May-hap i will use a crowd calendar to schedule that trip..

 

[Buckeye218]

So funny to think all those Walmart employees who just got their little raise and dinky 'bonus' are going to take that much needed increase in income and blow it at WDW! Thanks for the laugh!

Whoops...your bias is showing...

 

[hllb]

We have never used the crowd calendars to determine WHEN to go.. although i can see how they might benefit you in determining which park to visit while you are there..... we go when we can and make the best of it. We plan our park days either by ADRs or EMH. Our last 2 trips were ridiculously crowded.. (week between xmas and New Years, week after new years)... Our next trip will be a summer vacation... never been in the summer and its time to find out what all the fuss is about... May-hap i will use a crowd calendar to schedule that trip..

I do use them to select a time that should be less crowded. We can generally go any time of the year so I’d rather shoot for a less crowded time. It’s better than randomly picking a week. It’s worked fantastically in the past. This time, maybe not. We’ll see in a week!

 

[hllb]

It’s looking like another crowded day today. Most of the headliners have no more FPs available for today.

 

[Dug720]

I'm done with crowd calendars from now on. The only reason I look at them is for predictions on park hours and events.

Yep.

The thing to remember is they are *predictions* and predictions by their very nature are not going to be accurate.

Very much like meteorology. Even with all the science meteorologists have they sometimes miss things. I remember when I lived in Raleigh, NC there was one night I went to bed and they were predicting “A dusting of snow. Maybe 1-3 inches tops.” I woke up to 20.3 inches of snow all around. Literally NO meteorologist saw that storm blow up like it did.

Those making the predictions do the best they can with the information at their disposal, but there is no way to ever be 100% accurate all the time. Not even close.

Use them to get an idea of what it might be like - or for hours, etc. - but don’t swear by them or get mad when they aren’t accurate. They were never guaranteed to be.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Yep.

The thing to remember is they are *predictions* and predictions by their very nature are not going to be accurate.

Very much like meteorology. Even with all the science meteorologists have they sometimes miss things. I remember when I lived in Raleigh, NC there was one night I went to bed and they were predicting “A dusting of snow. Maybe 1-3 inches tops.” I woke up to 20.3 inches of snow all around. Literally NO meteorologist saw that storm blow up like it did.

Those making the predictions do the best they can with the information at their disposal, but there is no way to ever be 100% accurate all the time. Not even close.

Use them to get an idea of what it might be like - or for hours, etc. - but don’t swear by them or get mad when they aren’t accurate. They were never guaranteed to be.

Park hours are never guaranteed. I'm guessing most of us who have been enough times in the last few years know this. We also know that crowd calendars are pretty much useless now. That was my point.

Looking at historical calendars and future calendars together can give you a good idea of when parties and/or EMH will be.

I understand what the word prediction means.

 

[Dug720]

Park hours are never guaranteed. I'm guessing most of us who have been enough times in the last few years know this. We also know that crowd calendars are pretty much useless now. That was my point.

Looking at historical calendars and future calendars together can give you a good idea of when parties and/or EMH will be.

I understand what the word prediction means.

Oh, I wasn’t meaning to imply that you didn’t understand. I was really agreeing with your post about using them for hour and event predictions.

Just reading the thread it seems like some people think that the predictions are supposed to be more guaranteed.

 

[hllb]

Oh, I wasn’t meaning to imply that you didn’t understand. I was really agreeing with your post about using them for hour and event predictions.

Just reading the thread it seems like some people think that the predictions are supposed to be more guaranteed.

I don’t think anyone believes that, but historically, they have been much more accurate than they have been this month. January seems to have varied from predictions much more than is typical.

 

[Wubar]

Yep.

The thing to remember is they are *predictions* and predictions by their very nature are not going to be accurate.

Very much like meteorology. Even with all the science meteorologists have they sometimes miss things. I remember when I lived in Raleigh, NC there was one night I went to bed and they were predicting “A dusting of snow. Maybe 1-3 inches tops.” I woke up to 20.3 inches of snow all around. Literally NO meteorologist saw that storm blow up like it did.

Those making the predictions do the best they can with the information at their disposal, but there is no way to ever be 100% accurate all the time. Not even close.

