A little hurricane grievance/evacuations education/ Katrina timeline.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Long post----

I am bothered that some people just do not understand hurricanes--and evacuations...and such. You think you know what you are talking about and you don't.

1. He should have used busses (not enough of them)
2.he should have used planes (well than you have stranded tourists)\
3. he should have used trains (they are slow to get and not enough room)

You might as well suggest he just beam everyone up onto the starship enteprise.

It is NOT that simple!

Stuff really sucks in New Orleans now. It has NOTHING to do with Evacuations. There was a plan to evacuate. It was executed as it should be and as it could be. Time and forecasting are the hinderances--NOT the leadership.

You only know what a hurricane is going to do based on what the National Hurricane Center issues in its advisories.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

(Tropical storm same thing--sub TS for hurricane).

The farther away a storm is---the less accurate the prediction. Lots of changes in the track--sometimes the models can agree--sometimes they look like a plate of spaghetti.

Evacuations are called for when it becomes evident that the system is threatening to a location and is for coastal communities, flood-prone areas, and mobile homes. When it becomes evident--is when the models and forecasters and National Hurricane Center says it does. The leaders have NOTHING to do with this. They cannot control it. They don't know when it hits Miami that it will head over in this direction and annihilate Lousiana and Mississippi--leveling towns and shutting down a city.

Sure--it has been foreshadowed for YEARS that an event of this magnitude would happen--but in the end...they only "know 48 hours ahead of time". It is the limitations of the weather technology. Until it gets perfected...you just don't know. So many factors steer those storms--so much can change in so little time to produce a very different outcome. That is what happened with Katrina.

Optimum circumstance--you have 48 hours to do whatever you need to do to prepare your home and evacuate if necessary...sometimes you have the projection-cone working with you to get you an extra day when a system happens to be perfectley heading your way--but the cone of prediction didn't even have LA or MS in it until 48 hours before she made landfall in LA.

So if you aren't being told that a hurricane is coming--the best plans in the world aren't going to be implemented for something that as far as technology is telling you--isn't coming to you. Why the heck would you evacuate for something that is coming nowhere near you?

Port Charlotte--a prime example of a last minute and catastrophic detour. Forecasted for hurricane force winds from a Category 2 storm along the coast....and in 2 hours, Charlie went from a 2 to a 4 and took a right turn and slammed into Port Charlotte. Sure--it "could have" happened...but it wasn't supposed to. It was heading straight for Tampa.

Heck--for hurricane Jeanne--I went to Disney for a day-trip one day--that darn woman was heading East into the Atlantic--by the time I came home--she was coming back. I had 6 hours to board up the home and the next morning to pack up the car and wait for my husband to come back from a business trip. Jeanne hit in 48 hours from her detour.

Katrina wasn't forecasted for the panhandle until Friday afternoon (she was forecasted to travel up the coast to North Florida and into Georgia).

For LA, MS, AL--the threat was not even existant in the forecast models--until Friday NIGHT--2.5 days away---evacuations were called for immediately the NEXT morning. A hurricane watch was not issued until 10am on Saturday morning. People in LA, MS, and AL in vulnerable areas had less than 48 hours to prepare...and those in the "zone" to prepare and evacuate.

The mayor had to get a court order for mandatory evacuation of the city of New Orleans. He did this--because not enough of the city was heeding the warning. That order was issued on Sunday.

He busted his but to get people out--and he made sure to have a SAFER haven in the form of a refuge of last resort. There is no bussing out 100,000 people with 48 hours notice. It is logistically and mathematically impossible. Roads are clogged with those who are leaving. Airport is jammed with tourists trying to leave. A cat 5 is announced--so the airlines decide to not bring any planes back for risk of having to leave them on the runway. There is no "beam me up scotty, get me out of this place".

So stop busting the mans chops for how this mess began. He is not a fortune teller. He is not a meteorologist. He is not God. He and all leaders along the gulf coast and eastern seaboard are dependent upon what the National Hurricane Center says.

They had a plan to evacuate the city and they implemented it as soon as they knew a hurricane was heading their way.

What is going on now has nothing to do with a failed evacuation plan. There was no failure of plan. People left, they opened refuges of last resort and the last person was checked in almost 11pm Sunday night. It saved thousands of people. Yes they are suffering now and that just sucks to the highest of heavens--but the evacuation plan had NOTHING to do with that. NOTHING.

