Anyone have an estimate on how many resale points are sold each year?

[maui22]

When I added up the points for all DVC resorts, it came to roughly 79.5 million points. Aulani, RIV, and VDH are not sold out and will take at least a couple years before any one of them is sold out. VGF/BPK is close enough that I consider it sold out.

Using dvcnews.com September sales data...
VDH roughly 487,407 of 3,255,992 are sold (leaving 2.75 million)
RIV 3,843,068 of 6,739,966 sold (leaving 2.89 million)
RIV and VDH are currently the only restricted resorts and they will still take 2-3 years to sell their remaining 4.3 million of the original ~10 million points.

For comparison, all the other properties combined have just under 70 million points. (Aulani is not sold out, so probably 62-65 million points at unrestricted O14 resorts have been sold.

Is my math right?

I believe resales restrictions started in 2019.
How many resale points happen each year (obviously Covid caused significant fluctuations between panic, no travel, revenge travel, people flush with cash, etc)?
Does anyone have any data? Or at least some educated guesses?

How many actual restricted (unable to book RIV, VDH) points are there? Asking because to me, that seems like a small number. If RIV and VDH direct sales exceed resale points in any month, doesn't that mean the number of points able to book anywhere keeps growing?

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I see two different questions here?

In my mind, there will always be more points in play tomorrow than there were the previous day. I admit that part of the question I don't fully understand. Resale points are never taken out of play. It's just a matter of when they will be in play again. Does that make sense? There will always be more points in play tomorrow than there were today. Even if just one contract is sold. Moreover, there will never be less tomorrow than today.

As to resale points changing hands per year, this is certainly compileable. At least to an extent, as all deeds are recorded at their respective county seats. The numbers are certainly out there and a matter of the public record, but I don't think you will find it in a neat little pile anywhere. The only place that pile likely even exists is inside DVC, and they certainly have no reason nor inclination to share that data publicly. For what should be obvious reasons, they probably don't want to. Can the resale numbers be compiled? Certainly to within a margin of reasonable error. Is anyone outside Disney going to do it as an aggregate (outside companies like DVC Resale Market who obviously compile their own data but don't have access to the competition's sales data.)? More than likely not. I just don't see where there is an outside incentive to compile this data given the volume of work needed to do it with no obvious ROI that I Can see.

 

[Sandisw]

One thing to remember is that many contracts can change hands every year Bur it may not impact the ratio to the same degree. For example, I bought a resale at RIV…but if I sell it, it doesn’t impact more RIV restricted, but just a different owner.

In terms of direct, yes it’s adding more points to trade into the system, but the restrictions take some out for the newer resorts…that means the growth of points eligible for the new resorts grows slower over time.

Of course, rooms go with points so as points are added so is more inventory to book. But, what the restrictions due is give the edge to those who have direct points because they have access to old and new when trading.

 

[matt and beth]

When I added up the points for all DVC resorts, it came to roughly 79.5 million points. Aulani, RIV, and VDH are not sold out and will take at least a couple years before any one of them is sold out. VGF/BPK is close enough that I consider it sold out.

Using dvcnews.com September sales data...
VDH roughly 487,407 of 3,255,992 are sold (leaving 2.75 million)
RIV 3,843,068 of 6,739,966 sold (leaving 2.89 million)
RIV and VDH are currently the only restricted resorts and they will still take 2-3 years to sell their remaining 4.3 million of the original ~10 million points.

For comparison, all the other properties combined have just under 70 million points. (Aulani is not sold out, so probably 62-65 million points at unrestricted O14 resorts have been sold.

Is my math right?

I believe resales restrictions started in 2019.
How many resale points happen each year (obviously Covid caused significant fluctuations between panic, no travel, revenge travel, people flush with cash, etc)?
Does anyone have any data? Or at least some educated guesses?

How many actual restricted (unable to book RIV, VDH) points are there? Asking because to me, that seems like a small number. If RIV and VDH direct sales exceed resale points in any month, doesn't that mean the number of points able to book anywhere keeps growing?

Almost 7 million points total for RIV? At $217 a point? No way!

 

[Sandisw]

Almost 7 million points total for RIV? At $217 a point? No way!

6.7 million. Base price is $217, but most have paid in the $160s to $180s average since sales started

 

[maui22]

I see two different questions here?

In my mind, there will always be more points in play tomorrow than there were the previous day. I admit that part of the question I don't fully understand. Resale points are never taken out of play. It's just a matter of when they will be in play again. Does that make sense? There will always be more points in play tomorrow than there were today. Even if just one contract is sold. Moreover, there will never be less tomorrow than today.

As to resale points changing hands per year, this is certainly compileable. At least to an extent, as all deeds are recorded at their respective county seats. The numbers are certainly out there and a matter of the public record, but I don't think you will find it in a neat little pile anywhere. The only place that pile likely even exists is inside DVC, and they certainly have no reason nor inclination to share that data publicly. For what should be obvious reasons, they probably don't want to. Can the resale numbers be compiled? Certainly to within a margin of reasonable error. Is anyone outside Disney going to do it as an aggregate (outside companies like DVC Resale Market who obviously compile their own data but don't have access to the competition's sales data.)? More than likely not. I just don't see where there is an outside incentive to compile this data given the volume of work needed to do it with no obvious ROI that I Can see.

Thank you.

My apologies, I didn't word it very well.

I was hoping someone maybe took the time to track the resale data from the county comptroller website (just like Wil at DVCNews has done for direct sales).

I was curious what the number of resale restricted points sold over the last 4 year was.
Trying to compare them to direct sales.
Just curious if even 1% of the 70-75 million points in the system are resold in a year.