Use them to get an idea of what it might be like - or for hours, etc. - but don’t swear by them or get mad when they aren’t accurate. They were never guaranteed to be.

Totally agree with this. But people will complain if they don't get seated within 30 seconds of their ADR time, if the crowd predictor predicted a 7 and it was actually an 8, etc...

 

[SaintsManiac]

Oh, I wasn’t meaning to imply that you didn’t understand. I was really agreeing with your post about using them for hour and event predictions.

Just reading the thread it seems like some people think that the predictions are supposed to be more guaranteed.

Gotcha!

Also, on the flip side, if I paid attention to crowd calendars to plan our trip we would not have had as many magical moments as we did over Thanksgiving.

It's all a buncha hoopla IMO

 

[hllb]

Haha, we posted at the same time.

I just wonder why. I mean, I get that it's always crowded now, but I'm really curious as to what why the predictions are so off.

I’ve noticed the last few days there haven’t been many (or any!) same day FPs available by mid-morning. On the upside, I just checked my trip FPs, and with the exception of 7DMT, FEA, FoP, and Navi, there were lots of FPs available for the bigger rides, even in the late morning.

 

[Dug720]

Totally agree with this. But people will complain if they don't get seated within 30 seconds of their ADR time, if the crowd predictor predicted a 7 and it was actually an 8, etc...

Very true.

I would like to know what magical world they live in outside of Disney where reservations are always seated exactly on time. Very often in my real-world experience I still have to wait for a little once I check in. Part of the nature of humanity being unpredictable.

 

[DebbieB]

Touring Plans has a link to how they did the day before. Yesterday the prediction at MK was a 6, actual was 9. AK was predicted a 5, actual was 9.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Touring Plans has a link to how they did the day before. Yesterday the prediction at MK was a 6, actual was 9. AK was predicted a 5, actual was 9.

Yeah, they missed this weekend. It definitely happens. I don’t think that means they’re not worth looking at. People acknowledge that a prediction is a prediction like the weather. Most people still check the weather even though sometimes it’s wrong. It typically tells you when you need a coat or an umbrella or your best touring plan and you expect that sometimes they’re wrong. I think it’s better to know in general what to expect but also understand that it may tell you it’s clear skies ahead when you needed that umbrella. Know what to expect but have your poncho and your plan B in your backpack.

 

[DebbieB]

Yeah, they missed this weekend. It definitely happens. I don’t think that means they’re not worth looking at. People acknowledge that a prediction is a prediction like the weather. Most people still check the weather even though sometimes it’s wrong. It typically tells you when you need a coat or an umbrella or your best touring plan and you expect that sometimes they’re wrong. I think it’s better to know in general what to expect but also understand that it may tell you it’s clear skies ahead when you needed that umbrella. Know what to expect but have your poncho and your plan B in your backpack.

I didn't mean to imply that they are not worth looking at. Just that this weekend was more crowded than expected. Who would expect a 9 in mid to late January?

 

[SarahC97]

I’ve noticed the last few days there haven’t been many (or any!) same day FPs available by mid-morning. On the upside, I just checked my trip FPs, and with the exception of 7DMT, FEA, FoP, and Navi, there were lots of FPs available for the bigger rides, even in the late morning.

I'm hopeful things will simmer down a bit this week. Hope springs eternal, after all! I know we'll have a great time regardless.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I didn't mean to imply that they are not worth looking at. Just that this weekend was more crowded than expected. Who would expect a 9 in mid to late January?

Yeah, sorry, that part wasn’t directed at you specifically. It’s a common theme throughout a few threads. But you’re right, who would expect 9s in late Jan. That is crazy.

 

[DisneyOma]

Whoops...your bias is showing...

Huh? There's a bias when I think someone making minimum wage can't afford a WDW vacation with a tiny bump in wages? That they'd probably use the money (if it doesn't bump them up to a new bracket, which happened to me once - ended up making less each paycheck) for more important issues? $11 an hour makes you about $23,000 a year, if you are full time, 52 weeks a year. That's gross income, before taxes, SS, insurance, etc. Not sure how realizing someone doesn't make a lot of money is a bias?