48 hours is not enough time to go to over 1 million homes knocking on doors. The people flocking to the dome, to the convention center,and to the Interstate--they are from ALL over metropolitan New Orleans....Parishes out of the jurisdiction of the Mayor. They either chose not to leave or for whatever reason did not leave. And that is a time and weather technology issue.

Hurricane preparations and evacuation plans are only as good as the technology can faciliate. Typically--you have 48 hours. Millions of people were fleeing the coast and had 48 hours to do it. It isn't just New Orleans...it is multiple parishes and counties in 3 different states!

Unless you live in or have lived in the zone--you have NO IDEA what it takes to leave home not knowing if you can come back when a hurricane threatens!
I've been through Hugo, evac'd for Floyd (who missed!), stayed home for a hurricane that when I went to bed--was in Miami heading out to sea and when I woke up it turned and I needed a new roof, evac'd for Frances & Jeanne.

Those in the zone breathe these things with every tropical system that occurs between June 1st and November 30th.

So if you live in the midwest, the northeast--or anywhere where you do not see this each year--don't even begin to criticize the evacuaton process. You just don't get it.

RANT OVER!



Here's Katrina's history with pertinant advisories and information:

At 11am Wednesday:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH.

12 hours later....at 11pm Wednesday

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH.

5pm Thursday

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

7pm Thursday
...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS...

At this point--the cone (no longer available..I searched the hurricane thread--and the images are updated to the last image available at her last advisory as a tropical system)--has it forecasted for only Florida.

3am Friday

...CENTER OF KATRINA EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND KATRINA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY.

5am Friday--still no mention of anything but Florida--roughly 72 hours from Lousiana

...KATRINA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

2pm Friday

...KATRINA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS......TROPICAL STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

5pm Friday--this advisory moved the track 150 miles west and aimed it at the panhandle...

...KATRINA CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS......WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND FLORIDA...AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PENINSULAR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE ...MAJOR... HURRICANE TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.

9:37pm Friday post from Bet on the original hurricane thread--the path changes:

The latest models are pulling Katrina even farther west, towards New Orleans. Possible Cat 5. Very scary!!!!

11pm Friday

...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO......THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

10am Saturday--Hurricane Watch issued--less than 48 hours to go

...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

Sometime Saturday morning--Evacuations are called for SE Louisiana
Evacuations Planned As Katrina Nears Coast
12:30 PM Aug 27, 2005
APhttp://www.kbtx.com/home/headlines/1697856.html (complete article)

Low-lying Louisiana parishes called for evacuations Saturday and lines formed at gas stations in New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina appeared to be taking aim at the region while gathering strength over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.
"This is not a test," New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin said at a news conference. He said he would probably ask people to leave at daybreak Sunday, and said the Superdome could be pressed into use as a shelter of last resort for people who do not have cars.

*snip*

"Right now, it looks like Louisiana is in line for a possible direct hit," Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco said. "It does not bode well for southeastern Louisiana."
Mandatory or voluntary evacuations were called on Grand Isle, Louisiana's only inhabited barrier island, and in the parishes of St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines and St. Bernard.

Most permanent residents of Grand Isle, La., don't leave for storms, said Jeannette Ruboyianes (Roo-buh-YAH-nees), owner of the Day Dream Inn.
"You have to have money to evacuate. If you don't have it, you ride out the storm," she said. "You know, at this juncture, all we can do is pray it doesn't come this way and tear us up."

About 300,000 residents of low-lying areas of the Florida Panhandle east of Pensacola also were under voluntary evacuation orders. The military planned to move aircraft and personnel out of some Panhandle bases Saturday.
Ray Arizi, owner of a hardware store in Venice, La., a coastal fishing town, said he was selling lots of bottled water, flashlights and batteries as people made storm preparations.

"Hopefully God will save us. That's all we can say," Arizi said.

People across New Orleans were filling their gas tanks, with lines several blocks long in some places, and some pumps were out of everything but premium.

*snip*

Katrina was a Category 1 with 80 mph wind when it hit South Florida on Thursday, and rainfall was estimated at up to 20 inches. Risk modeling companies have said early estimates of insured damage range from $600 million to $2 billion. That would make Katrina much less costly than the previous hurricanes.