In the 14 years we have been owners, the only time I recall seeing resale numbers extremely high were during the great recession. If large numbers only sell when there is an economic downturn, wouldn't Disney also be hurting so they wouldn't be likely to exercise ROFR?

 

[maui22]

One thing to remember is that many contracts can change hands every year Bur it may not impact the ratio to the same degree. For example, I bought a resale at RIV…but if I sell it, it doesn’t impact more RIV restricted, but just a different owner.

In terms of direct, yes it’s adding more points to trade into the system, but the restrictions take some out for the newer resorts…that means the growth of points eligible for the new resorts grows slower over time.

Of course, rooms go with points so as points are added so is more inventory to book. But, what the restrictions due is give the edge to those who have direct points because they have access to old and new when trading.

Good point. I hadn't thought of resale contracts trading hands multiple times.

In time, wouldn't the direct edge diminish for the direct points to be able to book at the older restricted resorts?

Example, using RIV since it was the first restricted and should be the first to sell out...
Using purely fictional numbers to try to explain what I am thinking...
Around 2030, maybe 2-3% of the direct points have been resold so they are now restricted. 2-3% are now guaranteed to be used at the restricted resort.
2035, pretend the number is now 5% of direct points have been resold. Now 5% of points will only be used at RIV.
Maybe 2038 some really bad recession hits again and we see a spike in all resales.
2040 because of bad recession now 10% of the points at RIV are restricted.

 

[maui22]

Almost 7 million points total for RIV? At $217 a point? No way!

Once VGF is sold out, RIV is only WDW resort in active sales. Disney can introduce incentives if they want to increase sales.

My opinion of DVC circle of life....

New resort introduced.
Everyone is excited, so sales are really good initially from existing owners buying.
After some time, they let the initial purchase incentives end.
Sales slow.
After some time, they increase incentives.
Sales jump.
They go back and forth with incentives boosting sales.
When they are about to raise prices, incentives end for some period of time.
Sales slow.
They raise price, but offer an incentive to keep them near the price before raising them.
Incentives end, sales slow.
Repeat the incentives on and off for the sales cycle.
When a resort nears sold out, there can be a rush of people buying because they don't want to miss out.

 

[Sandisw]

Good point. I hadn't thought of resale contracts trading hands multiple times.

In time, wouldn't the direct edge diminish for the direct points to be able to book at the older restricted resorts?

Example, using RIV since it was the first restricted and should be the first to sell out...
Using purely fictional numbers to try to explain what I am thinking...
Around 2030, maybe 2-3% of the direct points have been resold so they are now restricted. 2-3% are now guaranteed to be used at the restricted resort.
2035, pretend the number is now 5% of direct points have been resold. Now 5% of points will only be used at RIV.
Maybe 2038 some really bad recession hits again and we see a spike in all resales.
2040 because of bad recession now 10% of the points at RIV are restricted.

If by 2040, let’s say those numbers hold…you still have 90% of direct points from RIV alone that can trade everywhere…in the meantime, the number of direct points at newer resorts have come online that can also trade.

Chances are, the number of direct sales will always dwarf the restricted resort points being sold on resale. So, as the direct points grow, with rooms to go with them, and resale points fall off from use at those new resorts, the balance will shift.

Now, the shift may not seem very big or meaningful for a long time, but come 2042, if this strategy continues, and they do bring back Epcot resorts with restrictions, it going be big for DVD in keeping resale points from the O9 out of new.

It’s why I believe that the decision for Poly tower goes beyond just PVB resales…obviously it’s ilocated at a location with a DVC component which means it being the same association an option..but if it was being built anywhere else. I’d bet that most would be assuming restrictions like we all assume for FW cabins.

Hopefully, we know soon!

 

[matt and beth]

6.7 million. Base price is $217, but most have paid in the $160s to $180s average since sales started

Roughly $1.2 billion purchase of points and roughly $33.5 million a year in dues. Plus what they fill in standard reservations. That's a ton of cash!

 

[Sandisw]

Roughly $1.2 billion purchase of points and roughly $33.5 million a year in dues. Plus what they fill in standard reservations. That's a ton of cash!

Sure is! And the popularity with cash guests is why I believe DVD has been content with the sales rate of RIV.

 

[maui22]

If by 2040, let’s say those numbers hold…you still have 90% of direct points from RIV alone that can trade everywhere…in the meantime, the number of direct points at newer resorts have come online that can also trade.

Chances are, the number of direct sales will always dwarf the restricted resort points being sold on resale. So, as the direct points grow, with rooms to go with them, and resale points fall off from use at those new resorts, the balance will shift.

Now, the shift may not seem very big or meaningful for a long time, but come 2042, if this strategy continues, and they do bring back Epcot resorts with restrictions, it going be big for DVD in keeping resale points from the O9 out of new.

It’s why I believe that the decision for Poly tower goes beyond just PVB resales…obviously it’s ilocated at a location with a DVC component which means it being the same association an option..but if it was being built anywhere else. I’d bet that most would be assuming restrictions like we all assume for FW cabins.

Hopefully, we know soon!

Makes sense.

In 2042 BWV and BCV may set records for sales.
BRV may be the WDW point chart bargain at that time.
Not sure what Disney decides with VB and HH.

Things may get really complex for Disney starting in 2054.
2054 SSR expiration is when things will get really interesting. SSR is currently a 13.124 million point resort. If they sell as new association, it likely takes 5-10 years to sell.
2057 OKW (7.674 million points) and AKV (7.399 million points) expires. Both are close to parks, but still require bus.