A lot of BLT available?

[scoobdoo]

As Disney keeps raising prices on every thing, tickets, food, parking, no DME or luggage service, restrictions on park admission ... many DVCer's are selling to recover what they can before the bottom drop out. WDW is doomed if they don't change their policies quickly.

basically this

 

[RoseGold]

As Disney keeps raising prices on every thing, tickets, food, parking, no DME or luggage service, restrictions on park admission ... many DVCer's are selling to recover what they can before the bottom drop out. WDW is doomed if they don't change their policies quickly.

Ticket/food/park expenses prices have never gone anywhere but up. You'd think all this DVC inventory would show demand has dried up, but resale prices have held! The last few months have been bananas high. If you were on the fence about selling, I can see how those numbers might tip the scale.

I bought low in summer 2020, and even that I wouldn't call the bottom drop off. There's a long way to go from this high to any kind of bottom. With no new construction, resale pricing shows no sign of dropping.

 

[scoobdoo]

With no new construction, resale pricing shows no sign of dropping.

Honestly, this. Unless Chapek confirms a new DVC resort within the next 6-12 months, resale prices will continue to fall and direct sales will stagnant –– more so.

 

[Salf777]

Funny thing is I have been to the parks twice in the last month. One thing I noticed that I have never seen before was virtually every DVC kiosk I passed had people waiting and making appointments. I was at VGF 5 nights and every single time I passed the DVC kiosk people were waiting. I was on the monorail and two young couples who apparently didn't know each other both started talking about buying DVC. In years past when I passed these kiosks they were always empty. Epcot has a load of them now and people were actually in line. These younger couples were talking and one said “I wish I could talk to someone who actually owns and not someone trying to sell it to me” so naturally I chimed in and offered my thoughts. One couple was on 35 and had 3 kids and they said that after speaking with me they were definitely buying. Not to mention they said their kids “loved seeing all the characters in the resorts” which struck me because I keep reading about how the previous Disney generation doesn’t want IP in the parks. Interesting to see this new crop and if this is any indication there’s a new breed out there who likes what Disney is doing. I think Disney probably does enough market research and is appealing to a whole new generation. These younger people seem to have money and aren’t afraid to spend it. I was laughing because I walk around wearing my Peter Pan and old school characters on my shirts and all these children were wearing Luca and Coco and all the new IP.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Funny thing is I have been to the parks twice in the last month. One thing I noticed that I have never seen before was virtually every DVC kiosk I passed had people waiting and making appointments. I was at VGF 5 nights and every single time I passed the DVC kiosk people were waiting. I was on the monorail and two young couples who apparently didn't know each other both started talking about buying DVC. In years past when I passed these kiosks they were always empty. Epcot has a load of them now and people were actually in line. These younger couples were talking and one said “I wish I could talk to someone who actually owns and not someone trying to sell it to me” so naturally I chimed in and offered my thoughts. One couple was on 35 and had 3 kids and they said that after speaking with me they were definitely buying. Not to mention they said their kids “loved seeing all the characters in the resorts” which struck me because I keep reading about how the previous Disney generation doesn’t want IP in the parks. Interesting to see this new crop and if this is any indication there’s a new breed out there who likes what Disney is doing. I think Disney probably does enough market research and is appealing to a whole new generation. These younger people seem to have money and aren’t afraid to spend it. I was laughing because I walk around wearing my Peter Pan and old school characters on my shirts and all these children were wearing Luca and Coco and all the new IP.

Awesome and interesting observation. I personally didn't see the lines at the DVC kiosks when I was in WDW in August but seeing the improving direct sales report and declining resale leads me to believe that the next generation of DVCers who know nothing of the old perks will greatly value the ability to stay at Riviera and future resorts over the restrictions of legacy resorts. Living in Hawaii, I could attest that the sales office at Aulani is never bustling with potential buyers. If anything, direct sales of Aulani probably took a tremendous hit from the pandemic and the shutting out of foreign buyers from Australia, Canada, and Japan. Given the lack of newer resorts outside of Riviera, I'm not so sure how enthused the new generation of buyers are to buying direct at one of the sold out resorts. I suppose people will flock to DLT but after that, what will Disney build next? Perhaps convert more existing hotel rooms into DVC like CCV and VGF2? Convert one of the moderates? Whatever they do, I agree that the newer kids are all about the IP. I'm glad I'm old and I'll stick with my deep appreciation for the classics like the WL, VGC, and Aulani that will probably never be replicated again.