South Florida utility crews were still working to restore power to 850,000 customers, down from more than 1 million. Crews had to clear away fallen trees to fix aboveground lines and wait for flooding to subside to reach underground ones.

South Florida residents waited in lines that stretched for miles to reach state-operated centers distributing free water and ice for those without electricity.
Florida has been hit by six hurricanes since last August. The Panhandle was slammed by Hurricane Ivan last year, then again by Hurricane Dennis this year, both Category 3 storms.

4pm Saturday

...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

10pm Saturday

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

1AM Sunday

...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS...HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.

4AM Sunday

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

7AM Sunday

...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/paperchase/2005/08/mayor-orders-new-orleans-evacuated.php

Mayor gets court order for mandatory city evacuation:

Mayor Ray Nagin ordered the entire US city of New Orleans (population 484,674) evacuated Sunday in advance of the anticipated Gulf Coast landfall Monday morning of Hurricane Katrina...
. A mandatory evacuation order is hereby called for all of the Parish of Orleans, with only the following exceptions: essential personnel of the United States of America, State of Louisiana and City of New Orleans; essential personnel of regulated utilities and mass transportation services; essential personnel of hospitals and their patients; essential personnel of the media; essential personnel of the Orleans Parish Criminal Sheriff's Office and its inmates and essential personnel of operating hotels and their patrons. Unless covered by one of the aforementioned exceptions, every person is hereby ordered to immediately evacuate the City of New Orleans or, if no other alternative is available, to immediately move to one of the facilities within the City that will be designated as refuges of last resort.

2. In order to effectuate the mandatory evacuation, at the direction of the Mayor, the Chief Administrative Officer, the Director of Homeland Security for the City of New Orleans or any member of the New Orleans Police Department, the City may commandeer any private property, including, but not limited to, buildings that may be designated as refuges of last resort and vehicles that may be used to transport people out the area.

(and yes had the power to transport people out---but time doesn't allow that)


Midnight Monday

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE KATRINA
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST...

2AM Monday---roughly 56 hours after models shifted and suggested Katrina "could" be a threat to Florida and roughly 42 hours since they called for evacuations

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINNING TO TURN
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

4AM Monday

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...

6am Monday--less than 48 hours still since evacuations called for

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA PREPARING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA......HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...

8am Monday

...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA
POUNDING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

Sometime in the morning--weather chasers filmed the storm surge in Gulfport. Roughly 65 hours when the track shifted 150 miles west and roughly 60 hours since the models forecasted NOLA.

10am Monday

...CENTER OF POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA AGAIN MOVING ASHORE...NEAR
THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER...CONTINUES POUNDING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

Rest of the advisories and those I listed in detail:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA.shtml?

 

[mom2alix]

Wow Lisa! Very detailed information. Really makes you realize how little notice you get when a real emergency comes bearing down on you. Pretty scary.

 

[Free4Life11]

Thank you for the detailed information.

 

[goin2disneyagain]

"I am bothered that some people just do not understand hurricanes--and evacuations...and such. You think you know what you are talking about and you don't.

1. He should have used busses (not enough of them)
2.he should have used planes (well than you have stranded tourists)\
3. he should have used trains (they are slow to get and not enough room)

You might as well suggest he just beam everyone up onto the starship enteprise.

It is NOT that simple!"

I think some people just want to blame someone.

 

[MagicKingdom05]

goin2disneyagain,

Some of the blame couldn't possible be on the fact that while some couldn't leave and had no choice others did have the means to leave, but decided not to and wait the storm out. Some of those people are the same ones that are complaining about the situation that they put them selves in, by staying.

 

[Tiggeroo]

