Another touring plans question

[kniquy]

We have a touring plans subscription. I love it to help with planning and creating a good flow throughout the park. I keep getting notifications of predicted crowd levels.

We are going 4/14-4/21 - I believe we started out with crowds in the 6-7 range, but have been getting updates with a recent one today noting that crowds at parks are going from a 5 to a 4 or 4 to 3.

I am not really planning our trip based on what the crowds are -- we have endured NYE so anything compared to that is a dream.

My questions are:

what information is touring plans using to make their adjustments?
Now that we are less than 60 days out, are they using the FP booking patterns or availability to help assess?
Do they have access to resort bookings/availability?

Just very curious what they base their decisions on -- or is it just a complete mystery?

 

[Robo]

Whatever they use, don't expect it to be especially accurate.
(Certainly not the difference between a single "number.")

Various of the "prediction sites" use different combinations of rating factors.
And, you will find "opposite" opinions between them.
None can be taken with much guarantee of accuracy.

Not a "slam." Just years and years of trips and reading thousands of reports.

 

[GalInSpace]

We are going the same week as you. I just hit 'evaluate' again on my custom touring plans and only a couple of the days actually changed any of the wait time for rides (down less than 5 total minutes on a couple days only). I believe these changes they are making are more of a re-calibration maybe? Anyway, no impact on our estimated wait times for our touring plans that week. I'm just happy they are not 8-9-10 level days that week!

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

We are going the same week as you. I just hit 'evaluate' again on my custom touring plans and only a couple of the days actually changed any of the wait time for rides (down less than 5 total minutes on a couple days only). I believe these changes they are making are more of a re-calibration maybe? Anyway, no impact on our estimated wait times for our touring plans that week. I'm just happy they are not 8-9-10 level days that week!

That’s correct. They recalibrated down. There’s a post about it on their blog (I’ll see if I can find the post link it). Most of the changes are just because of that recalibration and not a real change in crowd levels although I assume the opening date for TSL will affect levels. I don’t know if they made those changes yet or not.

 

[lovethattink]

That's surpring to me since the weekend of the 21st is the Darkside Challenge. Maybe they are expecting runners to rest in their rooms between run days?

 

[10CJ]

They made a recent blog post about some of the changes.

https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

They also adjust things after park hours are changed.

 

[daisydee43]

We’re going the 9th-16th and also received the email stating crowd levels had decreased.