 

[davidl81]

As Disney keeps raising prices on every thing, tickets, food, parking, no DME or luggage service, restrictions on park admission ... many DVCer's are selling to recover what they can before the bottom drop out. WDW is doomed if they don't change their policies quickly.

This has nothing to do with ticket prices increasing etc, it has everything to do with resale prices being at an all time high and some owners taking advantage of a hot market who were on the fence about selling because they don’t use DVC as much as they thought they would. It’s basic economics, prices rose to a point where extra supply hit the market because some people were able to make a good profit.
If WDW is really going down hill as you suggest then we will see resale prices drop substantially. If SSR goes back to selling in the $70-80s please feel free to send me this post and I’ll admit I was wrong.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I watch VGF, and I’ve never seen this many. Not even early in lockdown, when VGF contracts were everywhere. Listings are up, prices are up!

Resale is so high it has gone higher than the cheaper direct. This is the obvious outcome of no new construction and lack of demand for RIV/AUL. And so DVC buys back OKW/SSR, all prices go up, and Disney becomes a resale broker.

This is why I think VGF2 prices are going through the roof.

VGF prices will not be going through the roof. Have you seen the direct sales data for September? Even though in my opinion VGF has more going for it than Riviera, the latter is still spectacular, and if Disney can’t sell that, they’re not going to be able to sell a hotel room whose primary feature appears to be a picnic cooler instead of a refrigerator for a massively higher cost. Say what you will, the value just isn’t there, flagship resort or not.

VGF was going for $255 a point direct when it was sold out. (I know only too well having bought some.) It will no longer be sold out. There will be millions of points to sell. A $41,000 initial buy in at $275 a point just won’t attract buyers. The price will probably be in the $225 -$235 range before incentives. Any higher and it won’t sell.

Disney needs to price this to move. They need it.

ps. But do either of us really know? No!! Will be fun to see what happens.

 

[Nabas]

I watch VGF, and I’ve never seen this many. Not even early in lockdown, when VGF contracts were everywhere. Listings are up, prices are up!

I've been closely tracker smaller VGF contracts since May.

VGF was selling like wildfire in the spring and summer. There was a period of a month or two when smaller (under 150 points) were selling within a day or two.

There now are a lot of smaller contracts available but all at high prices. Two were listed in late August, most are from September.

I would not be surprised if some VGF owners saw the high prices and decided to try to cash out.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

VGF prices will not be going through the roof. Have you seen the direct sales data for September? Even though in my opinion VGF has more going for it than Riviera, the latter is still spectacular, and if Disney can’t sell that, they’re not going to be able to sell a hotel room whose primary feature appears to be a picnic cooler instead of a refrigerator for a massively higher cost. Say what you will, the value just isn’t there, flagship resort or not.

VGF was going for $255 a point direct when it was sold out. (I know only too well having bought some.) It will no longer be sold out. There will be millions of points to sell. A $41,000 initial buy in at $275 a point just won’t attract buyers. The price will probably be in the $225 -$235 range before incentives. Any higher and it won’t sell.

Disney needs to price this to move. They need it.

ps. But do either of us really know? No!! Will be fun to see what happens.

It sure is fun to speculate though. Can’t wait for this pandemic to be over and VGF2 and DLT start selling. Very curious to see the actual price point vs actual demand or lack there of. I also wish we could find out the direct sales figures for Aulani. It’s almost like Disney wants and needs it to be a secret.

 

[VandVsmama]

One possible reason for a lot of people selling their BLT contracts is maybe they don’t like the tower room redo’s and they think that Incredibles will invade BLT, too.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

It sure is fun to speculate though. Can’t wait for this pandemic to be over and VGF2 and DLT start selling. Very curious to see the actual price point vs actual demand or lack there of. I also wish we could find out the direct sales figures for Aulani. It’s almost like Disney wants and needs it to be a secret.