I disagree just a bit. I"ve evac'd for hurricanes and stayed for some threats, not ordered evacs. Several days out when we see it building and consider it might be here we do some little prep. We get the house ready, etc. 48 hours out when it looks serious we brave the lines at the stores and stock up if we're likely to stay or pack up and gas up if we're likely to go. And these storms were much smaller and weaker. There was a time at least at 48 hours out when it was quite clear this storm was huge and powerful. No matter where it hit at least 2 states would be slammed. Those towns such as NO were so vulnerable they knew they had to act even if it wasn't going to be a direct hit. Their town officials are responsible to have a thorough plan in place that's been practiced. They should have been able to estimate what percentage of the population would be unable to get out on their own. Their should have been neighborhood coordinators who were responsible to check on their weaker citizens. For each area of the evac somebody should have been in charge with a whole team under them. When the threat came you say, ok now we do A,B and C. Mike you call the busses into this parrish. Deb you go to these 10 apartments and help these folks get out, Phil you handle hospital evacuations, etc.
Yes there would be some glitches. Some folks would never leave, there might be trouble finding hospital relocations for everybody. Folks might have had to sleep on hs gym floors thruought the whole inland area. But it would have gone much better then what we've seen. The folks left would have been a much more manageable number. Now I'm talking about NO. The other areas had much less warning and might have felt much less threatened. And yet, in spite of the fact that this area was much more spread out, and I suspect total area damaged that wasn't NO had a greater population then NO they did a better job of it. Less folks died, less were left in the path of the storm, etc.

 

[goin2disneyagain]

goin2disneyagain,

Some of the blame couldn't possible be on the fact that while some couldn't leave and had no choice others did have the means to leave, but decided not to and wait the storm out. Some of those people are the same ones that are complaining about the situation that they put them selves in, by staying.

That is true but I think the OP was frustrated by what people were posting on these boards. But you are correct, the people that don't listen and follow the advice when they have the means to evacuate are always going to be the 1st ones to complain. I think it is Murphy's Law. The governor of LA even said that the residents had to bear some of the responsibility because they were warned.

 

[jgmklmhem]

I know you are upset but before you jump down peoples throats like say who have a location from Utah like me....you should have all the facts. I will take shots at their plan because it was inadequate. No you cannot get 100,000 people out. I agree with that. Should there have been a much better plan in place to get as many as possible out using the "not enough" buses yes!!! Even 10 busloads heading out of town is 10 less busloads we have to worry about now. If approximately 400,000 other residents could leave on their own accord and get safely out of harms way then a caravan of buses could have done the same. I have heard no reports of people being stuck on the highway when the storm hit. You post a spot or multiple spots in the city (presumably in the poorer areas and announced wayyyyyy ahead of time and publicized ad nausea throughout the year, big signs the whole deal) when the mandatory evac orders are given (or even the initial orders at least give those who have no transportation an option to leave) and say be here by _____ o'clock or you won't be heading out of town. Using city buses which they do have take who shows up and in this case due to the forecast drive to Houston (obviously have agreements with the destination cities in advance to help). Other cases would have different destinations. Would people have to be turned away…possible but at least you get out who you can. Would you maybe only fill one bus possible as well but that one busload would be gone. Minimal cost since I assume many city buses are destroyed anyways and sending buses to a certain spot to get people and take them away and the storm doesn’t hit only really costs you fuel. I will also say New Orleans is a different animal than anywhere hit in Florida due to the after effects of the flood that doesn’t recede and its almost impossibly reachable location.

And before I get hit with the you don’t have any idea what you are talking about due to my location being in Utah, I did live in FL for about 20 years and have done the evacuation dance many times even knowing my house would not flood (Opal, Elaine, Erin, TS Allison, and many others whose names now escape me). Some we left others we stayed (none were ordered evac for our area). Elaine was insteresting because it was supposed to hit P'cola dead on and then turned to go south towards Tampa at the last minute. We had gone to my Grandmother's house. When it turned south we figured it was over for us. Drove back to P'cola and I swear we were about 15 minutes from my house when we hear on the radio that it had turned and was now headed back for us. We rode it out. I have even worked for Pensacola Beach was in on planning meetings and helped institute an evacuation of the beach when Hurricane Erin was coming. Talking about time, we didn’t get word we would be a prime target until about mid-afternoon the day before it hit (heck my parents didn’t even know when we found out). We got everyone who would leave off the island by about I believe it was midnight and then closed the bridge. We also got all of our equipment secured in Gulf Breeze. I also worked during the clean up for that and other storms as well.....including Andrew. So now am I allowed to make comments about the failure to at least try to get more people out of harms way by government means.

 

[Teejay32]

Oh for God's sake. Everyone living in coastal areas including the northeast knows something about flooding, if not hurricanes, and this is as much a flood disaster as anything else....and so was Hurricane Floyd, in NC. There are tangetally related problems that I wouldn't criticise the mayor for, but the federal gov't (Bush) declared emergency in advance and personally lobbied for evacuation of New Orleans based on flooding, which would be (and is) a catastrophe of proportions unique to New Orleans.