What is DLT? The new Disneyland DVC?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

VGF prices will not be going through the roof. Have you seen the direct sales data for September? Even though in my opinion VGF has more going for it than Riviera, the latter is still spectacular, and if Disney can’t sell that, they’re not going to be able to sell a hotel room whose primary feature appears to be a picnic cooler instead of a refrigerator for a massively higher cost. Say what you will, the value just isn’t there, flagship resort or not.

VGF was going for $255 a point direct when it was sold out. (I know only too well having bought some.) It will no longer be sold out. There will be millions of points to sell. A $41,000 initial buy in at $275 a point just won’t attract buyers. The price will probably be in the $225 -$235 range before incentives. Any higher and it won’t sell.

Disney needs to price this to move. They need it.

ps. But do either of us really know? No!! Will be fun to see what happens.

Fall is notoriously famous for people to list their contracts. They want to sell before dues are due. Also, high resale prices are prompting people to sell. Maybe there are other variables, but these two I feel are the driving factors as to the increased listings.

As far as direct sales being low, well really what is there to buy? The numbers speak volumes. People don’t want RIV, whatever the reasons. You will most definitely see an uptick in sales once VGF 2 goes on sale. And no, it will not be for $225/pt.

 

[Minniesgal]

VGF prices will not be going through the roof. Have you seen the direct sales data for September? Even though in my opinion VGF has more going for it than Riviera, the latter is still spectacular, and if Disney can’t sell that, they’re not going to be able to sell a hotel room whose primary feature appears to be a picnic cooler instead of a refrigerator for a massively higher cost. Say what you will, the value just isn’t there, flagship resort or not.

VGF was going for $255 a point direct when it was sold out. (I know only too well having bought some.) It will no longer be sold out. There will be millions of points to sell. A $41,000 initial buy in at $275 a point just won’t attract buyers. The price will probably be in the $225 -$235 range before incentives. Any higher and it won’t sell.

Disney needs to price this to move. They need it.

ps. But do either of us really know? No!! Will be fun to see what happens.

Sales are down because they only have Riviera to sell surely. Not only is it not for everyone it has the resale restrictions on top.

 

[Sandisw]

Sales are down because they only have Riviera to sell surely. Not only is it not for everyone it has the resale restrictions on top.

Except all those things were there prior to the pandemic, and sales for the resort were similar to previous once the resort opened for those few months before things changed.

I just don’t think we can discount the current climate and it’s effect on DVC purchases.

The numbers still support new buyers for direct go for the resort. Where I think the restrictions have impacted sales is current owners, that is for sure.

I do wonder if the uptick of BLT could be those owners who want to be ready to purchase the points for the new VGF2, especially now that the MK walkway for that resort is done.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

What is DLT? The new Disneyland DVC?

Yes, DLT = Disneyland Tower

 

[CSLucas]

I've been closely tracker smaller VGF contracts since May.

VGF was selling like wildfire in the spring and summer. There was a period of a month or two when smaller (under 150 points) were selling within a day or two.

There now are a lot of smaller contracts available but all at high prices. Two were listed in late August, most are from September.

I would not be surprised if some VGF owners saw the high prices and decided to try to cash out.

As one who did just that, this is what I also think is causing the resale glut. We bought a VGF resale contract when prices were in the 170s (early 2021), used it once, and then turned around and sold it when prices skyrocketed (and immediately gave our money back to Disney for more direct points). It was a small contract so it's not like we made tons on it, but we totally stripped it and still made a small profit once you take out broker fees, maintenance fees, etc. We thought about holding out a bit longer to see if prices would continue to climb, but ultimately listed because it got to above the price we would have been willing to pay for it so the only rational move was selling. We had a full-price offer in under a week. I would imagine a lot of resale owners did in fact try to hold out longer, and now that prices seem to have peaked they aren't having as much luck selling. I don't think it's at all a reflection on the Disney experience or of people wanting to "get out". I think it's 100% just the way the market works.