Just fed up with people on soapboxes today. Mayor included.

 

[Tiggeroo]

Thanks JG. That's what I'm saying. We've left times when we weren't ordered, esp since we had kids. We were ready to leave, or ride out a storm in the early days when they were saying one could got to NC, or to FLA, or hit here in NJ. We were ready to leave if we had to. And if the order came in, or even if it didn't and I felt threatened we left, with enough time to get our goods to the higher floor in our home, remove our pets and at least one album of precious photos. I've also lived where bridges went out on both sides of my home and it took a very long time to have them repaired. This was handled badly and the people are reacting even worst. Sorry, these strong young men who are shooting and looting should be going to every home and store. They should find every source of water or liquid and bring it to those sickly or with babies. They should find a running vehicle or boat and get it to water drops and help distribute it to people trapped and unable to do this. If they were doing this instead of creating terror outside folks would be able to bring in even more water.I see sad footage, get teary eyed and sad, I think about what's going on and get disgusted.

 

[tiggersmom2]

Oh for God's sake. Everyone living in coastal areas including the northeast knows something about flooding, if not hurricanes, and this is as much a flood disaster as anything else....and so was Hurricane Floyd, in NC. There are tangetally related problems that I wouldn't criticise the mayor for, but the federal gov't (Bush) declared emergency in advance and personally lobbied for evacuation of New Orleans based on flooding, which would be (and is) a catastrophe of proportions unique to New Orleans.

Just fed up with people on soapboxes today. Mayor included.

I so agree...my town was DESTROYED in 1994 by the "great flood"....the Ocmulgee decided to be difficult! Hurrican Floyd also affected us. I too am tired of it.

 

[WaltD4Me]

I've been wondering this the last couple days.......

Does anyone know if the Superdome was part of a comprehensive evacuation/hurricane plan beforehand or just somewhere they told people to go because they didn't know what else to do? -- Just wondering.

 

[jgmklmhem]

I've been wondering this the last couple days.......

Does anyone know if the Superdome was part of a comprehensive evacuation/hurricane plan beforehand or just somewhere they told people to go because they didn't know what else to do? -- Just wondering.

I have wondered the same thing. If it was part of a plan then it would seem to me that supplies would have been stockpiled there at all times just in case of such an emergency including a terrorist attack. Watching things unfold the impression I had was that it was an afterthought.

 

[LisaR]

I have wondered the same thing. If it was part of a plan then it would seem to me that supplies would have been stockpiled there at all times just in case of such an emergency including a terrorist attack. Watching things unfold the impression I had was that it was an afterthought.

I do not believe the people at the Superdome were not without food and water (someone please correct me if I am wrong). It seems like all the reports I heard said they did have provisions. It was the people at the Convention Center that had nothing. However, the bathrooms were a huge issue. I wonder how they are going to prevent that problem at the Astrodome? I was just reading a comment from someone saying that the Astrodome is used to housing a lot of people for six hours maximum and during that time they are focused on an event. Now they have thousands of people with nothing to do that will be there 24/7.

Lisa

 

[jfulcer]

As far as I've heard, the Superdome has always been in the plan for being a refuge of last resort. I don't think it was intended to house that many people for that long though. Overnight, maybe. 24 hours? Sure - but then they assumed people would be going back to their houses, but couldn't and were stuck.

 

[Bunch24]

As someone who has lived in "Hurricane territory" my entire life, one thing I've learned is that it's better to be prepared than be caught unprepared. I know anytime there's a storm brewing off the coast of Africa, my family always takes the proper steps necessary.

Waiting until a Hurricane Warning is issued is just plain stupid, no matter how you slice it. If a hurricane enters the Gulf, there's a damn good chance it will hit Louisiana. If you live in Louisiana on the coast, you always have to think that way. If you live in Florida on the coast, same thing. You just have to always be prepared.

There are thousands of buses in New Orleans. Seems to me someone should have started making contingency plans very early on, in the event that the hurricane comes their way. But no, they waited until a hurricane watch was issued, then a hurricane warning. By then, it's too late. Bridges have to close for safety reasons, and New Orleans is an island when its bridges are closed.

Scientists have been predicting this for years and right now, as cruel as it sounds, there are some that are saying "Told you so."

I place the blame squarely on the shoulders of the people who chose to wait until the last minute. If you're disabled, start making plans. If you're poor, go to your city hall and find out what means they are taking to get you out of the city. Don't try to ride it out. If you do, guess what, you might get stranded on the island of New Orleans until water recedes enough for trucks/buses to enter the area.

Seems to me like it's just common sense.

If you lived near a volcano, would you wait until you saw lava flowing to abandon your house? If you lived near a forest, would you wait until the fire is a couple of trees away before you leave?

The answer is no. And no matter what people say, I know you can't predict a hurricane's path, but you can sure well prepare for it in the event that it comes your way. If you don't that's your fault and nobody else's.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

And before I get hit with the you don’t have any idea what you are talking about due to my location being in Utah, I did live in FL for about 20 years and have done the evacuation dance many times

I did say "If you don't live or haven't ever lived...."

You have lived in it--so there is no need to defend yourself.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Even 10 busloads heading out of town is 10 less busloads we have to worry about now.

*snip*

You post a spot or multiple spots in the city (presumably in the poorer areas and announced wayyyyyy ahead of time and publicized ad nausea throughout the year, big signs the whole deal) when the mandatory evac orders are given (or even the initial orders at least give those who have no transportation an option to leave) and say be here by _____ o'clock or you won't be heading out of town.

*snip*

Minimal cost since I assume many city buses are destroyed anyways and sending buses to a certain spot to get people and take them away and the storm doesn’t hit only really costs you fuel.

*snip*

Talking about time, we didn’t get word we would be a prime target until about mid-afternoon the day before it hit (heck my parents didn’t even know when we found out).

They don't own school busses--they use city busses. Those city busses were used at bus stops around Orleans Parish (the city of New Orleans) to move people ot the Superdome. Had those same busses been used to transport people out of town--far less could have moved.....and many many more would have died.

This has nothing to do with unpreparedness---this has to do with evacuating millions of people. Grand Isle and the other parishes were not faced with the predicament of moving 100,000 without transportation....and do not find themsevles in the same problem.

Someone said they have 1000s of city busses....

Let's pretend that those busses have spaces for 45 (I do not know the #).
Out of the thousands left in the city---that is 45,000---and if the busses were lucky enough to make a round trip--that is 90,000. Who decides who stays behind and dies?

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Waiting until a Hurricane Warning is issued is just plain stupid, no matter how you slice it. If a hurricane enters the Gulf, there's a damn good chance it will hit Louisiana. If you live in Louisiana on the coast, you always have to think that way. If you live in Florida on the coast, same thing. You just have to always be prepared.

I didn't say wait until watch or warning--but you don't start implementing government ordered evacuations until the National Hurricane Center predictions indicate a liklihood of being stricken.

I always prepare---but I don't go and make hotel reservations and pack my car up for every Tropical Depression that pops its head up. I watch, wait, and pay attention. And who's to say that anyone didn't do that.


They didn't say wait unitl a "watch" was issued. I think it is circumstance that has evacuations going about the time watches are issued. Not that they waited for it--I do not have a timelien of the governemnt b/c it isn't out there. The hurricane center pretty much had them "in the clear" on Friday.

I'm not talking about the general possibility and vulnerability that exists by geography of a hurricane striking--I'm talking about possibility when it comes to path prediction. Those are 2 different things.

It is possible for a house to be hit by my hurricane in the next 72 hours--but at the moment it is impossible b/c there are no disturbances predicted right now.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

If you lived near a volcano, would you wait until you saw lava flowing to abandon your house? If you lived near a forest, would you wait until the fire is a couple of trees away before you leave?

The answer is no. And no matter what people say, I know you can't predict a hurricane's path, but you can sure well prepare for it in the event that it comes your way. If you don't that's your fault and nobody else's.

I agree somewhat---but there are also not people evacuating now in the event that Mount Saint Helens blows tomorrow when she has sign no signs of doing that today.


As for your second--I can agree somewhat....but there will always be those who cannot help themselves either. And I was not speaking of personal responsibility...but the magical responsibility that some think lies on the governor to get all these people out of harms way. He had 48 hours to do it...and it wasn't enough time for him to personally move all those people.